August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

OK you got me, I was using hyperbole. Its was still a warm summer Mediterranean climate. 

 

But the capabilities of our climate were obviously different in that era. 

 

Yep, winters definitely had colder/snowier extremes, though the norm wasn't all that different than today. Lots of months that would be perfectly at home in today's climate. It's human nature to focus on the more fun extremes, of course.

[wx_statman]

I would bet that many locations saw one of their greatest monthly spreads on record in Sep 1972, between the top tier heatwave to start the month and the huge cold wave towards the end.

 

November 2010 was stiff competition there. There were some locations in western WA that had a 70 degree spread that month, like Enumclaw RAWS at 73-3. 

[Phil]

Then are we to distrust all ASOS sensors?

 

You have to draw a line somewhere. Which is why I'm saying that assuming an ASOS sensor is faulty should be a last resort, after all natural causes have been eliminated. When its "obviously" faulty, even though that's a subjective definition. To me personally, the AST sensor isn't "obviously" faulty because its July temperatures fell in line with both OTH and Long Beach.

Then let me rephrase. I'd say there's a healthy chance the AST sensor is running warm, somewhere in the vicinity of 1-2 degrees.

 

I'm not saying the positive monthly temperature is solely due to the sensor (I suspect the monthly departure was, in fact, positive, regardless of any potential sensor issue).

[GHweatherChris]

I'd put money down that the sensor is creeping warm. Whether that's the only issue, I don't know, but my hunch is that it's a combination of factors.

 

Regarding the sensor issue, I've seen this happen so many times..I work with these multipurpose ultrasonic sensors everyday. I have eight sensors, all cross calibrated and tuned. They can perform beautifully for months, then one will randomly start to creep (usually the ones exposed to solar radiation) and will either need to be recalibrated or replaced entirely.

Wait, I thought you were doing landscaping right now and then going back to school.....?

[MossMan]

Sensors...anomalies...departures...I just want sun and warmth in spring and summer, modestly dry and pleasant in fall, and cold/snow/windstorms in winter. Why do we care so much if the airport at Olympia had a -1 or +1 departure in July? Guess I am just a simpleton that way. People are getting a little too excited/pissed off about it...just my dumb opinion though. Continue on.

[BLI snowman]

It was different, for sure - but still generally a temperate, maritime climate. The following year, 1885, actually averaged more than 1.5 degrees warmer than 2013.

 

1885 was a freakishly sunny and warm (ridgy) year for the time. Portland would not see a warmer year until 1926. It was that era's equivalent to a 2015 or 1992.

 

For an example of what a freakishly cold year could do back then, look no further than 1893 which averaged 50.1 in downtown Portland. The coldest 20th century year there was 1.5 degrees warmer (1916).

[Phil]

Wait, I thought you were doing landscaping right now and then going back to school.....?

Yeah, what's your point?

 

My classes resume on Tuesday.

[Trainwreck]

Sensors...anomalies...departures...I just want sun and warmth in spring and summer, modestly dry and pleasant in fall, and cold/snow/windstorms in winter. Why do we care so much if the airport at Olympia had a -1 or +1 departure in July? Guess I am just a simpleton that way. People are getting a little too excited/pissed off about it...just my dumb opinion though. Continue on.

+1 Moss. I totally agree. The Astoria debate here is redundant and really,,,,,, who cares?! I want snow in winter and sun in summer.

[wx_statman]

1885 was a freakishly sunny and warm (ridgy) year for the time. Portland would not see a warmer year until 1926. It was that era's equivalent to a 2015 or 1992.

 

For an example of a freakishly cold year could do back then, look no further than 1893 which averaged 50.1 in downtown Portland. The coldest 20th century year there was 1.5 degrees warmer (1916).

 

I'm willing to bet there were Krakatoa influences there. The atmosphere was out of wack with all the sulfur from the eruption. We might have been the lucky ones to receive long-wave ridging out of that setup. 

[wx_statman]

+1 Moss. I totally agree. The Astoria debate here is redundant and really,,,,,, who cares?! I want snow in winter and sun in summer.

 

Its science!  

[GHweatherChris]

Yeah, what's your point?

 

My classes resume on Tuesday.

Why would you work around the sensors your arguing about every day if your doing landscaping?

 

Are you just landscaping around wather sensors and stations?

[Phil]

Why would you work around the sensors your arguing about every day if your doing landscaping?

 

Are you just landscaping around wather sensors and stations?

WTF?

 

So I can't have a hobby because I work for a landscaping company? I literally have no idea what you're trying to argue here.

[Front Ranger]

November 2010 was stiff competition there. There were some locations in western WA that had a 70 degree spread that month, like Enumclaw RAWS at 73-3. 

 

That's right, I remember the talk about that when it happened.

 

The largest spread I can find for Sep 1972 was 72 degrees for SLE. High of 98, low of 26.

[Phil]

GHweatherChris...yikes. Dude is the mother of all things stupid and unnecessary on this planet.

[Timmy Supercell]

It's unfortunate Wunderground does not go back to 1972 in Klamath Falls. Other than [records in brackets by date] you can't access monthly weather history for KLMT further than 40 or so years.

 

Any sites have info dating back further than this for small towns?

[GHweatherChris]

WTF?

 

So I can't have a hobby because I work for a landscaping company? I literally have no idea what you're trying to argue here.

Not arguing, just looking for clarification.

[wx_statman]

That's right, I remember the talk about that when it happened.

 

The largest spread I can find for Sep 1972 was 72 degrees for SLE. High of 98, low of 26.

 

That's pretty incredible for our climate.

 

Though not confined to one calendar month, Salem had a high of 91 on 10/9/1936 and a low of 13 on 11/2. 

 

Then there's Powers RAWS, which went from 95 on 10/26 to 26 on 10/31 back in 2003. 

[wx_statman]

It's unfortunate Wunderground does not go back to 1972 in Klamath Falls. Other than [records in brackets by date] you can't access monthly weather history for KLMT further than 40 or so years.

 

Any sites have info dating back further than this for small towns?

 

The NCDC and the Utah Climate Center.

[BLI snowman]

I'm willing to bet there were Krakatoa influences there. The atmosphere was out of wack with all the sulfur from the eruption. We might have been the lucky ones to receive long-wave ridging out of that setup.

And not surprisingly that was one of the coldest years on record in the Mid Atlantic. February and March 1885 in particular must have had massive blocking, SE trough and NW ridge.

[Trainwreck]

I have a Davis vue that I won at the Omsi winter weather meeting three years ago and find its pretty accurate for the most part. But back in December of '14 when Redmond hit -28 it only registered a -6.5. It's up high on a pole on the back fence not close to anything that could obstruct it. I've seen it a few times in the past as well that it reads warm in the winter months. Any ideas?

[snow_wizard]

Yep, winters definitely had colder/snowier extremes, though the norm wasn't all that different than today. Lots of months that would be perfectly at home in today's climate. It's human nature to focus on the more fun extremes, of course.

 

What you said just isn't true for January.  That month was a totally different animal prior to 1975.

[snow_wizard]

I love that analog. PDX got 35.1" of snow that Winter.

 

I love your choice of analogs.  The snowier the better!

[snow_wizard]

I have a Davis vue that I won at the Omsi winter weather meeting three years ago and find its pretty accurate for the most part. But back in December of '14 when Redmond hit -28 it only registered a -6.5. It's up high on a pole on the back fence not close to anything that could obstruct it. I've seen it a few times in the past as well that it reads warm in the winter months. Any ideas?

 

You may have the temperature sensor too far off the ground.  On cold / clear mornings temps are colder the closer to the ground you get.  I think official mounting height is supposed to be 6 feet.

[TT-SEA]

I love your choice of analogs.  The snowier the better!

 

 

Teaching the young jedi well in the ways of snow wizardy.  

[snow_wizard]

That's right, I remember the talk about that when it happened.

 

The largest spread I can find for Sep 1972 was 72 degrees for SLE. High of 98, low of 26.

 

Nov 2010 was quite impressive for some places also.  I had a 72 - 8 spread here.  I really liked that month.

 

Oops...I just saw the post I was replying to was in regard to Nov 2010.

[snow_wizard]

In regard to this basically being the same climate as it was in the 19th century.  Check out the yearly snowfall totals for Portland from 1871 to 1900 and compare that to the last 30 years.  Nobody would think the two sets of numbers are from the same place if they didn't know better.

[Front Ranger]

What you said just isn't true for January.  That month was a totally different animal prior to 1975.

 

It's all relative. Most Januaries in Seattle before 1975 had average temps very close to what Dec/Jan have seen since then. 

 

At the downtown Seattle station, there were just 9 Januaries between 1894 and 1972 with average temps below 35. Most were in the 38-44 range, as most are now.

 

Obviously January has been in a major drought, snowfall used to be more common, and the climate has warmed over the past 100+ years, but it was not a drastically different climate back then.

[Front Ranger]

In regard to this basically being the same climate as it was in the 19th century.  Check out the yearly snowfall totals for Portland from 1871 to 1900 and compare that to the last 30 years.  Nobody would think the two sets of numbers are from the same place if they didn't know better.

 

I just don't think a week or two in the winter with significant snow completely changes the climate. Most of the time, the winter climate was still mild/wet, with occasional aberrations to cold and snowy.

[TT-SEA]

I just don't think a week or two in the winter with significant snow completely changes the climate. Most of the time, the winter climate was still mild/wet, with occasional aberrations to cold and snowy.

 

 

Tim?

[Front Ranger]

Teaching the young jedi well in the ways of snow wizardy.  

 

He may be 65 for all we know.

[TT-SEA]

He may be 65 for all we know.

 

 

I am guessing 15.

[Front Ranger]

Tim?

 

You make valid points on occasion. 

[wx_statman]

In regard to this basically being the same climate as it was in the 19th century.  Check out the yearly snowfall totals for Portland from 1871 to 1900 and compare that to the last 30 years.  Nobody would think the two sets of numbers are from the same place if they didn't know better.

 

The climate was technically the same, warm-summer Mediterranean. 

 

But yeah, it has definitely warmed. I'm willing to bet that the latitudinal shift from 1850 to today has been on the order of 200 miles. In other words, Portland's climate in 1850 was more analogous to the present day (post-2000) climate in Whatcom County, with obviously warmer summers since we're away from the water here. 

[snow_wizard]

I just don't think a week or two in the winter with significant snow completely changes the climate. Most of the time, the winter climate was still mild/wet, with occasional aberrations to cold and snowy.

 

I think you are over simplifying it.  Number of days with snow on the ground used to be much higher also.  Most of this is due to January cold events being longer lasting and snowier than cold events in other months.  The winters were more satisfying back then.

[snow_wizard]

The climate was technically the same, warm-summer Mediterranean. 

 

But yeah, it has definitely warmed. I'm willing to bet that the latitudinal shift from 1850 to today has been on the order of 200 miles. In other words, Portland's climate in 1850 was more analogous to the present day (post-2000) climate in Whatcom County, with obviously warmer summers since we're away from the water here. 

 

I wonder how many winter like 1915-16, 1928-29, 1929-30, 1936-37, 1949-50, etc. they have had on the Mediterranean.  I just don't like that label.

[snow_wizard]

Teaching the young jedi well in the ways of snow wizardy.  

 

For sure.

[TT-SEA]

I wonder how many winter like 1915-16, 1928-29, 1929-30, 1936-37, 1949-50, etc. they have had on the Mediterranean.  I just don't like that label.

 

 

The Mexican restaurant here in North Bend has palm trees planted across the entire front of the building... they have been there for at least a decade and they are thriving and getting bigger every year.    And that is out here in the foothills where it snows every winter and has gotten really cold (e.g. Dec 2008 and Nov 2010)   So many homes along the Lake Sammamish waterfront have palm trees too.    

 

Our climate is just gentle enough for them and I doubt they are going away any time soon.   

[Phil]

Palm trees at that latitude? Haha.

 

Can barely get those things to grow in North Carolina.

[Deweydog]

GHweatherChris...yikes. Dude is the mother of all things stupid and unnecessary on this planet.

Class.

[Deweydog]

Imagine the horror if we found out some senors are actually running too cold.