TT-SEA Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 06Z GFS was pretty warm for later next week like the 00Z ECMWF. Although the 06Z GFS ensemble members look more like the ECMWF ensemble mean. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 My gut tells me this will turn out like the "heat event" at the end of July. The models were spitting out some pretty extreme solutions in the 6-10 day range, only to be greatly modified by the time they got into the close range. It seems they were underestimating the influence of the offshore ridge then, and they may be doing that again now. Of course I could be wrong. I won't lie, a couple 100 degree days in the middle of August (late-April sun angles!) would be interesting. Extreme heat events this time of year tend to be followed by big crashes/prolonged cool periods too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 It was clear and in the mid-50s around sunrise here in Tigard, but in the last half hour marine clouds have drifted in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 It was clear and in the mid-50s around sunrise here in Tigard, but in the last half hour marine clouds have drifted in.Could finally score that elusive sub-70 day???? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 Could finally score that elusive sub-70 day???? You really haven't been looking at the models, have you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 The 6z GFS is pretty awesome for much of week 2. It kind of makes sense the anomalous GOA ridge will pop up again before too long. It's the default pattern this summer. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 There are already papers being published on the "unprecedented" nature of the 2015-16 QBO. Solid read: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070373/abstract Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 There is currently a 1.2 degree difference between the August anomaly at SEA and OLM (-1.6 to -2.8). I expect that difference will only go up with the pattern the next 7 days or so. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 There is currently a 1.2 degree difference between the August anomaly at SEA and OLM (-1.6 to -2.8). I expect that difference will only go up with the pattern the next 7 days or so.Probably mostly due to lows. Both PDX and SEA will have trouble dropping much below 60 over the next week, and average lows start dropping soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 There is currently a 1.2 degree difference between the August anomaly at SEA and OLM (-1.6 to -2.8). I expect that difference will only go up with the pattern the next 7 days or so. I'm shocked that SEA managed a -1.6. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 I'm shocked that SEA managed a -1.6.There is a reason we haven't seen many hourly anomaly tracking posts from Tim lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 The 12z GFS is in good agreement with the 0z ECMWF ensemble mean at day 10. Not looking bad for the final third of the month... at this point at least. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 There is a reason we haven't seen many hourly anomaly tracking posts from Tim lately. It will be interesting to see how often Tim posts when the GOA ridge starts to yield big minus anoms in the fall. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 There is a reason we haven't seen many hourly anomaly tracking posts from Tim lately.July is over dummy. Already said it's been cool. That will be erased in the monthly departures soon. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 The 12z GFS is in good agreement with the 0z ECMWF ensemble mean at day 10. Not looking bad for the final third of the month... at this point at least.Yup, the 12z GFS is much more moderate for next week. I'm thinking last night's Euro was a freak run, for now... All that puking for nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 It will be interesting to see how often Tim posts when the GOA ridge starts to yield big minus anoms in the fall. All the time. I always post. Unlike you. And it probably won't happen until I am excited to see below normal weather in mid-October. Nina falls usually get off to a slow start. The opposite of Ninos. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 Sure would like to avoid extreme heat next week. Moderate warmth is much more sustainable. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 Probably mostly due to lows. Both PDX and SEA will have trouble dropping much below 60 over the next week, and average lows start dropping soon. Yup. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 All the time. I always post. Unlike you. And it probably won't happen until I am excited to see below normal weather in mid-October. Nina falls usually get off to a slow start. The opposite of Ninos. Nah, a Nino fall is much more likely to see persistent warmth well into October. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 Nah, a Nino fall is much more likely to see persistent warmth well into October.Well... a strong Nino pulled off a cool September last year. I certainly liked that month. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 Nah, a Nino fall is much more likely to see persistent warmth well into October.Since 1950, Niñas have produced cool Septembers in the PNW more frequently than Niños by almost a 4-1 margin. So yeah, it's not even close, actually. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 Since 1950, Niñas have produced cool Septembers in the PNW more frequently than Niños by almost a 4-1 margin. So yeah, it's not even close, actually.I must be thinking that Ninos are better at producing early arctic intrusions then. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 It will be interesting to see how often Tim posts when the GOA ridge starts to yield big minus anoms in the fall.It's gonna be crazy. He'll be too busy to post, desperately trying to save his plantlife from the droves of hard freezes. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 It will be interesting to see how often Tim posts when the GOA ridge starts to yield big minus anoms in the fall.Probably more than we'd all like him to, still. But you won't be seeing hourly temp/anomaly updates during the cool periods. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 12z cmc is all in for full retrogression next week. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 So, heat advisories in Portland for mid 90s highs? That criteria is kind of silly if you ask me. Heat indices probably won't even approach 100 degrees, so pretty much everyone should manage quite easily. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 So, heat advisories in Portland for mid 90s highs? That criteria is kind of silly if you ask me. Heat indices probably won't even approach 100 degrees, so pretty much everyone should manage quite easily.They're contractually required to issue at least five per summer so they're in catch up mode, regardless of actual temps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 I must be thinking that Ninos are better at producing early arctic intrusions then.Yeah, PNW Arctic blasts during Niño winters are almost always focused in the first half of DJF, with the highest concentration focused in December. Also, FWIW, the vast majority of said Niño blasts occurred during -QBO winters. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 Since 1950, Niñas have produced cool Septembers in the PNW more frequently than Niños by almost a 4-1 margin. So yeah, it's not even close, actually. Add in October, and the evidence is even stronger. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 So, heat advisories in Portland for mid 90s highs? That criteria is kind of silly if you ask me. Heat indices probably won't even approach 100 degrees, so pretty much everyone should manage quite easily.Pretty lame. I think they're just bored. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 Add in October, and the evidence is even stronger.Wouldn't surprise me. Haven't actually run the numbers on October, so don't know what the ratio is, but I'd guess it's at least on par with September's. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 Pretty lame. I think they're just bored.Heat indices in the mid-90s? Eskimos and Polar Bears are probably laughing their arses off right now. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 Heat indices in the mid-90s? Eskimos and Polar Bears are probably laughing their arses off right now.There are some people here that find them physically and emotionally crippling, so there is that... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 There are some people here that find them physically and emotionally crippling, so there is that...90s are great in moderation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 90s are great in moderation.Just like alcohol and pancreatic cancer. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 Probably more than we'd all like him to, still. But you won't be seeing hourly temp/anomaly updates during the cool periods.Nor will you see that with the upcoming warm spell. July is over dummy. And there is probably nothing to interesting coming up. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 12Z ECMWF is perfect... no extreme heat. Just pleasant with good mixing and changing of air masses. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 No heatwaves on the latest Euro. Appears last night's run was not a trend setter. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 12Z ECMWF is perfect... no extreme heat. Just pleasant with good mixing and changing of air masses.Tons of marine layer days. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 Extremes in weather are always better to track. My opinion is 100% fact and any deviations from it are incontrovertibly moronic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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