August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

If you look at the pattern leading up to the 10th or so, it was trying to head that direction. Of course, the main trough ended up being too far east and progressive.

I know you and January 2013 have a "history" but the description you just gave can be applied to so many scenarios over the years, be it in January or any other cold season month.

[Front Ranger]

I wouldn't say it had the full latitude teeth required to get us very cold. Just not much cold for us to tap into with our fleeting 500mb dip. The PNA was negative for a total of 4-5 days and the troughing pattern was always a lock to be a progressive one for us. Didn't even feel like a swing and a miss. 

 

2005 and 2008 were different because multiple factors were aligned in our favor for a 10-15 day stretch. In both cases we ended up getting great upper level setups that were essentially just horrifically watered down. 2008 in particular had almost everything go right over us from a 500mb perspective, but that episode had essentially had no tap into the PV and ended up being a bunch of modified crap. 

 

Yup. And sadly it was still enough to result in one of the colder Januaries of the past 20 years.

[Phil]

Yup. And sadly it was still enough to result in one of the colder Januaries of the past 20 years.

Wasn't it basically all inversion-driven, though? I know that 850mb temperatures finished relatively warm.

[Front Ranger]

I know you and January 2013 have a "history" but the description you just gave can be applied to so many scenarios over the years, be it in January or any other cold season month.

 

Hey, give that month a little credit. There haven't been many Januaries like this for the West recently.

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Wasn't it basically all inversion-driven, though? I know that 850mb temperatures finished relatively warm.

 

A lot of it was after the initial trough and surge of cold air, but sometimes that's what it takes to get a cold winter month in the west. Just ridging alone does not produce that cold/widespread of inversions.

[Deweydog]

Hey, give that month a little credit. There haven't been many Januaries like this for the West recently.

 

 

Jan13TDeptWRCC.png

I like to think we're still due. Makes me feel betterer.

[Bryant]

A lot of it was after the initial trough and surge of cold air, but sometimes that's what it takes to get a cold winter month in the west. Just ridging alone does not produce that cold/widespread of inversions.

Any thunderstorm action down your way right now?

[Front Ranger]

[Bryant]

The raw output on those models is comically wrong... never look at them or the meteostar.

 

The GFS MOS has low 70s for SEA for the weekend and 71,76,77 at PDX. Fairly similar to the ECMWF.

 

ECMWF is the best we have for guidance... no question.

If they were warm would they still be comically wrong?

[Deweydog]

[Front Ranger]

Any thunderstorm action down your way right now?

Not where I am in Boulder, though it looks like some storms are moving in to the south. And they're moving east to west, which is fairly unusual.

 

You?

[Front Ranger]

Wasn't it basically all inversion-driven, though? I know that 850mb temperatures finished relatively warm.

 

Much of the West actually had below normal 850s that month. And you can see that offshore blocking was very close to where people here want it.

 

 

[wx_statman]

Much of the West actually had below normal 850s that month. And you can see that offshore blocking was very close to where people here want it.

 

zVob7LbiGj.png

 

Salt Lake City had its coldest January since 1949, but here in the I-5 corridor that winter wasn't one to write home about. 

[Bryant]

Not where I am in Boulder, though it looks like some storms are moving in to the south. And they're moving east to west, which is fairly unusual.

 

You?

Heading in from the NE right now, which I also found unusual. Figured the storms would move West to East, but I don't know the area. Just started to pick up here a bit

[Phil]

Much of the West actually had below normal 850s that month. And you can see that offshore blocking was very close to where people here want it.

 

zVob7LbiGj.png

Sorry, I was referring to the PNW in particular, in regards to 850mb temperatures.

 

The block itself was located too far east, which I believe was my argument at the time. The entire equator-to-pole complex was situated too far east, actually (IMO).

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2AD2FA31-63D6-4702-AEDA-55DFA0D5E6F7_zpsulm6owos.png

[Phil]

If the offshore block had amplified poleward as the primary anticyclonic breaker, it could have delivered at that longitude (IMO).

 

However, the Eurasian anticyclone broke poleward first, disrupting the PV and propagating into the polar domain. This prevented the NPAC anticyclone from breaking.

 

Seems to be a trend in -ENSO winters w/ -QBOs outside solar minimum. They'll typically struggle to get that NPAC anticyclone to break past the zero wind line.

[Front Ranger]

Sorry, I was referring to the PNW in particular, in regards to 850mb temperatures.

 

The block itself was located too far east, which I believe was my argument at the time. The entire equator-to-pole complex was situated too far east, actually (IMO).

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2AD2FA31-63D6-4702-AEDA-55DFA0D5E6F7_zpsulm6owos.png

 

Yep, just a bit east and not sustained enough amplification. A closer call than most recent Januaries, though, and pretty easy to see why it was so cold in some places.

[Trainwreck]

Both. Even if it could get cold enough for a long period of time to freeze the Columbia River or create ice chunks, there is no way it well ever happen. There are ships that flow up and down the Columbia River daily. They will increase the water levels and the flow if they think it might freeze over.

The arctic blast of '03-'04 I lived in northeast Portland. I remember ice chunks flowing down the Columbia river near Fairview. '08 as well. Pretty cool to see.

[TT-SEA]

If they were warm would they still be comically wrong?

Yes. They run way warm and way cold depending on the pattern. Try using it for a week and see how it goes.

 

Dude... I talk about cool temps and rain as well. I have been accused MANY times of being too negative in terms of my own preferences. You just want to rip on me either way. Even when I report the ECMWF temp guidance (which is the best we have) and just the facts on what it shows for the holiday weekend.

[Kayla]

74, 75, 80 at PDX with sunshine each day of 3-day weekend per the 12Z ECMWF.  

 

 

Focused just on the holiday weekend... reporting actual numbers from the 12Z ECMWF.   

 

Ignore it if you don't want to know what it shows.  

 

But the actual fact is that the 12z ECMWF shows 74, 75, and 79 for the holiday weekend, not 80. If you are going to report the "actual numbers" then post the actual numbers please.

 

FWIW, the ensemble mean is lower for the same 3 days at 73, 74, 75.

[TT-SEA]

But the actual fact is that the 12z ECMWF shows 74, 75, and 79 for the holiday weekend, not 80. If you are going to report the "actual numbers" then post the actual numbers please.

 

FWIW, the ensemble mean is lower for the same 3 days at 73, 74, 74.

I was looking at the map as the exact forecast by city was not out. Same basic thing. Have not looked at EPS at all... on lake now.

[Trainwreck]

Rob? Oh Rob where art thou?

[Deweydog]

90 looking pretty unlikely today at PDX.

[wx_statman]

There have been plenty, but 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010 and 2013 all saw generally cool autumns regionally.

 

2008 had a cool Sepember/October but November torched.

 

Post-2010 autumns have been torchy on the whole for sure. We're due!

 

2007 was the ultimate tease. PDX didn't hit 76 after September 11th that year, which is the only time that's ever happened (after 9/12 in 1959 is next closest). 

 

But the winter still produced 0" snowfall at PDX and no real Arctic air. 

[snow_wizard]

Amazingly every member of the 18z GFS ensemble has 850s dropping to 3C or lower around the 3rd.  Pretty chilly.

[GHweatherChris]

You took my post(s) completely out of context on multiple occasions yesterday. No one else seemed to have that particular problem. I'm aware that many of my posts are filled with acronyms and somewhat theoretical concepts that might not make sense..sometimes I forget to elaborate on things, and I take responsibility for that.

 

As for GHweatherChris, the dude adds nothing..he's only here to troll. I'm surprised you're even defending the d**chebag.

LOL.

 

I am mostly just an observer on this forum until winter time and then when there is something good to track I will participate, especially since it's my favorite season, rain and all.

 

I have been this way since I joined the forum.

 

But, no matter the time of year I will always call a spade a spade, or a Jackass, you pick.

[Trainwreck]

LOL.

 

I am mostly just an observer on this forum until winter time and then when there is something good to track I will participate, especially since it's my favorite season, rain and all.

 

I have been this way since I joined the forum.

 

But, no matter the time of year I will always call a spade a spade, or a Jackass, you pick.

Whoa, easy fellas. It's just weather.

[Phil]

LOL.

 

I am mostly just an observer on this forum until winter time and then when there is something good to track I will participate, especially since it's my favorite season, rain and all.

 

I have been this way since I joined the forum.

 

But, no matter the time of year I will always call a spade a spade, or a Jackass, you pick.

You've developed this weird obsession with my job and personal life, for whatever reason. It's fuucking creepy, dude.

[Deweydog]

You've developed this weird obsession with my job and personal life, for whatever reason. It's fuucking creepy, dude.

Pretty soon he'll be sniffing out your testosterone level. Your man musk.

[wx_statman]

You've developed this weird obsession with my job and personal life, for whatever reason. It's fuucking creepy, dude.

 

I don't know GHweatherChris personally, but I'm pretty sure at least some of his animosity towards you is rooted in your - how do I say it - rather checkered history on this forum. Anyone who's been around this place for a few years remembers your act. I hate to dig up the past, but you basically spent 3-4 years lying to everyone here. You can't just play innocent now. You made this bed! 

[Deweydog]

I think it was mentioned a few days ago, but man oh man. That pattern in late Ocrober/early November 2003 was sexy.

 

If only...

[Front Ranger]

I see like 3 lurkers right now that have never posted, I don't think. Now that's creepy.

[TT-SEA]

I don't know GHweatherChris personally, but I'm pretty sure at least some of his animosity towards you is rooted in your - how do I say it - rather checkered history on this forum. Anyone who's been around this place for a few years remembers your act. I hate to dig up the past, but you basically spent 3-4 years lying to everyone here. You can't just play innocent now. You made this bed! 

 

 

Worse part is that he would attack viciously when you challenged aspects of this story.   And it turns out we were right to question it.   I honestly feel now that when he starts the personal attacks...  you are usually right in your argument and he does not know how else to react.     

 

That being said... he is a smart guy and provides valuable information.    But as Dewey pointed out today... he does have a Kevin Martin-esque flair for the dramatic.

 

He is a good guy at heart.   I have seen that come through many times.

[Deweydog]

I don't know GHweatherChris personally, but I'm pretty sure at least some of his animosity towards you is rooted in your - how do I say it - rather checkered history on this forum. Anyone who's been around this place for a few years remembers your act. I hate to dig up the past, but you basically spent 3-4 years lying to everyone here. You can't just play innocent now. You made this bed!

Some pretty sick lies, too. I recall being chastised for my insensitivity during an exchange as the memory of his dead infant was invoked.

 

Bad karma.

[Timmy Supercell]

Interesting sky today. Accas across the sky during sunrise a bit after I woke up... some VIRGA in the middle of the day and afternoon, and then more Accas around sunset (even a bit of mammatus looking pillows along with some yellow/orange colors).

 

I hope that's all a sign of what's to come tomorrow! Such a coincidence that I got some wine at the store today. Would like the booms and booze combination before the end of summer

[Phil]

I don't know GHweatherChris personally, but I'm pretty sure at least some of his animosity towards you is rooted in your - how do I say it - rather checkered history on this forum. Anyone who's been around this place for a few years remembers your act. I hate to dig up the past, but you basically spent 3-4 years lying to everyone here. You can't just play innocent now. You made this bed!

It's one thing to be cautiously skeptical, sure. It's another thing to become a full blown conspiracy theorist, just for the fun of it.

 

Talk about calling a spade a spade, there's a point at which it becomes clear when someone is merely out to troll.

[Phil]

Some pretty sick lies, too. I recall being chastised for my insensitivity during an exchange as the memory of his dead infant was invoked.

 

Bad karma.

That definitely wasn't me.

 

My cousin lost a child during birth. That's not something I'd mess around with.

[Phil]

For the record, I've been 100% honest since I provided my real location.

 

All my info is out there on social media. I converse with several folks from here on Twitter and Facebook, as a matter of fact.

[Leighbugs]

Front Ranger- I may or may not be one of those "creepy" lurkers, LOL. I'm a long time reader of this forum. I'm definitely a weather geek but I lack the knowledge that many others have so I don't say anything as the best I can usually do is give observations of my local weather. I'm only speaking up now because I almost posted earlier when you were all talking about this forum being comprised of mostly males- I'm a woman. I live in Maple Ridge, BC and actually know some of the other BC members here as we have our own little forum elsewhere.

 

Anyway, nice to "meet" you all. I'll probably go back to being "creepy" now though

[Deweydog]

That definitely wasn't me.

 

My cousin lost a child during birth. That's not something I'd mess around with.

It most certainly was. I remember having very mixed feelings about it at the time, thinking you were full of about so much else but not paricularly caring all that much because it was relatively benign. But there was also the consideration that you might have been telling the truth. I'm not a cruel individual, so I remember taking the high road. Something I don't do all that often.

 

It's in the OT archives. I remember immediately going back to it once Tim dilligently confirmed what was long suspected. It was supposedly the precursor to your alcohol problem which resulted in your legitimate bannings from other forums. I remember wondering why someone would try THAT hard to get an upper hand in a conversation.