August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[wx_statman]

I wonder how many winter like 1915-16, 1928-29, 1929-30, 1936-37, 1949-50, etc. they have had on the Mediterranean.  I just don't like that label.

 

I know you don't. 

 

Doesn't change things though. Besides, the northern tier of the Mediterranean can get pretty cold and snowy. 

[snow_wizard]

Palm trees at that latitude? Haha.

 

Can barely get those things to grow in North Carolina.

 

They only do well in the warmer areas near large bodies of water.  The coldest winters kill off large numbers of them.

[snow_wizard]

I know you don't. 

 

Doesn't change things though. Besides, the northern tier of the Mediterranean can get pretty cold and snowy. 

 

I know...it just bugs me.  I much more prefer calling it maritime.  Seattle certainly comes closer to the definition than Portland.

[wx_statman]

The Mexican restaurant here in North Bend has palm trees planted across the entire front of the building... they have been there for at least a decade and they are thriving and getting bigger every year.    And that is out here in the foothills where it snows every winter and has gotten really cold (e.g. Dec 2008 and Nov 2010)   So many homes along the Lake Sammamish waterfront have palm trees too.    

 

Our climate is just gentle enough for them and I doubt they are going away any time soon.  

 

You know they grow palm trees up in Victoria too? Our climate can totally support them, at least the hardy varieties. 

[TT-SEA]

Palm trees at that latitude? Haha.

 

All over the place.   Come boating with us and float by all the lake front homes on Lake Washington and Lake Sammamish.   But even here in the foothills they do well.  

 

December 2008 should have crippled them and November 2010 should have finished them off.    It was down to about 5 degrees here.  

 

Nope.   They are everywhere.   

 

We had a free night at the Hilton... so we stayed there last weekend in Bellevue.  Just 20 minutes from home... let my daughter play in the pool.    They have palm trees around the pool.    There were more behind me and off to the left.   The yellow color is not the palm tree but a deciduous tree behind it.     

 

[wx_statman]

Jim, at least you're not in Galway, Ireland. They grow palms at 53N there. January average warmer than Seattle. 

[snow_wizard]

It's interesting in reading up on the Koppen climate classification system it states that native vegetation is a large part of it.  I can't recall seeing pictures of many fir or pine trees in that part of the world...

[Phil]

All over the place. Come boating with us and float by all the lake front homes on Lake Washington and Lake Sammamish. But even here in the foothills they do well.

 

December 2008 should have crippled them and November 2010 should have finished them off. It was down to about 5 degrees here.

 

Nope. They are everywhere.

 

We had a free night at the Hilton... so we stayed there last weekend in Bellevue. Just 20 minutes from home... let my daughter play in the pool. They have palm trees around the pool. There were more behind me and off to the left. The yellow color is not the palm tree but a deciduous tree behind it.

 

Fascinating.

 

In that case, I wonder why we can't get them to grow here? Both my cousin and a number of my neighbors have tried (multiple times) to grow hardy palms/cabbage palmettos, and they'd die in January and/or February every time. We even get more sunlight than you guys. I wonder if it's just too cold at night.

[snow_wizard]

You know they grow palm trees up in Victoria too? Our climate can totally support them, at least the hardy varieties. 

 

Yes...the non tropical ones.  They aren't native here either which is well worth mentioning.

 

FWIW I had two neighbors that tried to grow them and they got frozen out.  One in Dec 2008 and the other Nov 2010.  It could be the extremely dry east wind that does them in as much as the cold.

[BLI snowman]

I just don't think a week or two in the winter with significant snow completely changes the climate. Most of the time, the winter climate was still mild/wet, with occasional aberrations to cold and snowy.

In general terms this is true. Obviously being downwind of a massive ocean and moderating conveyor belt will do that.

 

But it is worth noting that the changes in the severity of our cold extremes perhaps belie the overall amount of average warming since then. Which is to say that our most extreme periods of winter in the 19th century simply stratospherically smash any of what we are seeing in the modern day.

 

Stretches like 1846-47, 1861-62, 1867-68, and 1887-88 aren't just a degree or two colder than our most extreme contemporary winters (1992-93, 2008-09). More on the order of 6-7 degrees. It is a massive gulf between what we were capable of then versus now.

[TT-SEA]

Yes...the non tropical ones.  They aren't native here either which is well worth mentioning.

 

 

From what I understand... there are almost no palm trees native to Southern California either.    None in coastal San Diego.   There are native pine trees there though.  

[snow_wizard]

Sensors...anomalies...departures...I just want sun and warmth in spring and summer, modestly dry and pleasant in fall, and cold/snow/windstorms in winter. Why do we care so much if the airport at Olympia had a -1 or +1 departure in July? Guess I am just a simpleton that way. People are getting a little too excited/pissed off about it...just my dumb opinion though. Continue on.

 

Jesse made a great point the other day.  Extreme warmth in the warm season has equated to extremely mild winters lately.  It might be time to try something new.  We have had some great winters preceded by hot summers, but that is not the norm.

[Phil]

That palm tree in Tim's picture looks healthier than a lot of the palms I just saw in Tampa, FL.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Fascinating.

 

In that case, I wonder why we can't get them to grow here. Both my cousin and a number of my neighbors have tried (multiple times) to grow hardy palms/cabbage palmettos, and they'd die in January and/or February every time.

 

I've grown them from the seed and know a fair amount about the different species. The one you're looking at originates high in the Himalayas in a climate that regularly sees very cold winter nights / snow and cool summers; a harsher average climate than many parts of our region. Most of the native vegetation up there is deciduous. It's more at risk of drying out in our warm dry summers than from frost in the winter. Only a month like Jan 1950 with extended periods of sub-freezing highs would have a chance at taking out a mature tree.

 

 

The reason that species won't grow there probably has a lot to do with your humid summers; though the number of sub-freezing daytime highs could do it too (or both). Most cold-hardy palms from that region and other alpine regions hate hot humid weather in the summer. Your best bet is the needle palm (Rhapidophyllum hytrix), cold hardy to about -10F and a heat lover; they do poorly up here because our summers are too cool.

 

This one is supposedly growing in New York:

 

[TT-SEA]

Jesse made a great point the other day.  Extreme warmth in the warm season has equated to extremely mild winters lately.  It might be time to try something new.  We have had some great winters preceded by hot summers, but that is not the norm.

 

 

We don't control it... we take what we are given.

 

And some of us have no problem enjoying the warm summer weather we are given.    

[Phil]

I've grown them from the seed and know a fair amount about the different species. The one you're looking at originates high in the Himalayas in a climate that regularly sees very cold winter nights / snow and cool summers; a harsher average climate than many parts of our region. Most of the native vegetation up there is deciduous. It's more at risk of drying out in our warm dry summers than from frost in the winter. Only a month like Jan 1950 with extended periods of sub-freezing highs would have a chance at taking out a mature tree.

 

 

The reason that species won't grow there probably has a lot to do with your humid summers; though the number of sub-freezing daytime highs could do it too (or both). Most cold-hardy palms from that region and other alpine regions hate hot humid weather in the summer. Your best bet is the needle palm (Rhapidophyllum hytrix), cold hardy to about -10F and a heat lover; they do poorly up here because our summers are too cool.

 

This one is supposedly growing in New York:

 

Well, I learned something new today. Thanks for the reply, very informative.

 

Yeah, they'd noticeably wilt in summer, with some of the tips of the foliage dying. They would then try to come back in October/November/December before just abruptly dying in the heart of winter, during the coldest temperatures.

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS continues with the idea of an unseasonably cool trough and strong cold front early next week.  Plenty of cool weather before that also.

[wx_statman]

In general terms this is true. Obviously being downwind of a massive ocean and moderating conveyor belt will do that.

 

But it is worth noting that the changes in the severity of our cold extremes perhaps belie the overall amount of average warming since then. Which is to say that our most extreme periods of winter in the 19th century simply stratospherically smash any of what we are seeing in the modern day.

 

Stretches like 1846-47, 1861-62, 1867-68, and 1887-88 aren't just a degree or two colder than our most extreme contemporary winters (1992-93, 2008-09). More on the order of 6-7 degrees. It is a massive gulf between what we were capable of then versus now.

 

Exactly. Its the capability gap that sticks out. The background climate hasn't changed that much, especially to a lay person. 

[snow_wizard]

I feel a little better now after seeing places like New Jersey are actually classified as being sub tropical.  I would hate that more than Mediterranean.

[TT-SEA]

I feel a little better now after seeing places like New Jersey are actually classified as being sub tropical.  I would hate that more than Mediterranean.

 

I thought you were moving to Montana?    Don't worry about the climate label here.   Or anywhere... its just a label.  

 

It will still be "Mediterranean" here long after you and I are gone from this Earth.   

[Phil]

I feel a little better now after seeing places like New Jersey are actually classified as being sub tropical. I would hate that more than Mediterranean.

I share a climate zone with f**king Tampa, FL. You have no reason to be complaining.

[snow_wizard]

Exactly. Its the capability gap that sticks out. The background climate hasn't changed that much, especially to a lay person. 

 

I think the actual climate has changed on January.  I agree the other cold season months are closer to the same as they've always been.

 

In the case of January the entire feel of the month has changed and there has been almost an entire lack of Arctic air for over 30 year now.  It used to be we averaged at least a minor Arctic episode every 2 to 3 years with snow a reasonably common occurrence.  This is aside from the absolute greats.

[snow_wizard]

I share a climate zone with f**king Tampa, FL. You have no reason to be complaining.

 

I hate the palm tree thing too.  I liked seeing the ones in my neighborhood die.

[TT-SEA]

I share a climate zone with f**king Tampa, FL. You have no reason to be complaining.

I think we share a general climate zone with San Diego.

[wx_statman]

I think the actual climate has changed on January.  I agree the other cold season months are closer to the same as they've always been.

 

In the case of January the entire feel of the month has changed and there has been almost an entire lack of Arctic air for over 30 year now.  It used to be we averaged at least a minor Arctic episode every 2 to 3 years with snow a reasonably common occurrence.  This is aside from the absolute greats.

 

Its just semantics how you want to classify the changes. Something definitely changed with January, but I would imagine we'll see a reversion at some point. We won't go back to 19th century January's or even pre-1980 January's - because that would require a climate that's at least 1F cooler. But January will have to improve at some point relative to December and February. That part is cyclical. 

[Kayla]

I feel like the question we should all be asking is how accurate were our temperature readings in the past?? Not very. ASOS's, as you all know are current weather observing systems and are used as such with the latest weather monitoring technology that we have. But technology changes, and they were never designed to constantly be cross referenced with other past readings. Yet you guys reference temperature readings to before the Wright brothers were born?? The FAA has really cracked down on AWOS monitoring over just the last ~10 years with now 90 day maintenance checks for all the majors.

 

Now I understand that it's all we have to go off of but comparing such (relatively) small temperature departures over the past 30 or 100+ years from a varied datum line is something that should be taken for what is is. Not completely accurate.

[Phil]

I think we share a general zone with San Diego.

That entire classification system might work for scientific purposes, but that's about it IMO. Perceptually it's lol-worthy.

 

Our summers are actually purely tropical in every respect. Our winters, on the other hand, are almost purely continental, even cold-continental in the middle & higher elevations. Hard to reconcile that with fooking Tampa.

[snow_wizard]

Its just semantics how you want to classify the changes. Something definitely changed with January, but I would imagine we'll see a reversion at some point. We won't go back to 19th century January's or even pre-1980 January's - because that would require a climate that's at least 1F cooler. But January will have to improve at some point relative to December and February. That part is cyclical. 

 

I agree.  The big question is could we come up with a January 1950 type month, but just average 1F warmer.  No reason we can't.

[snow_wizard]

I think we share a general climate zone with San Diego.

 

Nope...they are hot summer Med (even though their summers aren't that hot).  The whole Koppen system is kind of messed up IMO.

[ShawniganLake]

You know they grow palm trees up in Victoria too? Our climate can totally support them, at least the hardy varieties.

I know of some near here that have grown to ~15ft in height. They may need some help through the cold weather when they are young. But after a few years and some hardening off they can survive to -20C and sometimes below. People grow lots of things much less cold hardy than palm trees around here.

[Phil]

The antecedent Pacific Hadley Circulation has migrated/expanded poleward by ~10 degrees since 1979, probably more-so since 1950. That certainly changes the equations for you guys.

[wx_statman]

I feel like the question we should all be asking is how accurate were our temperature readings in the past?? Not very. ASOS's, as you all know are current weather observing systems and are used as such with the latest weather monitoring technology that we have. But technology changes, and they were never designed to constantly be cross referenced with other past readings. Yet you guys reference temperature readings to before the Wright brothers were born?? The FAA has really cracked down on AWOS monitoring over just the last ~10 years with now 90 day maintenance checks for all the majors.

 

Now I understand that it's all we have to go off of but comparing such (relatively) small temperature departures over the past 30 or 100+ years from a varied datum line is something that should be taken for what is is. Not completely accurate.

 

The WRCC and NCDC are unfortunately littered with questionable readings from the late 19th and early 20th century, especially during the warm season. Some of them even survive as state records, including for both OR and CA. I'm a little surprised that more effort hasn't been made to QC and scrub some of the obviously questionable readings from the record books. 

[snow_wizard]

I feel like the question we should all be asking is how accurate were our temperature readings in the past?? Not very. ASOS's, as you all know are current weather observing systems and are used as such with the latest weather monitoring technology that we have. But technology changes, and they were never designed to constantly be cross referenced with other past readings. Yet you guys reference temperature readings to before the Wright brothers were born?? The FAA has really cracked down on AWOS monitoring over just the last ~10 years with now 90 day maintenance checks for all the majors.

 

Now I understand that it's all we have to go off of but comparing such (relatively) small temperature departures over the past 30 or 100+ years from a varied datum line is something that should be taken for what is is. Not completely accurate.

 

I think the fact snowfall averages used to be 3 to 4 times higher pretty well speaks for itself.  Then you have the times the Columbia River froze at Portland, and the ground froze to depths over one foot.  There is no question the old time cold waves were real.  The old mercury thermometers were pretty accurate.  In fact I think more trustworthy than sensors which can slowly degrade over time.

[snow_wizard]

I know of some near here that have grown to ~15ft in height. They may need some help through the cold weather when they are young. But after a few years and some hardening off they can survive to -20C and sometimes below. People grow lots of things much less cold hardy than palm trees around here.

 

The ones that froze out here were young so you are probably right.

[wx_statman]

I agree.  The big question is could we come up with a January 1950 type month, but just average 1F warmer.  No reason we can't.

 

No, because its not a linear process. To get a winter like 1949-50 you need a chain reaction of events that might not even initialize the same way in a climate that's 1F warmer.

[snow_wizard]

The WRCC and NCDC are unfortunately littered with questionable readings from the late 19th and early 20th century, especially during the warm season. Some of them even survive as state records, including for both OR and CA. I'm a little surprised that more effort hasn't been made to QC and scrub some of the obviously questionable readings from the record books. 

 

I think he was trying to make the case the 19th century cold waves are somehow in doubt.  That premise is easy to disprove.

[snow_wizard]

No, because its not a linear process. To get a winter like 1949-50 you need a chain reaction of events that might not even initialize the same way in a climate that's 1F warmer.

 

There is really no way to prove that though.  Freakish things can and do happen.

[TT-SEA]

Nope...they are hot summer Med (even though their summers aren't that hot).  The whole Koppen system is kind of messed up IMO.

 

I have seen where San Diego is called dry Mediterranean... but its Csa.

 

Seattle is warm summer Mediterranean... Csb.

 

Either way... we share the Mediterranean label with San Diego.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Well, I learned something new today. Thanks for the reply, very informative.

 

Yeah, they'd noticeably wilt in summer, with some of the tips of the foliage dying. They would then try to come back in October/November/December before just abruptly dying in the heart of winter, during the coldest temperatures.

 

Glad I could be helpful. That makes sense that they would come back in the fall, I've noticed even here they grow best between 55-75F and growth will slow down markedly above 80F. It just happens that the conditions they prefer to grow in are pretty common around here. If our summers were any wetter they'd probably have spread into the native forests; even as it is I've noticed them seed propagate in some of the parks around town, with even the seedlings breezing through the winter cold. If your summers were cooler you'd have a much better chance at keeping them alive.

[snow_wizard]

The antecedent Pacific Hadley Circulation has migrated/expanded poleward by ~10 degrees since 1979, probably more-so since 1950. That certainly changes the equations for you guys.

 

Let's hope that changes.