August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Fourth consecutive day of cooling at PDX. A descent into marine inversion hell.

 

Also the fourth consecutive month of cooling PDO. Hmm...

[Front Ranger]

The thing that really pisses me off is the observed temps should have been lower much of the summer.  I'm fine with what the summer featured for 500mb anomalies, but the relative warmth at the surface has been frustrating.  Now of course we are entering a true warm regime and will likely over achieve all the way.

 

If you put together the middle third of June, the first third of July, and the first third of August, that would have been one impressively cool month!

[TT-SEA]

No way.  That would mean we would have to wait many months for winter or any chance of cold weather.

 

 

Days start getting longer in 4 months!  

[Front Ranger]

We'll see.  I think the upcoming pattern will raise the PDO.  The surface pressure anoms over the NE Pacific will be more like last year again.

 

Yeah, may not happen by this month, but probably by September.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, may not happen by this month, but probably by September.

Oh, kiddo...

[Front Ranger]

Anyone remember end of August 2008? That was CHILLY and we had cold core t'storms with funnels. Don't even think 08/31 hit 60...

 

That whole summer was pretty warm so anything can go this point forward.

 

Not exactly. Especially further north.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Oh, kiddo...

 

It's around neutral right now.

[Deweydog]

It's around neutral right now.

It's trying...

[snow_wizard]

Those many months are many more chances I get to dust off my cameras and get some storms

 

The lack of a 4 corners high was your problem this summer.

[snow_wizard]

It's around neutral right now.

 

The pattern change will make it rise again.  I'm betting we go a solid month before we see the NE Pacific surface pressure anoms go favorable for dropping the PDO again.  One of many reasons I'm very disappointed right now.

[Timmy Supercell]

Not exactly. Especially further north.

 

JJA08TDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

I may have had a touch of nostalgia for 2008, I figured the summer of '08 was above normal.

 

And funny because I was not even in Klamath until Thanksgiving 2010, so I should be more knowledgeable on "west side" weather on previous years. Perhaps a bit of 2009 bled into my thoughts too. That's possible.

[snow_wizard]

Not exactly. Especially further north.

 

JJA08TDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

Maybe that will happen again someday.

[snow_wizard]

I may have had a touch of nostalgia for 2008, I figured the summer of '08 was above normal.

 

I really liked autumn that year.  Many places had a hard freeze before the 15th of October.

[Deweydog]

I really liked autumn that year. Many places had a hard freeze before the 15th of October.

That was a gorgeous fall.

[Front Ranger]

The pattern change will make it rise again.  I'm betting we go a solid month before we see the NE Pacific surface pressure anoms go favorable for dropping the PDO again.  One of many reasons I'm very disappointed right now.

 

I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess Phil disagrees.

[Front Ranger]

The lack of a 4 corners high was your problem this summer.

 

Same reason the monsoon season has been virtually non-existant here.

[snow_wizard]

That was a gorgeous fall.

 

The color was about the best I've seen here.

[snow_wizard]

Same reason the monsoon season has been virtually non-existant here.

 

It makes the relatively warm summer in this area even more of a mystery.  Almost no 4 Corners high should have kept things really cool here.  We really got screwed out of a decently cool summer over the Western lowlands.  WA as a whole had a pretty chilly July.

[TT-SEA]

It makes the relatively warm summer in this area even more of a mystery.  Almost no 4 Corners high should have kept things really cool here.  We really got screwed out of a decently cool summer over the Western lowlands.  WA as a whole had a pretty chilly July.

 

 

Why does it matter if its nice out??   I just don't get it.    

 

You are so wrapped around the axle about stats?   Not your ability to get out and enjoy summer... but just stats??   Its been a lovely summer overall. 

 

Of course I am still convinced you take joy when people are negatively impacted by the weather.   

 

Stop trying to line up all this crap for winter... so stupid.    We might get cold and snow with nothing lined up... or get completely screwed with everything lined up perfectly.   

[Deweydog]

Why does it matter if its nice out??

 

I just don't get it.

 

You are so wrapped around the axle about stats? Not your ability to get out an enjoy summer... but just stats?? Its been a lovely summer overall.

 

Stop trying to line up all this crap for winter... so stupid. We might get cold and snow with nothing lined up... or get completely screwed with everything lined up perfectly.

Your inability to get over it is even more mystifying. So stupid.

[snow_wizard]

Tonight's GFS is quite a bit better than yesterday's 0z.  Not hard to do.

[TT-SEA]

Your inability to get over it is even more mystifying. So stupid.

 

 

No doubt.   

[Deweydog]

That's about as strong a thermal trough you'll see this time of year for Friday. Exceptional stuff.

[TT-SEA]

That's about as strong a thermal trough you'll see this time of year for Friday. Exceptional stuff.

 

 

I told my boys that its going to flip instantly from chilly to hot down there on the OR coast..   They don't believe me.   Can't wait to hear from them on Friday evening.   

[Front Ranger]

That's about as strong a thermal trough you'll see this time of year for Friday. Exceptional stuff.

 

Troughzilla!

[Deweydog]

I told my boys that its going to flip instantly from chilly to hot down there on the OR coast.. They don't believe me. Can't wait to hear from them on Friday evening.

Yeah, the numbers on the coast are gonna be fun. Mid 90's for Astoria are a real possibility.

[Timmy Supercell]

It makes the relatively warm summer in this area even more of a mystery.  Almost no 4 Corners high should have kept things really cool here.  We really got screwed out of a decently cool summer over the Western lowlands.  WA as a whole had a pretty chilly July.

 

At least in this area, the most impressive months compared to average were April and June. June achieved above normal status but did also experience a major cooldown mid month. Won't forget that for a while. July is relatively normal. After crunching overall numbers since June 1st I'm extremely close to normal values on Meteorological Summer for K-Falls. April without a doubt was the most outstanding month out of them all and that was in the spring time.

[Front Ranger]

I told my boys that its going to flip instantly from chilly to hot down there on the OR coast..   They don't believe me.   Can't wait to hear from them on Friday evening.   

 

You'd think after growing up with your exceptional forecasting skills, they'd know better by now.

[TT-SEA]

You'd think after growing up with your exceptional forecasting skills, they'd know better by now.

 

 

They always check with me when they have plans.  

 

They just think its always chilly on the coast... they have never been there when its hot.      

[Timmy Supercell]

They always check with me when they have plans.  

 

They just think its always chilly on the coast... they have never been there when its hot.      

 

Show them Brookings when they get hot! Personally I've never been there but plan to one day. 

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, the numbers on the coast are gonna be fun. Mid 90's for Astoria are a real possibility.

 

Record high for August is 96, from 8/9/81. So yeah, that would be impressive.

 

That and 9/2/72 (95) are the only times after July they've been above 92.

 

EDIT: Though WRCC's records don't completely jive for Astoria, so that could be wrong.

[Deweydog]

Record high for August is 96, from 8/9/81. So yeah, that would be impressive.

 

That and 9/2/72 (95) are the only times after July they've been above 92.

 

EDIT: Though WRCC's records don't completely jive for Astoria, so that could be wrong.

Yeah, they hit 95 on 8-11-92.

[snow_wizard]

I'm failrly intrigued by the prospects for a major cooling on Monday.  The WRF went hog wild with the 12z and this run is even more favorable with height falls and strong onshore flow.  Looks like it could be a genuine deep marine layer.

[BLI snowman]

The color was about the best I've seen here.

It's a fact that our good winters always have colorful falls before them. Proven science.

[TT-SEA]

I'm failrly intrigued by the prospects for a major cooling on Monday. The WRF went hog wild with the 12z and this run is even more favorable with height falls and strong onshore flow. Looks like it could be a genuine deep marine layer.

Don't do this to yourself. 00Z Canadian is back to not showing any cool down at all.

 

You made a similar post about the WRF showing a huge crash over this past weekend as well.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, they hit 95 on 8-11-92.

 

That day is missing from Utah Climate Center's data, too. Weird.

[Front Ranger]

It's a fact that our good winters always have colorful falls before them. Proven science.

 

I dunno...all the photos I've seen from fall 1949 were in black and white.

[snow_wizard]

It's a fact that our good winters always have colorful falls before them. Proven science.

 

There could be some correlation.  Sunny days with frost in late Sept and Oct is often a good sign.  Just by looking at the records it's pretty apparent 1949 had to be an amazingly colorful autumn.

[snow_wizard]

I dunno...all the photos I've seen from fall 1949 were in black and white.

 

How weird you mentioned 1949 at the same time I did.

[snow_wizard]

Don't do this to yourself. 00Z Canadian is back to not showing any cool down at all.

 

You made a similar post about the WRF showing a huge crash over this past weekend as well.

 

We'll see.  I was pretty amazed when I looked at the 12z WRF a few minutes ago.  The numbers are certainly better tonight.  But yeah....I get your drift.