August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Wow.

 

And just throw a match on that bridge.

 

Not even going to start again. Suffice to say it was very similar to the discussion last night... just drawn out. And you resorted to personal attacks... enough said.

Come on, dude. I couldn't even post a model image without you jumping on me. I seriously considered leaving for awhile.

 

No hard feelings from me about it...it's just a weather forum. I definitely won't be sharing my thoughts on summer next year, though.

[Phil]

For what its worth, I was going to call him out on the 8 sensors thing in yesterday's discussion. I just figured it wasn't worth going off on a tangent. But yeah, I don't think he has 8 sensors sitting around his yard. It smelled more like an attempt on his part to gain the upper hand in the conversation, to convey a level of expertise that doesn't exist.

 

Phil - sorry buddy. You brought this on yourself with yesterday's discussion.

If it really means that much to you, I'll take pictures and post them here, just for laughs if nothing else.

 

That kinda sounds ridiculous rolling off my keyboard, but I'm willing to do it.

[TT-SEA]

Come on, dude. I couldn't even post a model image without you jumping on me. I seriously considered leaving for awhile.

 

No hard feelings from me about it...it's just a weather forum. I definitely won't be sharing my thoughts on summer next year, though.

 

 

No you were not going to leave... and yes you will post your thoughts about next summer.  

 

You have a flair for the dramatic and the early July thread speaks for itself as a good example... just like last night.    I was right to call you out on some of your model interpretations.      Anyone can go back and judge for themselves.  

[Jesse]

Cooling down nicely this evening. Hopefully a good sign for a much cooler day tomorrow.

 

Those who went for mid-80s the last three days at PDX were certainly spot on. Unless the next few days overachieve (or just achieve) for coolness, 2016 will supplant 1981 as the 5th warmest August on record at PDX.

[Phil]

No you were not going to leave... and yes you will post your thoughts about next summer.

 

You have a flair for the dramatic and the early July thread speaks for itself as a good example of the spinning going on by you... just like last night. I was right to call you out on some of your model interpretations. Anyone can go back and judge for themselves.

Until you (in a post I saved) openly "conceded the bigger picture" to me, merely a few weeks later. In the process, you tried to suggest I was forecasting -10F departures, which I obviously wasn't, then used that mischaracterization to claim I was "being dramatic". Quite hypocritical if you ask me, considering you were really the one being a drama queen about the whole thing.

 

Also, aren't these the same model illustrations you're referencing now from WxBell?

[GHweatherChris]

If it really means that much to you, I'll take pictures and post them here, just for laughs if nothing else.

 

That kinda sounds ridiculous rolling off my keyboard, but I'm willing to do it.

Please do. Those things can't be cheap.

[wx_statman]

If it really means that much to you, I'll take pictures and post them here, just for laughs if nothing else.

 

That kinda sounds ridiculous rolling off my keyboard, but I'm willing to do it.

 

Don't bother. Its not that important. 

[TT-SEA]

Until you (in a post I saved) openly "conceded the bigger picture" to me, merely a few weeks later. In the process, you tried to suggest I was forecasting -10F departures, which I obviously wasn't.

 

Also, aren't these the same "model interpretations" you're referencing now?

 

Not getting into it... its all there for anyone to reference.   Glad I quoted some things though at the time or it could change.   

 

I said the regime change became apparent to me after the early June heat wave.    I was thinking it would come in August.   As it turns out... the early regime change allowed for a spectacular second half of the JJA period.    

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF has 75 at SEA and 78 at PDX tomorrow with afternoon sunshine.   

 

And then only 68 at PDX and 69 at SEA on Wednesday.

[Phil]

Not getting into it... its all there for anyone to reference. Glad I quoted some things though at the time or it could change.

 

I said the regime change became apparent to me after the early June heat wave. I was thinking it would come in August. As it turns out... the early regime change allowed for a spectacular second half of the JJA period.

I don't go back and delete/edit old posts. Ever. Honestly, who has the time/energy to do that?

[Phil]

Speaking of time and energy, I have class at 8AM tomorrow.

 

Have a good night everyone.

[TT-SEA]

I don't go back and delete/edit old posts. Ever. Honestly, who has the time/energy to do that?

 

Weren't you forecasting July to "blowtorch" as recently as early/mid June?

 

 

No... I think that was in April or early May.   Can't remember.

 

That was when I thought persistence would rule until August or September.  

 

Weren't you thinking a cool August just 6 days before the month started?  

 

I suspect troughing will dominate most of August. Niña forcing will be stronger than it has been in over 4yrs starting ~ 2 weeks from now.

 

[Phil]

No... I think that was in April or early May. Can't remember.

 

That was when I thought persistence would rule until August or September.

 

Weren't you thinking a cool August just 6 days before the month started?

Hey, you openly called for a cool August, too.

 

The first 10 days of August were very troughy. However, an unexpected bout of WPAC forcing shoved the NPAC anticyclone eastward during the middle of the month. Intraseasonal forcing can pull stunts like that sometimes.

[snow_wizard]

Fabulous WRF run tonight.  Lots of days with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.  That model is almost always high on the mins on clear nights.  If so there are a couple of night in the there that could produce some upper 30s to low 40s.  I feel like a nightmare of warmth is ending!

[TT-SEA]

And now the ECMWF shows mid-60s for both SEA and PDX on Thursday.    

 

That is a pretty big change from previous runs.  

[TT-SEA]

Fabulous WRF run tonight.  Lots of days with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.  That model is almost always high on the mins on clear nights.  If so there are a couple of night in the there that could produce some upper 30s to low 40s.  I feel like a nightmare of warmth is ending!

 

You said that exact same thing in May... and June... and July.  

 

Might be setting yourself up again for disappointment by the middle of the month.   

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF looks like its trending a little cooler with each day.   A good sign for cold weather lovers when the models trend that way right before an event.  

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF is actually way colder for the weekend... showing low 60s for SEA on Friday and Sunday now.  

 

Pretty significant change.

[BLI snowman]

And now the ECMWF shows mid-60s for both SEA and PDX on Thursday.    

 

That is a pretty big change from previous runs.  

 

Yeah, pretty good consensus on Thursday being the coldest afternoon this week now. Not record low-max territory but nice nonetheless. 

[May Grey]

A Sign of autumn coming? CDA will go from upper 80's to mid 60's by Thursdays with a rain showers.

 

[TT-SEA]

I am so used to looking only at strong Nino to strong Nina transition years as analogs because it was drilled into my head that we were heading for a strong Nina this winter by a few members here.  

 

Now that does not seem to be the case.    I still have not adjusted.  Strong Nino to strong Nina is actually much smaller subset of years.    Neutral or weak Nina includes many more years of course. 

 

It seems like 1980, 2004, and 2007 are coming up all the time recently as analogs for the upcoming pattern.   I like to look at the CPC analogs when there is strong blocking and a persistent anomalous pattern at the 500mb level (ridgy or troughy).    Its interesting to see examples of when this happened before.

 

The timing is off by a couple weeks in 2004 and 2007... and 2004 looks warmer overall.   2007 crashed in mid-September and that was it for warm weather.   1980 stayed generally warm well into October.     So there you go... no help at all.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It was already down to 60 in Salem when I left the state fair last night. Felt like early fall . 50 and cloudy this morning up here. 

[Deweydog]

I am so used to looking only at strong Nino to strong Nina transition years as analogs because it was drilled into my head that we were heading for a strong Nina this winter by a few members here.

 

Now that does not seem to be the case. I still have not adjusted. Strong Nino to strong Nina is actually much smaller subset of years. Neutral or weak Nina includes many more years of course.

 

It seems like 1980, 2004, and 2007 are coming up all the time recently as analogs for the upcoming pattern. I like to look at the CPC analogs when there is strong blocking and a persistent anomalous pattern at the 500mb level (ridgy or troughy). Its interesting to see examples of when this happened before.

 

The timing is off by a couple weeks in 2004 and 2007... and 2004 looks warmer overall. 2007 crashed in mid-September and that was it for warm weather. 1980 stayed generally warm well into October. So there you go... no help at all.

2004???

 

That's sure to ruffle some feathers!!!

[Phil]

I am so used to looking only at strong Nino to strong Nina transition years as analogs because it was drilled into my head that we were heading for a strong Nina this winter by a few members here.

By who, if I may ask?

 

Certainly was never my line of thinking, and I don't think anyone else here was thinking along those lines, either.

[TT-SEA]

By who, if I may ask?

 

Certainly was never my line of thinking, and I don't think anyone else here was thinking along those lines, either.

 

I tried to use some analogs that did not end up with at least a moderate Nina and was shot down numerous times by you... that happened.   You were insistent in the spring and early summer that we were heading towards a strong Nina.   And every wave in the tropics was described as the next coming of the Nina Christ!    I stopped questioning it and just assumed it was happening.  

[TT-SEA]

2004???

 

That's sure to ruffle some feathers!!!

 

 

Yeah... and no consistency among the analogs to this pattern.   Could be a 2007-type situation where we fall off a cliff for good.  

[Phil]

I tried to use some analogs that did not end up with at least a moderate Nina and was shot down numerous times by you... that happened. You were insistent in the spring and early summer that we were heading towards a strong Nina. And every wave in the tropics was described as the next coming of the Nina Christ! I stopped questioning it and just assumed it was happening.

This is complete bullcrap. At no point have I ever forecasted a strong Niña for 2016-17. Never. Not once. Zero.

 

A challenge you to pull up any quotes of me suggesting otherwise.

[Phil]

Could be a 2007-type situation where we fall off a cliff for good.

Oh, really? I sense another "adjustment" incoming!

 

Yes... early September crash is almost inevitable based on August. I don't think it will extend much past the first week of the month though. Maybe another crash at the end of the month.

Troughing will extend into/through mid-September.

Possibly. I am guessing 8/28 - 9/8ish

 

Then another warm period until about the last week of the month.

So, what are your "new" thoughts on September?

[Timmy Supercell]

Cooling was actually stunted here in Klamath Falls (especially in the evening). I had a warmer low than the entire past 10 days this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

This is complete bullcrap. At no point have I ever forecasted a strong Niña for 2016-17. Never. Not once. Zero.

 

A challenge you to pull up any quotes of me suggesting otherwise.

 

 

You might not have forecasted it officially... but  you strongly steered me away from years that did not head towards strong Ninas.     

 

Your flair for dramatic language also misled me when you were talking specifically about each wave that would further strengthen the Nina.     My thought was we were heading towards a near-record Nina.     That is what happens when you use such strong language to make a point.   That is a just a fact... whether you intended that result or not.  

[TT-SEA]

Oh, really? I sense another "adjustment" incoming!

 

 

 

 

So, what are your "new" thoughts on September?

 

 

No idea.   Analogs are all over the place.     Have to just wait and see what happens after this upcoming 10-day period.  

[Phil]

You might not have forecasted it officially... but you strongly steered me away from years that did not head towards strong Ninas.

 

Your flair for dramatic language also misled me when you were talking specifically about each wave that would further strengthen the Nina. My thought was we were heading towards a near-record Nina. That is what happens when you use such strong language to make a point. That is a just a fact... whether you intended that result or not.

What a load of crap. I specifically stated, on numerous occasions, that I was forecasting the monthly ONI anomaly to maximize between -1.1 and -1.3C. That's a low/middle spectrum moderate Niña, silly.

 

Do I need to re-quote my posts? If you misinterpreted anything else, that's your problem, bud, not mine.

[Bryant]

You might not have forecasted it officially... but you strongly steered me away from years that did not head towards strong Ninas.

 

Your flair for dramatic language also misled me when you were talking specifically about each wave that would further strengthen the Nina. My thought was we were heading towards a near-record Nina. That is what happens when you use such strong language to make a point. That is a just a fact... whether you intended that result or not.

So while he didn't forecast a strong Nina, his use of "language" persuaded you to believe a strong Nina was on the horizon. Now, you're blaming him for having it "drilled" in your head when the whole time you were the only one in your head? Take some responsibility dude

[TT-SEA]

So while he didn't forecast a strong Nina, his use of "language" persuaded you to believe a strong Nina was on the horizon. Now, you're blaming him for having it "drilled" in your head when the whole time you were the only one in your head? Take some responsibility dude

 

 

You did it as well.

 

Its my own fault for falling for dramatic posts about the transition.   

 

In reality... it seems like we are heading towards just the cool side of neutral.  

[Phil]

See the quotes below. Actually, I was trying to dissuade Tim from using strong Niña analogs.

 

I'm laughing my arse off right now.

 

Jim and I both love the 1889-90 analog. So its not really tables turned.

 

There are really just 5 years to pick from if we are going from a strong Nino to a strong Nina and doing it rather quickly.

 

1889

1942

1973

1988

1998

 

The best solar match of these is 1889... by far.

 

Not sure what else to say. We also had a warm, dry spring in 1889 which is making it more of a match as 2016 reveals a rather warm, dry spring so far. I have said I would have enjoyed the JAS period in every one of those years. I am not cherry picking 1889. It also had the cooler August and September. And would certainly be a winter that Jim would love.

 

If I was cherry picking a year to be jerk... why would I pick a year that Jim would pay money to repeat? It Is the best ENSO / solar match. That is always my starting point. It is what it is.

 

 

There's no need to restrict your analog base to strong niño -> strong niña transitions. The antecedent ENSO/forcing state will represent neither during the boreal summer.

What you want to best capture, in my opinion, is the timing, structure, and rate of a given ENSO flip. So, you can set looser standards in terms of strength/etc. Also, if you're going to factor in solar (nothing wrong with that) you'll need to factor in the QBO, too, as it's the major conduit through which solar forcing affects the troposphere.

 

I don't think 1889 is a bad analog, but it's very, very old and a number of things have changed since then. So, personally, I'd want more than just one ancient year in my analog pool to feel confident. That's just me, though.

My feeling is that we might end up with a strong Nina and a strong jet stream with very little blocking to deliver cold and snow to the lowlands. And some frustrated cold freaks that got what they wanted from an ENSO perspective but not the arctic air and snow they wanted.

 

My opinion is still unchanged, as I favor a moderate event in the -1.1 to -1.3 ONI range.

[TT-SEA]

Australian ENSO site has a gauge which summarizes all the models.    The average is the cool side of neutral or just at the threshold of a very weak Nina.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/

[Bryant]

You did it as well.

 

Its my own fault for falling for dramatic posts about the transition.

 

In reality... it seems like we are heading towards just the cool side of neutral.

I just don't understand it. You're overly confident when it comes to forecasting, but yet you're blaming the actions of others for influencing you. No one mentioned a strong Nina, ever. We have went through some rapid swings in ENSO, which warranted some excitement in my opinion. These swings were never advertised to equate to a strong Nina however

[TT-SEA]

Went back and looked, Tim is full of it. Actually, I was trying to dissuade Tim from using strong Niña analogs.

 

This speaks for itself:

 

  

 

 

 

  

 

  

 

 

Ahhh... but the reason I was doing that was because you led me to believe that I needed to use strong Nino to Nina years.  

 

Then you found reasons for me to branch out based on other factors to support other years.    

 

I still thought we were heading towards a strong Nina based on your guidance but then you further complicated it on me.  

[TT-SEA]

I just don't understand it. You're overly confident when it comes to forecasting, but yet you're blaming the actions of others for influencing you. No one mentioned a strong Nina, ever. We have went through some rapid swings in ENSO, which warranted some excitement in my opinion. These swings were never advertised to equate to a strong Nina however

 

Yes... my own fault in interpretation.    

[Jesse]

See the quotes below. Actually, I was trying to dissuade Tim from using strong Niña analogs.

 

I'm laughing my arse off right now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pwnage.