January 2014 Observations and Discussion

[East Dubzz]

This isnt true models dont generally trend warmer.  With the last cold shot they overdid the cold a bit.  Not much in my area. Probably had to do with cloud cover however.  There are plenty of times when models are not agressive enough with cold.  We also have a much larger snow pack now.

True. They did warm a little bit for my area. I know the GFS did at least, nothing major, but did bump it up a few degrees. And the NAM was wayyy warm last time, like 10 degrees or more too warm. But this time it's actually several degrees colder than forecasted. I'm thinking the forecasted -10 here seems accurate, but wouldn't be surprised to see it be a few degrees cooler.

[tim the weatherman]

i heard that chicago is going to get a powerhouse co low for next weekend that it could be like the ground hog day blizzard that hit on feb 2 2011 and i was wondering that if it is still going to hit chicago mext

weekend

[Geos]

Geos, what is your reasoning behind your thinking. My point is down to -15 tonight

 

Clouds. Last night it got cloudy and did not reach the expected low. 

 

And less snow cover too.

[gosaints]

Maybe there GEOS. Much higher cover now and less clouds. Already approaching WC warning criteria here now

[Geos]

Wind helps keep temps up too. Now the forecast is for -2° tonight.

Definitely more clouds here than up in SE MN.

 

PNA started its drop: 1.21 to 1.18

AO started its rise: -1.99 to -1.55

[gosaints]

Its gonna be brutal again next week GEOS. Chances are you build up your snowpack before then

[Tom]

I'm getting hit by a rather heavy snow shower ATM...visibility about 3/4 mile.

 

Edit: Now its pouring tiny flakes...1/2 mile visibility!

[East Dubzz]

Down to 4 in Dubuque already, wind chill of -20!

[Tom]

18z GFS keeps it subzero for 72 hours in N IL...are you kidding me??? LOL  Brrrrrr....Jan 1985 analog is looking good.

[james1976]

i heard that chicago is going to get a powerhouse co low for next weekend that it could be like the ground hog day blizzard that hit on feb 2 2011 and i was wondering that if it is still going to hit chicago mext

weekend

lol....wouldnt surprise me!!!

[james1976]

its been a brutal day here. showshowers, way windy, blowing snow, -1 already.

[gosaints]

-1 and -28 here

[The Snowman]

For those interested: made a new blog post on model discrepancies in the medium/long range and what we can expect after all this cold moves out to round out January.

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/01/long-range-lookout-model-confusion.html

[FV-Mike]

LOT went with a WWA. most for the cold and drifting snow

[East Dubzz]

Just noticed I got upgraded to a Wind Chill warning. SREF is really cold, as well as 18z GFS! Even the NAM goes below the forecasted temps.

[Niko]

Thanks gosaints and Tom. Makes sense now.

[gosaints]

-6 ahead of schedule

[East Dubzz]

-6 ahead of schedule

Yeah -1 here already with wind chill -24. And the coldest temps still quite a ways away.

[East Dubzz]

It's brutal out already! Wow, can barely stand out there for half a minute

[Geos]

Currently 0° here. Right on track.

[East Dubzz]

DVN said it was a degree or two colder than expected. Lowered minimum temps to -12 tonight, wind chills around -35. Currently -5 with a wind chill of -29. Crazy to think that the coldest is still 7-9 hours away!

[Geos]

Only -3° here this morning. 0° currently with LES showers moving in.

[gosaints]

-16 last hour

[Niko]

-9.6. D**n..its a cold winter man!

[DominicR]

Phil Swartz was saying about temps getting below -20 early next week at night with temps below zero Mon and Tuesday  as highs and we will prob have fresh snow cover from weekend clippers. PV looks to once again drop far enough south Ontario to give us another possibly record cold in Upper GL.

[gosaints]

-17

[Tom]

00z Euro indicating a stormier pattern for the Midwest/GL for the next 1-2 weeks...

 

 

 

[gosaints]

Cant wait for this pattern to die

[East Dubzz]

Wow, the 00z Euro was freaking cold...Has -14 Monday morning, -25 Tuesday morning, and -14 again Wednesday morning. 

[Tony]

Thats a healthy plume over the center of the lake. if only it can make it inland on the western shores

[East Dubzz]

I had no idea that some of the models (GFS and Euro) were showing temps that cold next week! Both models had temps below -10 Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday morning!

[Tony]

^

[Geos]

Cant wait for this pattern to die

 

+100

 

Thats a healthy plume over the center of the lake. if only it can make it inland on the western shores

 

Looks to just hang out there. 

 

I had no idea that some of the models (GFS and Euro) were showing temps that cold next week! Both models had temps below -10 Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday morning!

 

I'm trying to my best to ignore it and just focus on the snow aspect of things.

 

@ Nikos: Impressive that lower Michigan got colder than it did here.

[gosaints]

Its just wash rinse repeat. GFSx has -22 Monday morning with wind speed of 26.  Not gonna happen but that sucks

[Geos]

GFS looks more tolerable 174-336 hr.

[MKEstorm]

00z Euro indicating a stormier pattern for the Midwest/GL for the next 1-2 weeks...

 

GFS keeps showing something stormy for around February 4/5 time frame. This is something to keep an eye on!

[tim the weatherman]

i still think that next weekend could have a blizzard fromok to mi if we get that co low that tom was mentioning.

[Money]

18z GFS showing -25 temps for lows and -45 to -50 WC across all of WI and N. IL on Monday Night/Tues Morning

[Money]

-40 WC Mon Morning

-50 WC Tues Morning

 

Ugh. Make it stop.

[Tom]

Mike Caplan's 7-day forecast has it subzero from Sunday night thru Wednesday Morning, -17 Monday night.  Seems like there will be more winds involved than what the models were showing a couple days ago as PV is farther south and west.