January 2014 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

hopefully we can get some consistency on the models

[East Dubzz]

hopefully we can get some consistency on the models

   

[Tom]

So far its the GGEM/GFS that are showing the storm.  Thinking Euro brings it back tonight.

[Geos]

Still very cold on the GFS, but the widespread -20s remain north.

 

[Geos]

EURO is not as impressive as the GFS is. 

 

[East Dubzz]

EURO is not as impressive as the GFS is. 

 

What day is that for? That looks like 6 PM tomorrow night

[Geos]

What day is that for? That looks like 6 PM tomorrow night

 

Made a mistake. 

 

EURO is worse than the GFS - sorry.

 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Made a mistake. 

 

EURO is worse than the GFS - sorry.

 

 

 

Keep in mind I think the Euro has a nearshore bias, I remember it showed slightly colder lows last major cold snap near the lake, which is very questionable I would think.  I will say -20F is probably the limit of what we could see within the UHIs that are Milwaukee or Chicago.  Rural areas could be a different story.

[Geos]

Keep in mind I think the Euro has a nearshore bias, I remember it showed slightly colder lows last major cold snap near the lake, which is very questionable I would think.  I will say -20F is probably the limit of what we could see within the UHIs that are Milwaukee or Chicago.  Rural areas could be a different story.

 

It does. It was about 15° too low that one Monday morning - the 6th.

 

This is looking fun for you!

 

[Geos]

NAM Hi-res seems to closer to reality.

 

[East Dubzz]

NAM Hi-res seems to closer to reality.

 

That's pretty brutal over here!!

[james1976]

i just went outside and walked around the yard. absolutley brutal. its cloudy again and snowing and the wind is like a train. blowing and drifting everywhere

[WBadgersW]

Ever so slowly school cancellations keep coming in for Monday. I'm hoping that my school will cancel tomorrow, Tuesday looks like it will be canceled, but tomorrow could go either way.

[hwkn]

Winter storm warning for most of the Chicago area til 6am according to WBBM TV.

[Geos]

Winter storm warning for most of the Chicago area til 6am according to WBBM TV.

 

That's true. Worse of it will probably be in the next 6 hours.

[Tom]

Hoping we can get subzero by midnight tonight so we can officially tack on a subzero high temp for Monday.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Hoping we can get subzero by midnight tonight so we can officially tack on a subzero high temp for Monday.

 

0% chance that happens, even Milwaukee is expecting 7F at midnight.  It sucks, but them's the breaks.  I despise midnight highs considering they have happened with every arctic outbreak this winter.

[Geos]

Hoping we can get subzero by midnight tonight so we can officially tack on a subzero high temp for Monday.

 

 

0% chance that happens, even Milwaukee is expecting 7F at midnight.  It sucks, but them's the breaks.  I despise midnight highs considering they have happened with every arctic outbreak this winter.

 

Yeah that's not happening. It's still 11° here. 

 

My point forecast is up to 0° for Tuesday now. This might only end up being a 30 hour stretch of below zero temperatures.'

 

Just noticed Racine canceled schools. Local schools are starting to close now.

[Tom]

ORD down to 9F, dropped 8 degrees in the last 90 min or so.  It's going to be close, but prob wont be subzero by midnight.  IMO, if we're going to be this cold, might as well set official high subzero for the day instead of single digits above zero.

[MarcusBeier]

Just wanted to add that tonights surprise snow for SEMI is really over-achieving. Heavy Snow right now IMBY with 500 ft vis, been snowing an hour or so and i have 1.5 already..thinking i might squeek 3-4 out of this. Under no advisory and NOAA said half an inch. Assuming i get 3 inches, that 8 over the three storms

[East Dubzz]

Down to -1 here. Winds still howling stronger than expected, so I think that's keeping temps from taking too big of a dip. I think we should be it drop a little bit once the winds start to slow down a little (currently sustained 30 mph), and even then, all if has to do is drop like 1 degree per hour to reach our predicted low. I still think we get a degree or two colder.

[East Dubzz]

Joe Bastardi thinks the GFS is too warm for Tuesday morning, the the GGEM is too cold (stating the obvious there.).. He likes a blend of the Euro/NAM.

[Money]

EURO looking more interesting for the 31st time period

 

0z

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012700/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_20.png

 

12z

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012612/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_22.png

[Money]

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012700/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_21.png

 

 

Looks very similar to the GGEM.

[Money]

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012700/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_22.png

[DominicR]

EURO looking more interesting for the 31st time period

 

0z

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012700/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_20.png

 

12z

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012612/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_22.png

 

Yeah but now 00z GFS backed off on that.

[DominicR]

Wave might be to flat. Hate when these pacific waves come out like a hose. Usually very weak and fast. Need some amplification or could just be a minor event.

[Money]

Yeah, but euro went from showing nothing/dry to giving chicago 4-6 inches of snow at least

[DominicR]

Yeah, but euro went from showing nothing/dry to giving chicago 4-6 inches of snow at least

 

With lack of amplification I doubt this be a big 6+ winter storm for anyone but I could see this leaving a band of 3-6 inches from Omaha area to Chicago and into northern Ohio.

[Money]

From American

 

ECMWF is onboard.

 

0.50"+ QPF from N. IL to DTW and then YYZ.

[Tom]

00z Euro...glad to see the Euro come on board as expected.  Yes its a flat wave, but doesn't mean there aint room for this to amplify.

 

Very interested to see what this run shows for the Feb 4-5th storm system and if it shows a monster like the 00z GGEM.

[Money]

Looks like it might show a monster.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012700/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_34.png

 

TX/OK border a nice low developing 

[Tom]

Oh MY! 

[Money]

Yup. Would be at least 20+ with everything combined on the euro for the chicago area. 

[Scott26]

GFS has been showing the February 3rd-4th storm also, but it doesn't really amplify and it's more of a OV storm. I don't want to be a downer or anything, but this winter most of our storms have been staying suppressed. Hopefully this amplifies and turns into a big one for all of us here.

[Geos]

Oh MY! 

 

Nice! That would be right on my birthday! Always seems to snow on that day. 

 

Cold this morning, but not brutal yet...

 

Hovering around -1°.

[Scott26]

Staying steady at -5 with a -20 to -25 wind chill here. Pretty brutal, but this is nothing like it will be later.

[Tony]

12z NAM is looking stronger with the Thursday wave

[East Dubzz]

Got down to -10, which is what it is still at, and right on with the NWS prediction. But the winds also stayed stronger than they were predicting, which I still think prevented us from dropping even lower. Nonetheless, wind chills have been -35 or lower, and tonight is gonna be pretty nasty, not to mention all day today!

[Geos]

Staying steady at -5 with a -20 to -25 wind chill here. Pretty brutal, but this is nothing like it will be later.

 

Interesting that you're actually colder there than it is here.

 

Today's high was 7°, so that only leaves tomorrow with the chance of remaining below zero.