August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Looks like next week is going to feature some -2 and -3 days at SEA... interesting how our massive troughs can't even come close to equaling the warm departures that even marginal ridging can put up lately as Jim has mentioned several times this summer.     Have to get lucky with well-timed afternoon rain and maybe we can get a bigger cold departure.

[TT-SEA]

Still a most lovely 76 degrees at nearly 10:30pm here at my little cabin of peace and quiet.

 

 

79 at SEA right now.  

 

You should have been home the last 3 days... you would have loved it.  

[snow_wizard]

Warming is never linear though. The 1930s-40's and today are both part of the general post-1850 warming trend. 

 

It's all probably just a rebound from the Little Ice Age though.  We won't know how much of this warming has been natural and how much not for a while yet.

[Deweydog]

The thing is...it really doesn't show 90 degree heat.

 

EDIT: I guess it does at day 10. HUGE outlier though.

Moot I suppose, but the GFS supports the idea in the stupid range.

 

A warm up following troughing? It's so crazy it just might work!

[snow_wizard]

Moot I suppose, but the GFS supports the idea.

 

A warm up following troughing? It's so crazy it just might work!

 

I guess, but the warming is brief and crashes hard.

[Jesse]

Moot I suppose, but the GFS supports the idea.

 

A warm up following troughing? It's so crazy it just might work!

We are due for an extended period of troughing one of these years.

[Phil]

Looks like next week is going to feature some -2 and -3 days at SEA... interesting how our massive troughs can't even come close to equaling the warm departures that even marginal ridging can put up lately as Jim has mentioned several times this summer. Have to get lucky with well-timed afternoon rain and maybe we can get a bigger cold departure.

Or a slow, lazy ULL.

[Deweydog]

I guess, but the warming is brief and crashes hard.

Very good point.

[TT-SEA]

I guess, but the warming is brief and crashes hard.

 

 

Even more moot.   

[Deweydog]

We are due for an extended period of troughing one of these years.

Not feeling it. I suspect things will stay fairly dynamic.

[Phil]

Not feeling it. I suspect things will stay fairly dynamic.

Stick to lawyering.

[TT-SEA]

Or a slow, lazy ULL.

 

 

Yeah... SEA had 2 days of -4 with the early August slow-moving ULL.

 

 

And has had some +8, +10, +12, +8, +16, +11, +6, +11, +13 days since that time.   

[wx_statman]

It's all probably just a rebound from the Little Ice Age though.  We won't know how much of this warming has been natural and how much not for a while yet.

 

This is probably not a good place for a discussion on climate change. That's just asking for trouble. 

[Deweydog]

Stick to lawyering.

August.

 

Mic drop.

[Phil]

Yeah... SEA had 2 days of -4 with the early August slow-moving ULL.

 

 

And has had some +8, +10, +12, +8, +16, +11, +6, +11, +13 days since that time.

That's called UHI. Artificial. Fake Warmth.

 

OLM, EUG, & PDX all scored substantially lower departures during the early August cool spell/ULL.

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=sew

[MossMan]

79 at SEA right now.

 

You should have been home the last 3 days... you would have loved it.

Yeah timing wasn't the best, though if the weather had been crappy at home it would have been most likely windy over here. Low 90's and just a slight breeze equals late summer perfection for me! And I see Arlington is down to 65 so probably about that at my house currently.

[TT-SEA]

That's called UHI. Artificial. Fake Warmth.

 

OLM, EUG, & PDX all scored substantially lower departures.

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=sew

 

 

Thats quite the UHI.  

 

Jared surmises the UHI effect at SEA is about +1 over the long run.  

 

That does not explain those numbers.  

[Phil]

Thats quite the UHI.

 

Jared surmises the UHI effect at SEA is about +1 over the long run.

 

That does not explain those numbers.

It's probably larger. The disconnect between 850mb temperature anomalies and surface temperature anomalies has been huge throughout most of the urbanized/suburbanized Puget Sound region. Most notably at night.

[Jesse]

Stick to lawyering.

No offense, but wasn't August basically the opposite of what you were predicting?

[TT-SEA]

It's probably larger. The disconnect between 850mb temperature anomalies and surface temperature anomalies has been huge throughout most of the urbanized/suburbanized Puget Sound region.

 

 

Bellingham and Victoria are only marginally effected by UHI... if at all.  

 

You should visit sometime.  

[BLI snowman]

Which is a bit unfortunate, although 1941 deserves the top billing. 

 

What's really impressive about the June 30-July 2, 1942 heatwave is that it was neck and neck with July 1941 in a lot of places west of the Cascades. 

 

It was like getting August 1981 and July 2009 in back to back years. 108 in Salem in 1941, 107 in downtown Portland in 1942. Pretty amazing that it happened. 

 

1942 also had the highest heat index in Portland history

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/1942/7/2/DailyHistory.html

 

I'm guessing these obs were actually from Swan Island though, since PDX was cooler that day.

[wx_statman]

That's called UHI. Artificial. Fake Warmth.

 

OLM, EUG, & PDX all scored substantially lower departures.

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=sew

 

C'mon now. People are aware that UHI exists. 

 

SEA is running +2.8 for the month. Both BLI and UIL are running +2.7 for the month.

 

Would SEA only average +2.3 without the UHI? Or +2.0? Either way, its been a warm August for western WA. 

[snow_wizard]

That's called UHI. Artificial. Fake Warmth.

 

OLM, EUG, & PDX all scored substantially lower departures.

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=sew

 

It's that stupid third runway at SEA.  The records there are kind of meaningless now.  Huge pity actually.

[James Jones]

And that was decades ago.  Kind of like how 1936 was the warmest summer on record for the US and yet we are supposed to be seeing progressively worse heat with global warming.  Some of those old time events still hold their own.

1936 also had the 2nd coldest February on record for the U.S. As we all know, the scorching summers of that era were caused by the dust bowl, which obviously was caused by drought. There's just no way for those kinds of massive Plains/Midwestern heatwaves to form under normal conditions when the area is getting adequate precip. The warmest years on record for the U.S. are, in order, 2012, 2015, 2006, 1998, and 1934.

[Phil]

No offense, but wasn't August basically the opposite of what you were predicting?

Not really, we went over this..everything just shifted a bit farther east vs Niña climo given the WPAC burp. Maybe chillax a bit?

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A1D653DC-BFFD-4713-94CE-A56ADB1E5E03_zpstub2fnqb.png

[snow_wizard]

C'mon now. People are aware that UHI exists. 

 

SEA is running +2.8 for the month. Both BLI and UIL are running +2.7 for the month.

 

Would SEA only average +2.3 without the UHI? Or +2.0? Either way, its been a warm August for western WA. 

 

No doubt about that.

[Jesse]

I definitely can see the OP spiking up as an outlier on the 00z GFS ensembles, around September 10. Must be what all the fuss is about.

[BLI snowman]

00Z GFS MOS has 72 at PDX that day and 74 next Saturday.  

 

00z GFS sampled data shows 58 at PDX, which matches the conditions

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kpdx

[snow_wizard]

1936 also had the 2nd coldest February on record for the U.S. As we all know, the scorching summers of that era were caused by the dust bowl, which obviously was caused by drought. There's just no way for those kinds of massive Plains/Midwestern heatwaves to form under normal conditions when the area is getting adequate precip. The warmest years on record for the U.S. are, in order, 2012, 2015, 2006, 1998, and 1934.

 

There is some UHI involved in the more recent records.  Your points are well taken though.

 

The big wildcard for the big warming the 2nd half of the 20th century is the recent solar grand maximum.  We will know much more in the coming years as the lag effect from that wears off.

[Jesse]

Not really, we went over this..everything just shifted a bit farther east vs Niña climo given the WPAC burp. Maybe chillax a bit?

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A1D653DC-BFFD-4713-94CE-A56ADB1E5E03_zpstub2fnqb.png

Fair enough. If ridging had been centered a couple hundred miles further offshore I can definitely picture that it would have been cooler here.

 

Hope there are no other unforeseen burps for September.

[Phil]

C'mon now. People are aware that UHI exists.

 

SEA is running +2.8 for the month. Both BLI and UIL are running +2.7 for the month.

 

Would SEA only average +2.3 without the UHI? Or +2.0? Either way, its been a warm August for western WA.

You totally missed the point of that exchange. No one was/is arguing against the fact that August was warm.

 

Rather, the hypothesized "deep troughs failing to deliver cold" nonsense that's regurgitated here 24/7 is demonstrably refutable noting temperature deviations from 850mb to 925mb. The disconnect is confined to the surface component of the lower boundary layer.

[TT-SEA]

00z GFS sampled data shows 58 at PDX, which matches the conditions

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kpdx

 

The temperature output on the meteostar is comically wrong.   Much like the surface temps on the GFS model itself.   

 

GFS MOS is not perfect but WAY better than the meteostar.  

 

If you tried to use the meteorstar all winter you would be very disappointed.   It routinely shows ridiculously cold temps.

[snow_wizard]

I definitely can see the OP spiking up as an outlier on the 00z GFS ensembles, around September 10. Must be what all the fuss is about.

 

It is possible the offshore ridge could flop over on us for a few days between next weeks big trough and another big trough directly afterward.  That's what the GFS shows.  A scenario like that would certainly bring some upper 30s / low 40s for lows in the transition though.

[TT-SEA]

You totally missed the point of that exchange. No one was/is arguing against the fact that August was warm.

 

Rather, the hypothesized "deep troughs failing to deliver cold" nonsense that's regurgitated here 24/7 is demonstrably refutable noting temperature deviations from 850mb to 925mb. The disconnect is confined to the surface component of the lower boundary layer.

 

 

This true... but we live down here and not at the 850mb level.

 

You can watch it happen it again next week.  

[wx_statman]

1942 also had the highest heat index in Portland history

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/1942/7/2/DailyHistory.html

 

I'm guessing these obs were actually from Swan Island though, since PDX was cooler that day.

 

Yeah, those are downtown obs. I wonder why Wunderground mixed them up like that. The official all-time record high downtown is 107 on July 2, 1942....its funny how that page still shows the PDX record high for that date, 102 degrees. PDX of course peaked at 105 the day before. 

 

I love that 3pm obs - 107, dp 67, heat index 114. Unreal. 

 

The 1942 heatwave was such a beast. 101 in downtown Astoria and 104 at Astor Experiment Station just east of town, and 95 degrees up at Stevens Pass. That location only managed 91 in 1941 and 92 in July 1939. The latter event brought 117 to Umatilla and 89 to Timberline Lodge, which was the highest in their 1938-51 period of record. And it still couldn't match 1942 at Stevens Pass. 

[Phil]

This true... but we live down there and not at the 850mb level.

 

You can watch it happen it again next week.

Okay, but again, it's a combination of UHI and perhaps a few boundary layer peculiarities that've been present this year.

 

"Fake warmth", if you want to call it that. Out in the mountains and rural areas, the colder anomalies have manifested more consistently.

[BLI snowman]

The temperature output on meteostar is comically wrong.   Much like the surface temps on the GFS model itself.   

 

GFS MOS is not perfect but WAY better than the meteostar.  

 

If you tried to use that all winter you would be very disappointed.   It routinely shows ridiculously cold temps.

 

I'd say its track record in the short range is pretty decent, after 120 hours it becomes fairly useless. Like MOS.

 

The 00z shows a setup that would probably realistically produce highs in the lower-middle 60s on Friday, at face value. Just depends on exact precip timing, which is fruitless to speculate about a week out.

[Deweydog]

You totally missed the point of that exchange. No one was/is arguing against the fact that August was warm.

 

Rather, the hypothesized "deep troughs failing to deliver cold" nonsense that's regurgitated here 24/7 is demonstrably refutable noting temperature deviations from 850mb to 925mb. The disconnect is confined to the surface component of the lower boundary layer.

Tim does make a good point in that ridiculousness, however, as the challenge is always to determine how the mid/upper levels will translate to the boundary layer, where people live, laugh, love and always kiss me goodnight.

 

Urbanized areas were most certainly not the only places that "underperformed" cold-wise through mid summer.

[snow_wizard]

Fair enough. If ridging had been centered a couple hundred miles further offshore I can definitely picture that it would have been cooler here.

 

Hope there are no other unforeseen burps for September.

 

D**n burps!

 

You totally missed the point of that exchange. No one was/is arguing against the fact that August was warm.

 

Rather, the hypothesized "deep troughs failing to deliver cold" nonsense that's regurgitated here 24/7 is demonstrably refutable noting temperature deviations from 850mb to 925mb. The disconnect is confined to the surface component of the lower boundary layer.

 

That has been a huge problem this summer.  It has been well illustrated in Victoria especially as they have put up a very warm summer (for them) in spite of 500mb anomalies that would suggest it should have been normal or below.

[wx_statman]

You totally missed the point of that exchange. No one was/is arguing against the fact that August was warm.

 

Rather, the hypothesized "deep troughs failing to deliver cold" nonsense that's regurgitated here 24/7 is demonstrably refutable noting temperature deviations from 850mb to 925mb. The disconnect is confined to the surface component of the lower boundary layer.

 

In other words, deep troughs are failing to deliver cold?