August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FWIW, the GFS brings a big one into Florida in the long range.  More inline with what you are referring to. 

 

Great my kids are going to be in Florida Labor Day weekend. I better keep an eye on this...

[stuffradio]

Nice reload on the 12z Euro

 

http://i.imgur.com/j21lFBK.jpg

I see the snow already!

[ShawniganLake]

Getting breezy out there now. Gusting close to 30mph now.

[Phil]

I have a funny little feeling about the wave progged to move off Africa in the next few days. I'm not sure why, but my gut is telling me this one is going to do something.

[James Jones]

Midnight high at SEA today. Don't see that often this time of year.

[wx_statman]

Nice NW'erly surge at PDX this afternoon. Wind shift at 4 o'clock and an 8 degree temperature drop. 

[Front Ranger]

SEA is now at +3.2 for the month this morning.   It will be interesting to see how much it falls from there through Wednesday.    Second warmest August ever right now... behind 1967.  But will likely fall a few spots before the month is over.

 

As usual, big difference at OLM. +1.8 and nowhere near a record.

[Jesse]

Nice NW'erly surge at PDX this afternoon. Wind shift at 4 o'clock and an 8 degree temperature drop.

This afternoon was great.

[wx_statman]

This afternoon was great.

 

PDX running -21 compared to yesterday @ 7pm. Feels refreshing! 

[Tyler Mode]

The temperature is running 20 degrees cooler tonight than last night at this time...86 to 66 now.

[snow_wizard]

PDX running -21 compared to yesterday @ 7pm. Feels refreshing! 

 

No doubt we have been getting some big temperature swings lately.  I like that MUCH more than sustained warmth.

[snow_wizard]

I haven't made my official forecast yet. I was thinking more of the lines of something in between 68/69 and 08/09 because that works out perfectly for PDX, a range of 24.2" to 34.0". Seattle got 67.5" in 68/69 and that's too much to predict something like that. As of right now if I had to make a forecast just to be on the conservative side, anywhere from 18" to 30" from PDX up to YVR. 

 

I love your line of reasoning on this.  The interesting thing is you may end up being right.  High chance of a good winter this time around.

[snow_wizard]

As usual, big difference at OLM. +1.8 and nowhere near a record.

 

There are so many microclimates around here that a different set of circumstances is required for different stations to achieve record or near record warm months this time of year. 

[Jesse]

No doubt we have been getting some big temperature swings lately.  I like that MUCH more than sustained warmth.

 

No doubt. One of the most awful aspects of the 2014-2015 period was the sustained, high-end warmth. No big spikes or crashes either way.

[Jesse]

The WRF is quite bullish on cooling tomorrow for the Puget Sound area.  Probably low 70s with a few upper 60s possible.

 

Good call!

[TT-SEA]

As usual, big difference at OLM. +1.8 and nowhere near a record.

 

 

Explain Quillayute and Bellingham.

[ShawniganLake]

Explain Quillayute and Bellingham.

He can't but who cares. Olympia is ******* awesome.

[stuffradio]

I hope your gut tells you that the PNW will get lots of snow/ice and sub freezing highs this Winter. 

I don't know of anyone but you who wants the ice. I'll take the snow though.

[GHweatherChris]

Nice reload on the 12z Euro

 

http://i.imgur.com/j21lFBK.jpg

We should keep the word reload out until it really matters.

[snow_wizard]

Thicknesses go reasonably low for a good part of next week on the 0z GFS.  Looking more sure for a pretty long run of cool weather.

[MossMan]

I found snow! The HWY 20 drive is always so amazing! It's cold over here!

[MossMan]

We should keep the word reload out until it really matters.

I agree. That term should only be used from November thru March.

[snow_wizard]

Quite impressive cold front being depicted for Labor Day with thicknesses ultimately falling below 546.  No way Mother Nature will magically pull positive departures out of thin air if that verifies.  If the timing is correct highs in the 50s would be pretty possible on Labor Day.

[Deweydog]

I found snow! The HWY 20 drive is always so amazing! It's cold over here!

Slate Peak!

[snow_wizard]

The WRF has trended cooler for Monday.  Cool weather fans may finally be catching some breaks.

[ShawniganLake]

I have a funny little feeling about the wave progged to move off Africa in the next few days. I'm not sure why, but my gut is telling me this one is going to do something.

Still looks like there may be a window of opportunity for the system in the gulf to blow up this week.

[Jesse]

Pretty solid ensemble support for the 00z.

 

Getting excited for the fall-like weather and some rain chances.

[luminen]

Lots of trees are getting colors here already, so with the cooler weather next week it will be really Fall-like. Can't wait.

[TT-SEA]

Playing around on WeatherBell this morning... the CFS is very warm in the west this winter.   In fact the coldest month shown between now and next spring in September.   Hopefully its wrong as usual.     Even I want a cold winter.

[Deweydog]

Playing around on WeatherBell this morning... the CFS is very warm in the west this winter. In fact the coldest month shown between now and next spring in September. Hopefully its wrong as usual. Even I want a cold winter.

What did the CFS show in late August 1968??

[Phil]

What did the CFS show in late August 1968??

Nationwide blowtorch.

[snow_wizard]

Very cool 12z run to say the least.  Thicknesses below 552 over Seattle for exteneded periods of time beginning in a few days.  Looks like quite a soaking coming up early next week also.

 

It's certainly looking like a high chance the SE part of the country will be dealing with at least one tropical storm / hurricane in the coming days.

[TT-SEA]

My thought is that we cycle through a 10-day cool, troughy period like we did in early July and then the rest of the September is dry and a little warmer than normal.

 

Just a feeling that I am getting based on our analog years.    I also think October might end up fairly warm.    

 

I welcome criticism if I am wrong.   

[Phil]

My thought is that we cycle through a 10-day cool, troughy period like we did in early July and then the rest of the September is dry and a little warmer than normal.

 

Just a feeling that I am getting based on our analog years. I also think October might end up fairly warm.

 

I welcome criticism if I am wrong.

July was generally cool/troughy until the 25th, dude. Note PDX/OLM/EUG all saw their coolest anomalies after July 10th, as the deepest troughing occurred during the middle of the month.

 

The second and third weeks of July were cooler and troughier (relative to average) versus the first week of the month.

[TT-SEA]

July was generally cool/troughy until the 25th, dude. Note PDX/OLM/EUG all saw their coolest anomalies after July 10th, as the deepest troughing occurred during the middle of the month.

 

The second and third weeks of July were cooler and troughier (relative to average) versus the first week of the month.

 

Great.

 

Locally we cycled through the coolest, wettest period in the first third of the month and then it was dry and warmer than normal.   

 

My feeling is the same for September.  

[Deweydog]

I too think it will warm up after the cold wave.

[snow_wizard]

I too think it will warm up after the cold wave.

 

But the million dollar question is how much and for how long?

[TT-SEA]

I too think it will warm up after the cold wave.

I am saying something a little different of course.

[TT-SEA]

But the million dollar question is how much and for how long?

If I had to bet money... warmer than normal second half of September, October, and a wet/warm November. And then the fun could start. Still think best stuff is in January this year.

[Deweydog]

But the million dollar question is how much and for how long?

Trillion dollar question is more like it.