August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

I am really not feeling any prolonged stretches of warmth are coming in September. Sure, some warm sunny days are going to happen, but I doubt any serious warmth locks in. I am treating these next few days as a farewell to summer. Going to make sure to make it down to the lake the next few evenings.

I'd be surprised if we see anything 90+ down this way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There has been a persistent Western ridge for 3 years now...Think we would have figured that out by now...

[Jesse]

What difference does it make?

 

Flawed science of all flavors flows through this place like water. Whether it's wrong or upsetting, some things can be gleaned by paying attention to the natural rhythms of our patterns. Doesn't always work out, but whateva. You don't have to agree.

Fair point. But hard not to point out sometimes.

 

I don't let it get under my skin nearly as much as I used to.

[TT-SEA]

I'd be surprised if we see anything 90+ down this way.

 

 

I agree with this.    Not a strong feeling for heat after this month.  

 

I think an extended period of sun and highs in the 70s and 80s is very likely though the middle 2 weeks of the month. 

 

Time will tell... as always.

[Deweydog]

There has been a persistent Western ridge for 3 years now...Think we would have figured that out by now...

Everything changed two months ago. See today's weather for proof.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is more troughy for next week compared to its 00Z run.   

[Jesse]

Everything changed two months ago. See today's weather for proof.

 

I think it's fair to say the change has been more gradual, and with more fits and false starts, than most were predicting. But then again it is also fair to say there has been a gradual change.

 

I do think it is reasonable to assume we are going into a cool (on the whole) period that may last a few years, though. Nina climo alone, once it really gets going, would dictate this.

 

Very unlikely any coolness the next few years matches the warmth of the last few, though.

[Deweydog]

Fair point. But hard not to point out sometimes.

 

I don't let it get under my skin nearly as much as I used to.

It only goes so far. September could be wall to wall troughing and such. There's nothing specific precluding it, just like nothing specific was precluding a solidly warm August despite all the scientific cold mumbo jumbo one could stomach.

 

If that does happen, beware October...

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian is off doing its own thing next week. Much warmer.

[Deweydog]

I think it's fair to say the change has been more gradual, and with more fits and false starts, than most were predicting. But then again it is also fair to say there has been a gradual change.

 

I do think it is reasonable to assume we are going into a cool (on the whole) period that may last a few years, though. Nina climo alone, once it really gets going, would dictate this.

 

Very unlikely any coolness the next few years matches the warmth of the last few, though.

Negative ENSO certainly means a cooler regime overall.

[TT-SEA]

We might be just 18 months away from entering another positive ENSO period.

 

Unless of course we are buried in ice by then. I am guessing Phil will say this was the last Nino this century.

[Jesse]

Basically every month from Setpember 2007-June 2008 was well below average. How the hell did that happen?

 

I would have assumed that miserably cool September would have just been begging for a warm October to follow it.

[TT-SEA]

Just look at that crash!  Even my wife was impressed when I just showed it to her.  It just seems crazy that a member who shall remain nameless can't comprehend how I'm impressed by this.  That is not a run of the mill transition for this area. 

 

 

 

Post script on the crash... 73 and 72 at SEA with Sunday at -1 and Monday at -2.     Fair amount of sunshine both days.

 

I would say it was a very typical transition from the heat of last week.      

 

SEA had +8, +16, and +11 at the end of last week and the offset was two days that were slightly below normal.       

 

Next week looks like a more thorough and extended 'crash'.  

[GobBluth]

12Z Canadian is off doing its own thing next week. Much warmer.

Also looks the wettest for next Monday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS says default ridging forever.

[TT-SEA]

Also looks the wettest for next Monday.

Did not look at precip... that would be awesome. Canadian usually over-does precip though.

[Phil]

I am really not feeling any prolonged stretches of warmth are coming in September. Sure, some warm sunny days are going to happen, but I doubt any serious warmth locks in. I am treating these next few days as a farewell to summer. Going to make sure to make it down to the lake the next few evenings.

Yeah, pretty much this.

[Phil]

We might be just 18 months away from entering another positive ENSO period.

 

Unless of course we are buried in ice by then. I am guessing Phil will say this was the last Nino this century.

Next Niño should occur in 2019-20 (right at the end of the next solar minimum).

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, pretty much this.

 

 

You have been rushing the end of our summer since March.  

 

September will likely surprise you again.  

[TT-SEA]

Next Niño should occur in 2019-20 (right at the end of the next solar minimum).

 

I say weak Nino at least in 2018-19.   

[Phil]

You have been rushing the end of summer since March.

 

September will likely surprise you again.

Sort of like how the entire summer pattern "surprised" you?

 

I like my chances on this one. Less convoluted in the tropics relative to August. Similar to July, actually.

[Phil]

I say weak Nino at least in 2018-19.

I believe you were calling for neutral ENSO this winter.

 

The Niño response usually waits until the very end of solar minimum. Complicated.

[TT-SEA]

Sort of like how the entire summer pattern "surprised" you?

 

I like my chances on this one. Less convoluted in the tropics relative to August. Similar to July, actually.

 

Well... the quick regime change surprised me back in June.   

 

Since then it has not really surprised me.... I knew at that point in June the summer would be backloaded.    The extent of the August heat was sort of surprising.   

[TT-SEA]

I believe you were calling for neutral ENSO this winter.

 

No... hoping for cold neutral or a weak Nina.   Said that many times.   

 

Might still work.  

[Phil]

Well... the quick regime change surprised me back in June.

 

Since then it has not really surprised me.... I knew at the point the summer would be backloaded. The extent of the August heat was sort of surprising.

Yeah, I think everyone here was leaning cool for August. I certainly was, as were you & Dewey.

 

Goes to show how what can seem most certain can be what bites the forecaster in the butt.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, I think everyone here was leaning cool for August. Goes to show how what can seem most certain can be what bites the forecaster in the butt.

 

Indeed.

[Deweydog]

This summer, and any summer in the future, will NEVER end.

[Phil]

No... hoping for cold neutral or a weak Nina. Said that many times.

 

Might still work.

I bookmark lots of stuff.

 

I am thinking neutral next winter. The models did horribly last spring with the ENSO forecast for this winter. Many of them were showing neutral or even a Nina for this winter up until early April.

 

None of it seems to matter in the outlook for next winter. Every fading Nino in a low solar period that I looked at had a cold, snowy period in January (but not much else the rest of the winter). That included years that went to warm neutral, cold neutral, and full blown Nina. It all seemed to come down to a good to even great period the following January.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, I think everyone here was leaning cool for August. I certainly was, as were you & Dewey.

 

Goes to show how what can seem most certain can be what bites the forecaster in the butt.

For the record, I was thinking a fairly normal August.

[TT-SEA]

I bookmark lots of stuff.

 

 

 

I revised that months ago to "hoping" once you started pointing out all the signs of a huge Nina coming.

 

That was back in February and I still think January is going to be good this year.  

[Phil]

I revised that months ago to "hoping" once you started pointing out all the signs of a huge Nina coming.

 

That was back in February and I still think January is going to be good this year.

Nothing wrong with that. My -1.1 to -1.3 monthly ONI forecast might be too aggressive.

 

Point is, it's tough to forecast ENSO out 8+ months, let alone 2+ years. There are tendencies consistent w/ external forcing, however.

[Jesse]

This summer, and any summer in the future, will NEVER end.

Nice to finally hear your true thoughts!

[TT-SEA]

Nothing wrong with that. My -1.1 to -1.3 monthly ONI forecast might be too aggressive.

 

Point is, it's tough to forecast ENSO out 8+ months, let alone 2+ years.

 

 

Yeah... have to get through the spring transition period each year.

[Jesse]

The continued milding of the 27th-31st will likely clench us a top warm August.

 

Three in the last three years. Beyond absurd. But a week of troughing will leave us due for even more ridging!

[TT-SEA]

The continued milding of the 27th-31st will likely clench us a top warm August.

 

Three in the last three years. Beyond absurd. But a week of troughing will leave us due for even more ridging!

 

 

Don't be Eeyore.    Nobody here controls the weather.  

 

http://img.lum.dolimg.com/v1/images/open-uri20150422-20810-11ej849_779819a7.jpeg?region=0,0,600,600

[TT-SEA]

WRF shows some good rain across the region on Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday of next week.  

[Jesse]

Record weather events are noteworthy and worth talking about. That is a ridiculous stat. We have to listen to **** head moan about it for days if we get more than three consecutive days of rainfall, which is pretty normal for our climate.

 

I still think a permanent ban would be the best route to go with him. I will continue pushing hard for it.

[TT-SEA]

Record weather events are noteworthy and worth talking about. That is a ridiculous stat. We have to listen to **** head moan about it for days if we get more than three consecutive days of rainfall, which is pretty normal for our climate.

 

I still think a permanent ban would be the best route to go with him. I will continue pushing hard for it.

 

 

My complaining has been at a minimum for years... despite some ridiculously wet periods in there.     

 

You were not talking about just stats... you were mocking me and possibly nature.    That is the point I was making and its valid.     I guess I have to start reporting all these types of posts now if you are going that route.

 

Beyond absurd. But a week of troughing will leave us due for even more ridging!

 

[Geos]

Wow, last nights 00z EURO was COLD for Summer at day 10. If this was late Autumn or Winter we would be talking about an Arctic blast. I hope we get a really colder than usual September and October. The colder the better.

 

 

Holy cow, that's impressive! - especially considering the widespread lower values.

Around -6° from normal. That would be highs in the mid 60s here or so.

 

Low 52° this morning. Really nice day going on.

[Deweydog]

Record weather events are noteworthy and worth talking about. That is a ridiculous stat. We have to listen to **** head moan about it for days if we get more than three consecutive days of rainfall, which is pretty normal for our climate.

 

I still think a permanent ban would be the best route to go with him. I will continue pushing hard for it.

I think you need to find a cooling station.