July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

And now surprisingly it's very sunny here this morning already. Beautiful out there.

looks mostly cloudy everywhere else down that way, though.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/vis1km/x201607311530.gif.pagespeed.ic.Et6ZDwlbt7.jpg

[TT-SEA]

looks mostly cloudy everywhere else down that way, though.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/vis1km/x201607311530.gif.pagespeed.ic.Et6ZDwlbt7.jpg

 

 

Yes... but its thin.   Live view here...

 

[TT-SEA]

Despite showing the clouds clearing away this morning... the WRF is slightly cooler than yesterday.   Pretty much guaranteed to be a little below normal even with sunshine.   Nice day.

 

Tomorrow is several degrees warmer on the WRF.

 

Tight little ULL for Tuesday....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_060_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

And then a quick rebound on Wednesday...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

And then the next ULL seems to be taking a more northerly track now...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_108_500_vort_ht.gif

[MossMan]

Despite showing the clouds clearing away this morning... the WRF is slightly cooler than yesterday. Pretty much guaranteed to be a little below normal even with sunshine. Nice day.

 

Tomorrow is several degrees warmer on the WRF.

 

Tight little ULL for Tuesday....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_060_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

And then a quick rebound on Wednesday...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

And then the next ULL seems to be taking a more northerly track now...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_108_500_vort_ht.gif

Looks like today is a good day to weed and weedeat!

[Front Ranger]

I was forced to forecast for other locations in the contest.  

 

I only forecasted for the Puget Sound region this month.    As I almost always have done since joining this forum in 2005.  

 

I don't care about what happens in other places enough to forecast for those regions.   Plus I know the Puget Sound region best because I live here and watch the weather happening every day.  

 

You do realize that OLM is actually more a part of the Puget Sound region than BLI, right? Also closer to where you live. And yet you've referenced BLI many times.

[Front Ranger]

If Tim is correct about warmer temps east of the Cascades producing cooler inversions west of the Cascades, then the trough late next week could be cooler than it would appear from 850s/heights.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

If Tim is correct about warmer temps east of the Cascades producing cooler inversions west of the Cascades, then the trough late next week could be cooler than it would appear from 850s/heights.

 

ps2png-atls18-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-duAdVl.png

 

 

Possible... problem is that the ULL provides mixing.

 

The detailed surface map for that exact time...

 

 

[TT-SEA]

You do realize that OLM is actually more a part of the Puget Sound region than BLI, right? Also closer to where you live. And yet you've referenced BLI many times.

 

 

I think of OLM as being just south of the Puget Sound region.   

 

Its certainly on the edge of the large region from Vancouver Island and lower BC down through the San Juan Islands and Seattle/Tacoma.   Bellingham is sort of in the middle.   And I realize they do not call it the Puget Sound in Canada but its the same body of water.   And Victoria is actually west of Mt. Vernon.   

[TT-SEA]

Barely a cloud in the sky here now... clouds retreating westward quickly.

 

Very fast given the strong push last night.   

 

Must be a surface ridge building in now.

 

[TT-SEA]

Very nice pattern on the 12Z GFS through the end of the run.  

[Abbotsford_wx]

Pretty much solid overcast here this morning. Might even pull of a negative departure today. Yesterday was +2.5F

[TT-SEA]

Pretty much solid overcast here this morning. Might even pull of a negative departure today. Yesterday was +2.5F

 

 

Yeah... clouds are pretty thick up there and over the Puget Sound and not really breaking up.   Over the Portland area as well.

[Phil]

Never dropped again.

 

That was the low and it's 57 at 6 a.m. there.

 

OLM will cool quickly and clear, calm nights. It was breezy and turbulent last night.

 

A marine push night with clouds rolling in is the opposite of what it takes. That is why I said your 50 by midnight comment demonstrated a lack of knowledge of our climate.

More like you got lucky. Everywhere else continued to drop.

 

Clouds didn't roll in for several hours and the dewpoint depression increased to -7.

[Geos]

looks mostly cloudy everywhere else down that way, though.

 

 

That's a good shot with the low clouds around the Olympics. 

 

There's a few patches of blue sky here, but it hasn't cleared out like North Bend.

[Front Ranger]

I think of OLM as being just south of the Puget Sound region.   

 

Its certainly on the edge of the large region from Vancouver Island and lower BC down through the San Juan Islands and Seattle/Tacoma.   Bellingham is sort of in the middle.   And I realize they do not call it the Puget Sound in Canada but its the same body of water.   And Victoria is actually west of Mt. Vernon.   

 

But I thought you only care about the areas closest to you? Why the heck would you care about the weather in Canada?

[TT-SEA]

More like you got lucky. Everywhere else continued to drop.

 

Clouds didn't roll in for several hours and the dewpoint depression increased to -7.

 

 

Lucky?

 

No.  

 

It was not going to be a cool, calm night in Olympia.   I know how marine pushes work.   You would too if you lived here.   

 

OLM had bottomed at that time... Seattle was next.  

[TT-SEA]

But I thought you only care about the areas closest to you? Why the heck would you care about the weather in Canada?

 

 

I care about the weather in King County the most.   Obviously.   I am in the dead center of King County.   

 

My parents live in Bellingham.    We spend lots of time there.

 

The weather in the Puget Sound region is what I know best.    

[Front Ranger]

I care about the weather in King County the most.   Obviously.   I am in the dead center of King County.   

 

My parents live in Bellingham.    We spend lots of time there.

 

The weather in the Puget Sound region is what I know best.    

 

Ok, just pointing out that OLM is actually closer to you and more the Puget Sound region (it's right by the Puget Sound) than BLI. 

[Phil]

12z Canadian stalls that second ULL right over Tim's head.

 

Doesn't ever get above normal through d10.

[TT-SEA]

Ok, just pointing out that OLM is actually closer to you and more the Puget Sound region (it's right by the Puget Sound) than BLI. 

 

Yeah... and Ellensburg is close as well.   Sort of meaningless to me though.

[TT-SEA]

12z Canadian stalls that second ULL right over Tim's head.

 

 

Should be lovely then... good mixing.   Need rain.

 

And we are leaving town on Thursday for almost 2 weeks anyways.   Unfortunate because it looks like summer perfection while we are gone.   I generally hate leaving here in the summer.

[Phil]

Lucky?

 

No.

 

It was not going to be a cool, calm night in Olympia. I know how marine pushes work. You would too if you lived here.

 

OLM had bottomed at that time... Seattle was next.

Then why did PDX & SEA cool further with stronger winds and lower dewpoint depressions?

[Front Ranger]

Yeah... and Ellensburg is close as well.   Sort of meaningless to me though.

 

Just going by what you've said. You can subjectively care about wherever you want, but you said it was based on what was closest to you. And you've repeatedly said the "Puget Sound region".

 

Logically then, the anomalies at OLM should matter more to you than BLI.

[TT-SEA]

Just going by what you've said. You can subjectively care about wherever you want, but you said it was based on what was closest to you. And you've repeatedly said the "Puget Sound region".

 

Logically then, the anomalies at OLM should matter more to you than BLI.

 

 

Clearly do not though. 

 

My parents are in Bellingham and so are we all the time... I am almost never in Olympia.

 

It is what it is.  Obviously subjective because it a matter of personal preference.  

[TT-SEA]

Then why did PDX & SEA cool further with stronger winds and lower dewpoint depressions?

 

Heading out to pick blueberries... no time for this.

 

Talk to Dewey.   

 

He will let you know how it works.    

 

I knew OLM was not going to just keep dropping on a marine push night like they do on a clear, calm night.    

 

It was windy as hell here last night.    Very turbulent.   And mostly cloudy.   Did not feel like a night for maximum cooling potential.  

[snow_wizard]

Clouds are very solid here as of 11am.  We may finally pull off a cloudy day all the way through.  Not real confident though given the track record this month.

[snow_wizard]

Mild morning, currently 59 degrees!

 

Why are you so obsessed with being mild / warm?  A cool summer would be a big change from what has been normal this century so far.  We need to break out of the rut we have been in.

[TT-SEA]

Why are you so obsessed with being mild / warm? A cool summer would be a big change from what has been normal this century so far. We need to break out of the rut we have been in.

We don't control it Jim.

[Deweydog]

Did Olympia even drop below average last night?

[TT-SEA]

Clearing in Seattle now. Clearing line is moving your way Jim.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty warm out here picking blueberries. 12Z ECMWF is a warm run overall. Tuesday system looks good too. Next ULL never drops down... just keeps temps in check. Goldilocks summer continues.

[Front Ranger]

Clearly do not though. 

 

My parents are in Bellingham and so are we all the time... I am almost never in Olympia.

 

It is what it is.  Obviously subjective because it a matter of personal preference.  

 

There you go.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty warm out here picking blueberries. 12Z ECMWF is a warm run overall. Tuesday system looks good too. Next ULL never drops down... just keeps temps in check. Goldilocks summer continues.

 

Monday looks near normal. Tuesday below. Wednesday slightly below. Thursday warm. Friday near normal. Sat/Sun probably a little below.

 

Unless, of course, your statements only apply to SEA. Which you have acknowledged does not reflect the region when it comes to anomalies.

[Phil]

Pretty warm out here picking blueberries. 12Z ECMWF is a warm run overall. Tuesday system looks good too. Next ULL never drops down... just keeps temps in check. Goldilocks summer continues.

Enjoy the cool anomalies.

 

 

[Phil]

So, looks like we'll get to test Tim's "warm inland anomalies" theory.

[TT-SEA]

Ahhh Phil... trying to shoot me down again. 12Z ECMWF is a warm run for the Puget Sound region overall.

 

I know it by sight alone on the 500mb and 850mb combined ECMWF map.

 

No debate necessary.

 

It's a fine line to get a cool inversion pattern. It's not just warmer 850mb temps means inversion.

 

Seattle and Bellingham will be above normal through Aug 10

[TT-SEA]

Remember Phil... we are leaving for MN. And I would LOVE to be here to enjoy the pattern shown in the models.

 

Upper 70s and sunny. I don't care what you call that... I wold "enjoy" it immensely. Wish we did not have to leave.

[Front Ranger]

Ahhh Phil... trying to shoot me down again. 12Z ECMWF is a warm run for the Puget Sound region overall.

 

I know it by sight alone on the 500mb and 850mb combined ECMWF map.

 

No debate necessary.

 

It's a fine line to get a cool inversion pattern. It's not just warmer 850mb temps means inversion.

 

Seattle and Bellingham will be above normal through Aug 10

 

Why just Seattle and Bellingham?

 

I said a couple days ago that it looked like most the region should be a little below normal for the first week of August. Still looks that way, at the warmest near normal...above normal does not look likely.

 

Saying the Euro was a "warm run" was misleading. Nothing new...you just continue to trumpet your agenda.

[TT-SEA]

Why just Seattle and Bellingham?

 

I said a couple days ago that it looked like most the region should be a little below normal for the first week of August. Still looks that way, at the warmest near normal...above normal does not look likely.

 

Saying the Euro was a "warm run" was misleading. Nothing new...you just continue to trumpet your agenda.

Said it's a warm run for the Puget Sound area. And it is.

 

Other than Tuesday.

 

Just a fact.

 

Perfect set up for the Seattle area and Bellingham and VI and lower BC to be warmer than normal again.

[Front Ranger]

Everyone knows I love OLM because it doesn't have the UHI issues of some other stations. Aside from that, I also like that it's in between the Portland and Seattle metro areas. It's a happy medium that generally does a good job of showing what's going on for the region, anomaly-wise.

 

July ends up right around normal, slightly above at OLM. And that reflects the type of month it was overall for the western lowlands.