August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

There's a tendency to forget that September can turn out to be more of a fall-like month than a summer month, just as June some years is more of a spring-like month than summer. 

 

Most recently, in 2005 SEA didn't touch 80 once in September, and only topped 70 three times after 9/8. OLM had a low of 32 on 9/24.

 

In Sep 1996, OLM didn't hit 80 once and had rain on 14 of the first 21 days of the month.

 

In Sep 1978, PDX only reached 80 once, and had rain on 13 of the first 17 days. OLM had 7.59" of rain that month.

[Front Ranger]

That's because SEA is affected by UHI.

 

Tim has repeatedly acted like it's irrelevant.

[snow_wizard]

Another thing...I distinctly remember SEA was having temperature sensor problems during the Dec 2013 cold wave providing absurdly warm numbers during a very impressive event.  Totally sucks!

[wx_statman]

Meanwhile the artificially warm location (compared with the past) provides bogus data to skew the numbers up for "proof" of global warming.  I wonder how many other stations are in the same boat?  The whole thing is pretty frustrating for people who are into tracking daily, monthly, and yearly temperature data / records.

 

They need a station for climatology study as well as the needs of airports.

 

I agree. I'm just as frustrated as you by the lack of consistent, long term weather data out there.

 

Good luck convincing the federal gov't to provide funding for what you're suggesting. Its hard enough to get funding even for pressing issues. And a 1F or 2F temperature difference would not be considered a pressing issue in the eyes of the general public. 

[snow_wizard]

There's a tendency to forget that September can turn out to be more of a fall-like month than a summer month, just as June some years is more of a spring-like month than summer. 

 

Most recently, in 2005 SEA didn't touch 80 once in September, and only topped 70 three times after 9/8. OLM had a low of 32 on 9/24.

 

In Sep 1996, OLM didn't hit 80 once and had rain on 14 of the first 21 days of the month.

 

In Sep 1978, PDX only reached 80 once, and had rain on 13 of the first 17 days. OLM had 7.59" of rain that month.

 

Then of course the incomparable September 1972.

 

Obviously Sept is capable of far colder nights than June also.

[Front Ranger]

Then of course the incomparable September 1972.

 

That was an extremely dynamic month, but it definitely had appearances by summer. Major heatwave to start the month (PDX hit 97 on 9/2), then a cool/wet period, then another warm/summery period mid month, then a very fall-like last couple weeks of the month, including seven highs in the 50s at OLM, widespread lows in the 30s, with 20s in outlying areas. OLM hit 25 on 9/27, the record low for the month.

[TT-SEA]

Tim has repeatedly acted like it's irrelevant.

 

 

No.

 

Just that its been pretty irrelevant this summer when comparing to stations like WFO SEA, BLI, Victoria, Hoquaim, etc.     

 

Some stations removed from UHI have been even warmer than SEA.    

[Front Ranger]

Another thing...I distinctly remember SEA was having temperature sensor problems during the Dec 2013 cold wave providing absurdly warm numbers during a very impressive event.  Totally sucks!

 

Yeah, something definitely seemed screwy with that event. SEA only recorded one high below 34, while OLM saw 5 straight days below freezing - with no snow cover. Even Seattle WFO had 3 highs below 34.

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day here... filtered sun and full sun at times and in the low 70s.

[Front Ranger]

No.

 

Just that its been pretty irrelevant this summer when comparing to stations like WFO SEA, BLI, Victoria, Hoquaim, etc.     

 

Some stations removed from UHI have been even warmer than SEA.    

 

SEA will end up with one of the warmest summer anomalies in the region, as usual.

[wx_statman]

Then of course the incomparable September 1972.

 

Obviously Sept is capable of far colder nights than June also.

 

The trough on 9/23 was incredible. 

 

Darrington (at 550 feet) had a high of 43 with 1.77" of rain. That tells me the snow level was down to maybe 1,500 feet with mixing even lower. At Longmire (2,800 feet) the high was 38 with 1.5" of snow - the only maximum in the 30's and the only measurable snowfall in September for that location (POR back to 1909). 

[wx_statman]

That was an extremely dynamic month, but it definitely had appearances by summer. Major heatwave to start the month (PDX hit 97 on 9/2), then a cool/wet period, then another warm/summery period mid month, then a very fall-like last couple weeks of the month, including seven highs in the 50s at OLM, widespread lows in the 30s, with 20s in outlying areas. OLM hit 25 on 9/27, the record low for the month.

 

A ton of monthly record lows up in BC as well on the 26th-27th, including 28F at Prince Rupert and 30F in Hope. 

[TT-SEA]

SEA will end up with one of the warmest summer anomalies in the region, as usual.

 

 

OK.

 

Glad I live, work, and play in the Seattle area.   

 

Nobody is taking the UHI away any time soon.  

[TT-SEA]

Radar looks surprisingly active.

 

[Phil]

Cooler than what? I'm just curious here.

Cooler relative to IAD & BWI.

[ShawniganLake]

Radar looks surprisingly active.

 

Rain falling lightly here. Enough to dampen the fundraiser picnick we are at. Not enough to wet the ground though.

[Deweydog]

Nah, just pointing out a theme I've noticed here the last several years.

Warm falls?

[wx_statman]

Cooler relative to IAD & BWI.

 

Ah, ok. Btw, I'm not entirely sure if there is a problem with the BLI sensor. Its put up some eye popping warm numbers in recent years, but we've had very impressive warm airmasses. 

 

For example it might be tempting to view the 83 on 4/18 as suspicious, considering the previous monthly record was 78 and even PDX only reached 85. But you look around BLI and you see that Blaine also reached 83, breaking their monthly record of 80. Anacortes hit 88, breaking their previously monthly record of 83. So now BLI's reading looks exactly in line with the region. Then on 5/2 BLI hit 86 - another incredible reading that might look suspect at first glance. But then you look at Anacortes and see that they reached 90 on the same day, by far the earliest in the season that benchmark has been reached at that location. You look at Blaine and see 86 degrees as well. So again, the BLI reading is right in line with the region.

 

I'm not saying the BLI sensor doesn't have issues - it very well may. But its readings aren't always out of line with the region, and in particular this year have been representative of historically warm airmasses more than any equipment issues. 

[MossMan]

Gorgeous day here... filtered sun and full sun at times and in the low 70s.

Liquid starting to dribble down here, not enough to wet the ground yet.

[TT-SEA]

Ah, ok. Btw, I'm not entirely sure if there is a problem with the BLI sensor. Its put up some eye popping warm numbers in recent years, but we've had very impressive warm airmasses. 

 

For example it might be tempting to view the 83 on 4/18 as suspicious, considering the previous monthly record was 78 and even PDX only reached 85. But you look around BLI and you see that Blaine also reached 83, breaking their monthly record of 80. Anacortes hit 88, breaking their previously monthly record of 83. So now BLI's reading looks exactly in line with the region. Then on 5/2 BLI hit 86 - another incredible reading that might look suspect at first glance. But then you look at Anacortes and see that they reached 90 on the same day, by far the earliest in the season that benchmark has been reached at that location. You look at Blaine and see 86 degrees as well. So again, the BLI reading is right in line with the region.

 

I'm not saying the BLI sensor doesn't have issues - it very well may. But its readings aren't always out of line with the region, and in particular this year have been representative of historically warm airmasses more than any equipment issues. 

 

 

Don't leave us again.   You add so much unbiased and detailed information.   Invaluable to our little group of weather fanatics.

[Phil]

These ultrasonic multipurpose sensors can be fickle in that the bias(es) will only register at certain temperatures, relative humidities, dewpoint depressions, etc.

 

The DCA case was similar to what might be happening @ BLI and other stations out there, as there were other stations surrounding DCA that would read similarly in some circumstances, so it essentially took a social media pressure campaign to get the sensor switched out and calibrated, and it turned out that the old sensor was running 2-3 degrees too warm on average.

 

When was the last time the BLI & Astoria sensors were replaced? I'm fairly certain Astoria's sensor has gone haywire..not sure about BLI's, though.

[ShawniganLake]

Honest question. Do sensors only trend warm when they are failing. I have never once heard someone question a sensor for cold readings.

[TT-SEA]

Liquid starting to dribble down here, not enough to wet the ground yet.

 

 

Today would be a perfect day to be over in Coulee City... 83 and sunny with a light breeze.

[Phil]

Ideally, these sensors should be replaced at least every two years. Creep sets in fairly quickly.

[Phil]

September might be one of the coldest if not coldest September on record here in the PNW. Unbelievable pattern change we are about to witness. Autumn is coming fast!

Very unlikely. Maybe we squeak in a top-40 coolest September on record, though!

[Phil]

Honest question. Do sensors only trend warm when they are failing. I have never once heard someone question a sensor for cold readings.

Yeah, they typically trend warm as their radiation shield(s) degrade. It's somewhat more unusual for a sensor to run cool, though I'm sure it happens from time to time.

 

I know my sensors always creep warm with time. It's just in their nature given how they measure temperatures.

[TT-SEA]

September might be one of the coldest if not coldest September on record here in the PNW. Unbelievable pattern change we are about to witness. Autumn is coming fast!

 

 

Honest question... how old are you Blizzard?

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, they typically trend warm as their radiation shield(s) degrade. It's somewhat more unusual for a sensor to run cool, though I'm sure it happens from time to time.

 

I know my sensors always creep warm with time. It's just in their nature given how they measure temperatures.

 

It figures.  Somebody is probably twisting NOAA's arm to keep the sensors longer to perpetuate the global warming agenda.  Pretty much everything favors warm biases such as this issue and UHI.

 

BTW I use an old fashioned mercury recording thermometer for my daily temperature observations.  Sadly mercury has been vilified as being evil incarnate in recent years so they are hard to get now.  The funny thing is elemental mercury isn't nearly as dangerous as the forms the government is freaking out about.

[wx_statman]

Don't leave us again.   You add so much unbiased and detailed information.   Invaluable to our little group of weather fanatics.

 

Well, thank you!

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a potential victory for the good guys today (people who like cold anomalies).  The WRF obviously is looking too high today.  The heavier than expected cloud cover is certainly helping.

[wx_statman]

These ultrasonic multipurpose sensors can be fickle in that the bias(es) will only register at certain temperatures, relative humidities, dewpoint depressions, etc.

 

The DCA case was similar to what might be happening @ BLI and other stations out there, as there were other stations surrounding DCA that would read similarly in some circumstances, so it essentially took a social media pressure campaign to get the sensor switched out and calibrated, and it turned out that the old sensor was running 2-3 degrees too warm on average.

 

When was the last time the BLI & Astoria sensors were replaced? I'm fairly certain Astoria's sensor has gone haywire..not sure about BLI's, though.

 

Just because an unusual weather pattern has produced unusual readings?

 

I think you're jumping too quickly to conclusions. Just because some sensors have developed issues doesn't mean all sensors have developed issues. 

[snow_wizard]

Very unlikely. Maybe we squeak in a top-40 coolest September on record, though!

 

Maybe top 20 if we can hold onto the pattern being depicted by the models for the entire month.

[wx_statman]

Honest question. Do sensors only trend warm when they are failing. I have never once heard someone question a sensor for cold readings.

 

That's a good question. I don't think I've ever heard people question readings that might appear slightly cool. The only example that I know of is the -55F in Allagash, ME in January 1999. Initially made headlines as a new state record low, only to have the NWS revise the reading to something like -41F a few days later. Calibration issues. But again, that was only reviewed because it was a possible state record. 

[wx_statman]

Yeah, they typically trend warm as their radiation shield(s) degrade. It's somewhat more unusual for a sensor to run cool, though I'm sure it happens from time to time.

 

I know my sensors always creep warm with time. It's just in their nature given how they measure temperatures.

 

While those are good points, a lot of the questioning of sensors appears agenda-driven. It smells more like attempts to discredit modern heat records. And I'm not talking specifically about you but rather in a general sense. 

 

It was nauseating reading some of the talk out there when Death Valley threatened 130F on June 30, 2013. There were all kinds of questions being thrown around on Anthony Watt's blog about how accurate the Death Valley sensor is, in how good of shape is the Stevenson Screen, when was the last time it was whitewashed, etc etc. All pretty transparent attemps to cast doubt on any possible 130F reading. But not one question was raised about the laughably dubious 134F record from 1913, and the undoubtedly shoddy recording practices in effect that day. 

[Phil]

Just because an unusual weather pattern has produced unusual readings?

 

I think you're jumping too quickly to conclusions. Just because some sensors have developed issues doesn't mean all sensors have developed issues.

Sometimes you have to call a spade a spade. I've seen and investigated enough sensor problems in my young life to recognize one when I see it.

 

For example, Astoria didn't record one single cooler than average day in July, despite rather consistent troughs and cooler than average anomalies both @ 950-975mb and cool surface anomalies registered @ surrounding locations. This looks even worse than the DCA debacle.

 

July:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/75CDC450-4B15-4D53-A11A-2EE3C29D79A0_zpslps32nox.png

[Phil]

While those are good points, a lot of the questioning of sensors appears agenda-driven. It smells more like attempts to discredit modern heat records. And I'm not talking specifically about you but rather in a general sense.

 

It was nauseating reading some of the talk out there when Death Valley threatened 130F on June 30, 2013. There were all kinds of questions being thrown around on Anthony Watt's blog about how accurate the Death Valley sensor is, in how good of shape is the Stevenson Screen, when was the last time it was whitewashed, etc etc. All pretty transparent attemps to cast doubt on any possible 130F reading. But not one question was raised about the laughably dubious 134F record from 1913, and the undoubtedly shoddy recording practices in effect that day.

Yeah, the political and climate agendas are nauseating. Sort of irrelevant to this discussion, however

[snow_wizard]

That's a good question. I don't think I've ever heard people question readings that might appear slightly cool. The only example that I know of is the -55F in Allagash, ME in January 1999. Initially made headlines as a new state record low, only to have the NWS revise the reading to something like -41F a few days later. Calibration issues. But again, that was only reviewed because it was a possible state record. 

 

Off by 14 degrees.  Sure....

[TT-SEA]

Thinly filtered sun here and yet there are rain drops.    Enough sun that it feels warm... probably at 70-80% strength.     Sprinkles... but my silly wife would call it drizzle.  

[snow_wizard]

Sometimes you have to call a spade a spade. I've seen and investigated enough sensor problems in my young life to recognize one when I see it.

 

For example, Astoria didn't record one single cooler than average day in July, despite rather consistent troughs and cooler than average anomalies both @ 950-975mb and cool surface anomalies registered @ surrounding locations. This looks even worse than the DCA debacle.

 

July:

 

 

One thing that does make me wonder about the Astoria data is the fact it was freakishly warmer than Hoquiam the other day.  Normally the cooling from a marine push effects places further south first.  That and the fact Hoquiam is a bit inland from the actual ocean.  I will say the pattern on that day was a bit unorthodox though.

[snow_wizard]

Old enough TT-SEA. The word "might" is not the same as likely, probably or going.

 

You won't at least give us a hint?  Say a range of 5 years?