January 2014 Observations and Discussion

Tom · January 22, 2014

From Skilling's Blog:

"The greatest purely lake-effect snowstorm in the Chicago area was December 19, 1973, when 5-12 inches of fluffy snow fell in the city, but 15-28 inches buried areas of Lake County, IL north to Green Bay."

Maybe we can have something similar to this sometime this year with all the cold air we have been having and more to come. Just need a perfectly placed High Pressure and a storm system to our storm track to our south to produce NNE fetch down the lake.

Money · January 22, 2014

GFS is north with Sat/Sun clipper. 3-5 from Chicago up to about here.

East Dubzz · January 22, 2014

Wind chill values expected to reach -25 to -35 tonight around here. Dubuque has a Wind Chill Warning, but I do not. I think I should, but I don't make the calls on that.

Tom · January 22, 2014

We should start a new thread for the Friday/Sat Clipper and Sunday Clipper...

Money · January 22, 2014

GFS even colder for next week. Now has -40 to -45 WC on Sunday Night, and -25 low temps for both Sunday and Monday Night.

Tom · January 22, 2014

I started a new thread for the Clippers this weekend...

Money · January 22, 2014

-45 wc both days. Could be looking at two more days of cancelled school if the GFS is right.

Money · January 22, 2014

Tuesday Night is even -20 below with WC of -40 to -45. 3 straight nights of -15 and lower temps and -40 or lower WC for WI/MN/NE IA areas

gosaints · January 22, 2014

if the GFS is right on temps next week shoot me now

East Dubzz · January 22, 2014

if the GFS is right on temps next week shoot me now

That was ridiculously cold.

East Dubzz · January 22, 2014

I noticed the NAM has a low of -13 tonight on the 12z run. Weird, that's colder than predicted, and the NAM has had a very warm bias on the cold outbreaks this year. But it also has the winds a little weaker than expected, which may account for the colder temps.

Money · January 22, 2014

That was just as bad as our last arctic outbreak except the GFS shows this one lasting 3+ days of -10 highs and -40 or lower WC. Then it warms up to 10!!! With 3-4 inches of snow and back to subzero highs/lows

East Dubzz · January 22, 2014

That was just as bad as our last arctic outbreak except the GFS shows this one lasting 3+ days of -10 highs and -40 or lower WC. Then it warms up to 10!!! With 3-4 inches of snow and back to subzero highs/lows

Id be alright with this happening, and then a -PNA taking over and get some SW flow with a possibility for some bigger storms. One more crazy arctic outbreak, then some warm up!

Money · January 22, 2014

Yup shows a couple lows developing at the end. One that went near Chicago, and the other one developing in OK/TX area at the end of the run. Overall, it drops 12-18+ for E MN/WI/NE IA/ and the Chicago area

Snowshoe · January 22, 2014

I got curious this morning about the sustained cold so far this winter. It's really quite impressive and I don't recall a winter in recent memory coming close to this.

Avg. High since Nov.1st = 27.6 (6^ocolder than normal)

Avg. Low since Nov.1st = 10.2 (5^ocolder than normal)

Avg. Temp since Nov.1st = 19.1

November was 4^ocolder than normal

Avg. High since Dec.1st = 20.4 (8^ocolder than normal)

Avg. Low since Dec.1st = 2.8 (7^ocolder than normal)

Avg. Temp since Dec.1st = 11.8

December was 8^ocolder than normal

January is running 8^ocolder than normal

Since December 1st there have been 10 Days above 32 degrees (2 days of 40's and 8 days 33+)

Breakdown of High's

40's - 2 days ( 42 on 12/28/13)

30's - 15

20's - 9

10's - 15

0's - 10

Subzero - 1 day (-14 on 1/6/14)

Pretty impressive stretch of cold weather.

Jaycee · January 22, 2014

You guys suck you're already having your 3rd snowiest season on record ever! Stop hogging all of it.

Sciascia · January 22, 2014

Yup shows a couple lows developing at the end. One that went near Chicago, and the other one developing in OK/TX area at the end of the run. Overall, it drops 12-18+ for E MN/WI/NE IA/ and the Chicago area

For Chicago area, nearly a foot of that is down by the end of January. Which, for record keeping purposes, would be fun to watch. We're 12.8 inches away from tying the snowiest January ever recorded.

gosaints · January 22, 2014

Wow both the GFS and the Nam take Rochester to 21 below tonight.

Tom · January 22, 2014

Nebraska will have their fair share of storms starting in February. The 500mb pattern shaping up next month is prime for coast to coast storm systems and with plenty cold air entrenched.

East Dubzz · January 22, 2014

GFS shows a low of -15 here tonight, and the NAM about the same, with a winds around 15mph, so wind chill of about -35

Tom · January 22, 2014

12z GGEM is just ridiculously cold for Monday night...showing -30 to -35F in MN/IA/IL...

Money · January 22, 2014

How does it look for Sunday Night and Tuesday Night?

Money · January 22, 2014

12z GFS temps for here:

140127/0300Z 111 32013KT -7.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 11:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 0| 0| 0
140127/0600Z 114 31013KT -13.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140127/0900Z 117 30012KT -16.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140127/1200Z 120 30012KT -20.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140127/1500Z 123 29010KT -21.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140127/1800Z 126 29011KT -14.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140127/2100Z 129 28011KT -13.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140128/0000Z 132 28010KT -19.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140128/0300Z 135 29009KT -22.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140128/0600Z 138 28008KT -24.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140128/0900Z 141 28008KT -24.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140128/1200Z 144 28008KT -25.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140128/1500Z 147 28007KT -22.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140128/1800Z 150 28008KT -13.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140128/2100Z 153 27009KT -11.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140129/0000Z 156 28009KT -17.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140129/0300Z 159 28008KT -19.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140129/0600Z 162 28008KT -21.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140129/0900Z 165 27008KT -22.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140129/1200Z 168 27008KT -23.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140129/1500Z 171 25007KT -21.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140129/1800Z 174 23009KT -12.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140129/2100Z 177 21009KT -9.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140130/0000Z 180 19009KT -14.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

69 hours below zero and that's the end of what it shows according to Bufkit.

james1976 · January 22, 2014

the radio just got interrupted with a special weather statement for a wind chill warning through tomorrow and a WWA for today from blowing snow. Talking -40 wind chill tonight. wow. and next week looks way cold...and maybe some snow right in between for this weekend!

Tom · January 22, 2014

Money, GGEM is also cold Sunday and Tuesday night, not as bad but still brutal...maybe knock down 10-15 degrees from the Monday night.

Money · January 22, 2014

Chicago according to 12z GFS (5.6 for the Clipper)

140126/1200Z 96 18008KT 7.6F SNOW 25:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 25:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140126/1500Z 99 13010KT 13.0F SNOW 20:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.159 20:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0
140126/1800Z 102 04009KT 19.1F SNOW 14:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.086 18:1| 4.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0
140126/2100Z 105 36017KT 19.3F SNOW 23:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 19:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0
140127/0000Z 108 32020KT 4.9F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 18:1| 5.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140127/0300Z 111 31018KT 0.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 18:1| 5.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 0| 0| 0
140127/0600Z 114 31016KT -6.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 18:1| 5.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 0| 0| 0
140127/0900Z 117 31016KT -12.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140127/1200Z 120 31015KT -17.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140127/1500Z 123 30014KT -17.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140127/1800Z 126 30014KT -13.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140127/2100Z 129 29013KT -12.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140128/0000Z 132 29012KT -16.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140128/0300Z 135 29011KT -19.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140128/0600Z 138 29010KT -20.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140128/0900Z 141 29010KT -21.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140128/1200Z 144 29009KT -22.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140128/1500Z 147 28010KT -19.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140128/1800Z 150 28010KT -12.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140128/2100Z 153 29009KT -10.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140129/0000Z 156 29009KT -15.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140129/0300Z 159 29009KT -17.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140129/0600Z 162 28009KT -18.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140129/0900Z 165 28009KT -19.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140129/1200Z 168 28009KT -19.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140129/1500Z 171 26008KT -15.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140129/1800Z 174 24009KT -7.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140129/2100Z 177 21009KT -2.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140130/0000Z 180 19010KT -4.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
============================================================================================================================

Geos · January 22, 2014

:lol: ^

Models are over doing the cold imo. -10°, sure, but -20° very unlikely this far south.

Tonight is supposed to be 0° now with clouds. Snow has moved out and temperatures are coming up.

gosaints · January 22, 2014

Geos, what is your reasoning behind your thinking. My point is down to -15 tonight

gosaints · January 22, 2014

And it will be short lived winds have picked up here and its starting to drop again

East Dubzz · January 22, 2014

11 degrees in Dubuque. Shouldn't be too long until the temps start to drop.

East Dubzz · January 22, 2014

I guess I see they did up the high for today, but the low is still predicted to be the same.

Money · January 22, 2014

Difference between 0z euro and 12z euro in regards to the cold:

12z:

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012212/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_26.png

0z:

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012200/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_28.png

Money · January 22, 2014

EURO is about 66-72 hours below 0 for IL/WI/MN

Tom · January 22, 2014

12z Euro Monday and Tuesday night temps....

Niko · January 22, 2014

I have a quick question for anyone that can answer my question: I noticed today that Lake Superior is not frozen and Lake Erie is frozen. So, why is Lake Superior not frozen?

gosaints · January 22, 2014

lake eire is relatively shallow less conduction from the water below to keep it from freezing

Tom · January 22, 2014

Yup, Lake Superior is a very deep lake carved out of ancient glaziers. Meanwhile, Lake Erie's average depth is 62ft and about 212 max depth. Lake Superior's avg depth is 82ft and max is 1,332ft. Lot more water by volume.

gosaints · January 22, 2014

SREF mean gets it to -19 here tomorrow morning

East Dubzz · January 22, 2014

SREF mean gets it to -19 here tomorrow morning

It seems as if the models have tended a bit cooler for tonight, which is actually the opposite of what typically happens.

gosaints · January 22, 2014

It seems as if the models have tended a bit cooler for tonight, which is actually the opposite of what typically happens.

This isnt true models dont generally trend warmer. With the last cold shot they overdid the cold a bit. Not much in my area. Probably had to do with cloud cover however. There are plenty of times when models are not agressive enough with cold. We also have a much larger snow pack now.

January 2014 Observations and Discussion

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