July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

More rain thunder on the way then?

 

 

Looks active in your area now.  

[Phil]

18Z GFS been too aggressive in both directions lately.

Yeah, its skill scores have tanked, as have the ECMWF's. Until the tropical cyclones in the EPAC are figured out, I think the models will continue to struggle.

[seattleweatherguy]

Looks active in your area now.

Nice I have not heard much yet

[TT-SEA]

Looks like much more sun for the Seattle area the next 3 afternoons... today was likely the coolest day with the deformation zone.

[seattleweatherguy]

Next week looks better!

[TT-SEA]

Looks like 70/60 so far at SEA.... that is a -1.

 

I was thinking there would be a bigger negative departure today.

 

For those keeping score... 77/63 at PDX with a 0 departure.   

[Front Ranger]

Specifically my forecast for July. Which was based on local history using the analogs that Phil led me to when it became obvious that Phil was right about the quick transition.

 

My forecasts this month have only been for SEA. And only based on what will be happening in my area.

 

I have never said that it has been warm across the region. Never implied it. Just that the Seattle area and northward is experiencing a relatively normal July despite the troughing and cool pattern across the region as a whole.

 

Again... I always focus on King County. Good or bad.

 

You will not find one post from me about how the Seattle area is representative of the entire PNW. In fact I have said the opposite when discussing the overall pattern and the region on a large scale. I have said its been cool overall numerous times.

 

But in the Seattle area its been pretty normal. That is where many of us live. Certainly what I care about most. Always have. Its been pretty nice... today is an exception.

Ok. But SEA has still been proven to run warm. So only referencing them still likely skews the picture even for just the Seattle area.

[TT-SEA]

Ok. But SEA has still been proven to run warm. So only referencing them still likely skews the picture even for just the Seattle area.

 

So Renton and WFO SEA average so much warmer than SEA?

 

So when its 79 at SEA yesterday and 80 at WFO SEA... then SEA is not representing the Seattle area?    How about when it was 76 at SEA on Tuesday and 77 at WFO SEA?

 

The average cannot be that different.   

 

Through 7/17... the average high at WFO SEA has been 73.3 and for SEA its been 73.2.

[TT-SEA]

Quicker update version of SEA shows 72 now... if that is the new high then today ended up at 0.       

 

Sun is shining here now as well.

[Deweydog]

So Renton and WFO SEA average so much warmer than SEA?

 

So when its 79 at SEA yesterday and 80 at WFO SEA... then SEA is not representing the Seattle area? How about when it was 76 at SEA on Tuesday and 77 at WFO SEA?

 

The average cannot be that different.

 

Through 7/17... the average high at WFO SEA has been 73.3 and for SEA its been 73.2.

I think it's fair to say the Seattle area hasn't been as much of a regional indicator this month as you'd like to think and flation has a tendency to run too far with the SEA = damaged goods soap box.

 

Two worlds collide.

[TT-SEA]

I think it's fair to say the Seattle area hasn't been as much of a regional indicator this month as you'd like to think and flation has a tendency to run too far with the SEA = damaged goods soap box.

Two worlds collide.

Regional? SEA is not representative of the region at all. It is representative of the Seattle area.

[Front Ranger]

I think it's fair to say the Seattle area hasn't been as much of a regional indicator this month as you'd like to think and flation has a tendency to run too far with the SEA = damaged goods soap box.

 

Two worlds collide.

How have I run too far? Tim's only made about 3,000 SEA anomaly related posts this month. I would say my response falls a bit short of his obsession.

[Deweydog]

Regional? SEA is not representative of the region at all. It is representative of the Seattle area.

That's pretty much what I said.

[TT-SEA]

How have I run too far? Tim's only made about 3,000 SEA anomaly related posts this month. I would say my response falls a bit short of his obsession.

I report excessive rain stats as well... don't like that but it's happened frequently in the Seattle the last 2 years.

[Front Ranger]

So Renton and WFO SEA average so much warmer than SEA?

 

So when its 79 at SEA yesterday and 80 at WFO SEA... then SEA is not representing the Seattle area? How about when it was 76 at SEA on Tuesday and 77 at WFO SEA?

 

The average cannot be that different.

 

Through 7/17... the average high at WFO SEA has been 73.3 and for SEA its been 73.2.

I can't speak for the other stations. Doesn't matter...we know for a fact that SEA's anomalies skew quite warm. It's been proven for over 10 years to be significant. So saying that it's been a normal month because SEA has been "normal" doesn't hold much weight.

[Deweydog]

How have I run too far? Tim's only made about 3,000 SEA anomaly related posts this month. I would say my response falls a bit short of his obsession.

His current obsession is related to this irrational need for Tim/Phil to fit this month into a preconceived box. Yours is more long running but far less spazzy.

[TT-SEA]

I can't speak for the other stations. Doesn't matter...we know for a fact that SEA's anomalies skew quite warm. It's been proven for over 10 years to be significant. So saying that it's been a normal month because SEA has been "normal" doesn't hold much weight.

Unless the Seattle area is warmer now due to UHI. Maybe it's not SEA but rather the Seattle area.

[Front Ranger]

I report excessive rain stats as well... don't like that but it's happened frequently in the Seattle the last 2 years.

Yes, but earlier this month you were also comparing SEA's anomalies to AST, BLI, SLE, and EUG. Made some comments about the pattern and the whole region...odd.

[ShawniganLake]

If only there was a station that fairly consistently ran cooler than most of the region. Then we could have something to frequently reference when the majority of the region is running positive anomalies.

[Front Ranger]

His current obsession is related to this irrational need for Tim/Phil to fit this month into a preconceived box. Yours is more long running but far less spazzy.

Thanks.

 

I generally only bring it up when it seems to be overlooked.

[Front Ranger]

Unless the Seattle area is warmer now due to UHI. Maybe it's not SEA but rather the Seattle area.

Certainly possible. I imagine there's a few outlying stations in King County where you could do a comparison.

[TT-SEA]

Yes, but earlier this month you were also comparing SEA's anomalies to AST, BLI, SLE, and EUG. Made some comments about the pattern and the whole region...odd.

Trying to find evidence that SEA was in line with other stations and not completely on its own. This is your debate... I am offering some contrary evidence when possible. I don't think SEA runs warmer than reality. I think the temps there are generally reflected in other Seattle area stations. So if it's real... then there is something else in play. Like the Seattle area has grown. Maybe the Sound runs 1-2 degrees warmer than it used to thanks to more pollution?

[TT-SEA]

That's pretty much what I said.

 

So we are saying the same thing?

 

You agree that SEA is generally representative of the Seattle area?

 

It also seems to be representative this month of the area from Seattle up to Vancouver BC which has been normal or a little warmer than normal.

 

SEA is not representative of the entire PNW this month. Neither is Bellingham.

[Deweydog]

So we are saying the same thing?

 

You agree that SEA is generally representative of the Seattle area?

 

It also seems to be representative this month of the area from Seattle up to Vancouver BC which has been normal or a little warmer than normal.

 

SEA is not representative the entire PNW this month. Neither is Bellingham.

Probably.

 

At any rate, way too much is made of what happens at that airport.

[Front Ranger]

I will say, Tim's call for the ridging to expand west in the second half of this month is looking much better. Though really, it's just been a fairly normal summer ridge that looks to move more to the traditional 4 corners high, instead of a monster heat ridge expanding further west.

[Phil]

I will say, Tim's call for the ridging to expand west in the second half of this month is looking much better. Though really, it's just been a fairly normal summer ridge that looks to move more to the traditional 4 corners high, instead of a monster heat ridge expanding further west.

Looks more like a discontinuous retrogression to me, with height rises propagating west under the WAF maximum out of the tropics. The death ridge splits beforehand.

[TT-SEA]

I will say, Tim's call for the ridging to expand west in the second half of this month is looking much better. Though really, it's just been a fairly normal summer ridge that looks to move more to the traditional 4 corners high, instead of a monster heat ridge expanding further west.

 

 

Thanks for the recognition.  

[Front Ranger]

Trying to find evidence that SEA was in line with other stations and not completely on its own. This is your debate... I am offering some contrary evidence when possible. I don't think SEA runs warmer than reality. I think the temps there are generally reflected in other Seattle area stations. So if it's real... then there is something else in play. Like the Seattle area has grown. Maybe the Sound runs 1-2 degrees warmer than it used to thanks to more pollution?

 

I don't think so either. The temps are real, and probably reflect the Seattle metro fairly well. However, that also makes comparisons to "normal" a warped exercise, since UHI makes patterns that in the past would have resulted in a little below normal "normal", and patterns that would have been normal in the past a little "above normal". 

 

Point being, there's a difference between saying it reflects the current city temps and saying the temp anomaly reflects the weather pattern accurately.

[TT-SEA]

Probably.

 

At any rate, way too much is made of what happens at that airport.

 

 

So if the Seattle area just runs warmer and its real... then that is just the way it is.    

 

Global warming, increased development, pollution, warmer water in an area surrounded by water.     Who knows?  

 

Its one thing to say the sensor is bad or they put the sensor in the middle of a runway heated by passing jets passing directly overhead... its very different to say that the Seattle area is just warmer than it used to be.    My guess is the second one.   

[Front Ranger]

Looks more like a discontinuous retrogression to me, with height rises propagating west under the WAF maximum out of the tropics. The death ridge splits beforehand.

 

Has it really been a death ridge, though? Seems to me like a case of the modeling overdoing reality.

 

I posted this image in Mountain West thread.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Thanks for the recognition.  

 

Life's not fair, but I try to be. 

[TT-SEA]

I don't think so either. The temps are real, and probably reflect the Seattle metro fairly well. However, that also makes comparisons to "normal" a warped exercise, since UHI makes patterns that in the past would have resulted in a little below normal "normal", and patterns that would have been normal in the past a little "above normal". 

 

Point being, there's a difference between saying it reflects the current city temps and saying the temp anomaly reflects the weather pattern accurately.

 

 

We just said the same thing.   

 

For those of us who live and work here... it is reality.     Probably not as much at my house... but our activities are usually in the Seattle area in the summer and even much of the rest of the year.  

 

I get what you are saying from a meteorological perspective though.  

 

Jim is convinced that SEA is just so freaky different and does not represent reality in any way.   Sometimes he makes rash comments without even looking at the satellite for the most obvious answer.    I was thinking you were making the same argument on broad scale.

[Front Ranger]

We just said the same thing.   

 

For those of us who live and work here... it is reality.     Probably not as much at my house... but our activities are usually in the Seattle area in the summer.    

 

I get what you are saying from a meteorological perspective though.  

 

Jim is convinced that SEA is just so freaky different and does not represent reality in any way.   Sometimes he makes rash comments without even looking at the satellite for the most obvious answer.    I was thinking you were making the same argument on broad scale.

 

Ok. Then why have you spent so much time posting about the anomalies then, if that's not the meaningful part? 

[Deweydog]

We just said the same thing.

 

For those of us who live and work here... it is reality. Probably not as much at my house... but our activities are usually in the Seattle area in the summer and even much of the rest of the year.

 

I get what you are saying from a meteorological perspective though.

 

Jim is convinced that SEA is just so freaky different and does not represent reality in any way. Sometimes he makes rash comments without even looking at the satellite for the most obvious answer. I was thinking you were making the same argument on broad scale.

So it all comes down to Jim...

[TT-SEA]

Ok. Then why have you spent so much time posting about the anomalies then, if that's not the meaningful part? 

 

We forecasted the anomalies.   

 

And I used anomalies to describe how I thought July would play out in Seattle.  

[TT-SEA]

So it all comes down to Jim...

 

 

No... I thought Jared and Jim were on the same page about SEA.   

 

Looks like that is not the case.  

[Front Ranger]

We forecasted the anomalies.   

 

And I used anomalies to describe how I thought July would play out in Seattle.  

 

You mean in the summer forecast contest? You had the entire region easily above normal. I don't remember you forecasting anomalies anywhere else.

[TT-SEA]

You mean in the summer forecast contest? You had the entire region easily above normal. I don't remember you forecasting anomalies anywhere else.

That was done in late May to participate in the contest. I have been primarily talking about the Seattle forecast specifically this month. Obviously cooler than I thought back in late May. Been over that.

[TT-SEA]

Speaking of Seattle... pretty evening.

 

[snow_wizard]

At least PDX has a decent negative anomaly going for the month.  I have found it frustrating overall that nearly constant subnormal 850s have led to normal temps for the Central Puget Sound.  Much of the NW has been cool.

 

SEA could have put up a big minus today since they were 62 at 2:30pm.  They managed to rise 9 degrees after that though.  It only made 67 here, but SEA is where everyone looks for departures from normal.  It does appear the Central Puget Sound has been warmer in relation to normal compared to most inland areas, but SEA has been a notch warmer as usual the past few years.  I still come to the conclusion that station is pretty useless now for tracking climate change because it has been skewed by several factors.