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September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Geos

By Geos
in West of the Rockies

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VancouverIslandSouth
VancouverIslandSouth

This has got to be the only place on the internet where a discussion about politics would be more civil and less heated than a discussion about ENSO or 2m temperature anomalies.

Bryant
Bryant

Although all the action is just south of us, that line of heavy precip is holding together nicely. Lightning will light up the room here and there. Started raining hard enough on the way home that I p

MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

The pic is from 1.5 years ago. We went up to crystal mountain. She loved the outdoors

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
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So how are the sun angles looking?

Above average.

 

Might fall below average around the 21st, though it's probably too soon to make definitive proclaimations that far out.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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ECMWF ensemble mean is quite ridgy in the 8-15 day period.    Maybe cool ridgy at times with northerly flow.

 

No crash.    Looks like an Omega block towards the end with a huge trough over the Bering Sea and another massive trough over central and eastern Canada.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Is it so hard to get through the break for 2-3 months a year from active, stormy weather?   Some people act as if it was never going to return... but it always does and usually right about now.   We never have to worry about that.    Are those 8-10 weeks so terrible?     Without sun... you would not appreciate the storms. Without the storms... you would not appreciate the sun.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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Is it so hard to get through the break for 2-3 months a year from active, stormy weather? Some people act as if it was never going to return... but it always does and usually right about now. We never have to worry about that. Are those 8-10 weeks so terrible? Without sun... you would not appreciate the storms. Without the storms... you would not appreciate the sun.

Jesus Christ, Tim.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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Bigtime downpour on the Banfield maybe half an hour ago. Same line of showers. 

 

 

Sun and a few downpours here this afternoon.   The yard looks happier already.  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Signs of the coming cold season are everywhere!

 

 

Not at all from me.   I absolutely love getting an active pattern like this after a hot, dry period.         

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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ECMWF ensemble mean is quite ridgy in the 8-15 day period. Maybe cool ridgy at times with northerly flow.

 

No crash. Looks like an Omega block towards the end with a huge trough over the Bering Sea and another massive trough over central and eastern Canada.

Are we looking at the same run? I see a big ridge retrograding over the GOA and another ridge over eastern North America.

 

Definitely no Bering Sea/GOA trough.

 

D15:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C871673A-4201-49CE-ACB9-2BF9813908F1_zps6u7nqqpc.png

 

D10-15 mean:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A1F79BE6-4DFA-4F8E-A437-69EFF195104A_zpsirlzeviv.png

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Are we looking at the same run? I see a big ridge retrograding over the GOA and another ridge over eastern North America.

 

Definitely no Bering Sea/GOA trough.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Omega block in the 11-15 day period...

 

eps_z500_c_noram_53.png

 

 

eps_z500_c_noram_57.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Omega block in the 11-15 day period...

 

eps_z500_c_noram_53.png

I don't see any "massive trough" over central/eastern North America (I wish!) and certainly there's no trough over the GOA/Bering Sea. Quite the opposite on both counts, noting the height anomalies.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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I don't see any "massive trough" over central/eastern North America (I wish!) and certainly there's no trough over the GOA/Bering Sea. Quite the opposite on both counts, noting the height anomalies.

 

 

Had to host images... see above.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Ah, that explains it. Tim, you posted the EPS control run (the unperturbed ensemble member). I'm referring to the EPS ensemble mean as a whole.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Ah, that explains it. Tim, you posted the EPS control run (the unperturbed ensemble member). I'm referring to the EPS ensemble mean as a whole.

 

 

Ahhhhh.    I am learning.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
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Yeah, you posted the control run. :)

 

I thought something was off with the maps, haha. Was about to clear the cache in my phone.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Can you link me Phil to the right spot.

 

It said EPS on the link I used.

Yeah, the site can be hard to navigate at first.

 

Under EPS, click "+Easy Navigation". There you can compare run to run changes, etc.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7961E177-B435-4A24-843C-E87C0DBBE382_zpspesajmnu.png

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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It wasn't necessary. You know weather weenies like the rain.

 

So do I actually.    That is why I also love the hot weather here.    We always know the storms will come.    Not true in places like SoCal.  

 

Days like today are very enjoyable.    Active with sun and downpours and some wind.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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Got it now... this is what I want to look at.

 

eps_z500_noram_57.png

Once beyond day 10, I'd personally recommend using anomalies in the EPS mean vs absolutes.

 

For me at least, it easier to decipher tendencies that way.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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