January 2014 Observations and Discussion

[East Dubzz]

GFS for OSH (temps at 0z each day)

 

1/20: 12.1

1/21: -6.6

1/22: -3.7

1/23: 5.3

1/24: 0.4

 

then the real cold comes after that

Oshkosh, Wisconsin, right? Little off topic here, I apologize, but did you follow their football team at all?

[Money]

Yeah, no I don't. Why?

 

And 0z euro is cold for next week

[Geos]

Still looking to go positive.

 

 

AO looks to dip though.

 

 

Need to keep the +NAO to avoid the worse cold scenario.

[Tom]

Signs of that big storm starting to show up on the GFS and taking a track farther north.  Wondering how much the cold to the north will have an effect on the storm track down the road. 

[Geos]

GFS takes away the cold starting the 28th. No PV coming down that week anymore. Looks like Pacific air wins over.

[Tom]

That ain't happening, typical GFS feedback problems.  I don't see that ridge in northern Pacific breaking down and with AO/NAO showing blocking those are all cold signals.

[East Dubzz]

That ain't happening, typical GFS feedback problems. I don't see that ridge in northern Pacific breaking down and with AO/NAO showing blocking those are all cold signals.

AO/NAO are both negative and it shows those warm of temps?? I saw the image Geos posted. I mean those wouldn't necessarily mean PV Part 2, but yeah, I doubt that ridge breaks and with those negative, I doubt we see that warm. Could be warm, who knows, but I doubt that warm!!

[Geos]

Have to watch what the EURO shows in a little while.

[Geos]

Next Wednesday night off the EURO.

 

[Tom]

00z GFS brought the arctic attack into eastern lakes next weekend but Euro bringing it down through the northern Plains.  Huge difference...

 

 

[Geos]

27th and beyond the pattern rearranges over the Pacific. GOA low now -

 

 

[Tom]

D**n, 00z Euro brings sub zero cold from 00z Sunday thru 12z Monday...could rival the cold we saw Jan 3-6...gets down to the upper 10's below zero both nights.

[Tom]

00z Euro showing blocking in the AO/NAO by Day 10 so that should still keep it cold in Eastern half of the U.S.

 

[Geos]

00z Euro showing blocking in the AO/NAO by Day 10 so that should still keep it cold in Eastern half of the U.S.

 

We loose the -EPO though.

[gosaints]

Shoot me in the face if this verifies.

[LincWeath]

00z Euro showing blocking in the AO/NAO by Day 10 so that should still keep it cold in Eastern half of the U.S.

Would the blocking bring snow to Nebraska Tom? I thought I was reading on one of Garys blog the other day that blocking would be a good thing. Is this correct or was I reading that wrong?

[Tom]

Blocking would bring a favorable storm track through the Plains, especially with the -AO.  Depending on how strong the blocking is, that will determine storm track.  Last winter when the AO tanked storms kept pounding the Plains but I don't remember if in fact NE got in on the game.

[Tom]

Euro/GGEM showing a building snow cover in the region...the Lake Effect Snow Machine is going to pile up on the snow in FEET near the Great Lakes.

 

 

[Tony]

I have been looking at the Nam the past few runs and it shows LE for us early next week. Any thoughts on this guys?

[Tom]

Ya, I've been watching that since a few days ago and some of the local mets been saying that we may get a little LES Monday.

[Geos]

Wouldn't mind some LES, as long as if it means it will be warmer that day! haha

[DominicR]

Pretty nasty early next week with cold snap again...

 

 

[East Dubzz]

Wow 00z GFS was showing signs of warmness long range... +AO/NAO and -PNA. Pretty decent spikes in all of them too. I'd be alright with it being more mild if we could get some nice storms out of them. Like the AO/NAO go neutral or around there so there could maybe be some cold air up north, and then a -PNA, and maybe a cutter or hooker, or CO Low could sweep through.

[NEJeremy]

Wow 00z GFS was showing signs of warmness long range... +AO/NAO and -PNA. Pretty decent spikes in all of them too. I'd be alright with it being more mild if we could get some nice storms out of them. Like the AO/NAO go neutral or around there so there could maybe be some cold air up north, and then a -PNA, and maybe a cutter or hooker, or CO Low could sweep through.

Yeah I noticed that too. We'll probably finally get our storm here in Nebraska and it will be all rain or the majority will fall as rain before we get a little backside snow!

[Geos]

Wow 00z GFS was showing signs of warmness long range... +AO/NAO and -PNA. Pretty decent spikes in all of them too. I'd be alright with it being more mild if we could get some nice storms out of them. Like the AO/NAO go neutral or around there so there could maybe be some cold air up north, and then a -PNA, and maybe a cutter or hooker, or CO Low could sweep through.

 

I think we are looking at an end of the current pattern and a reconfiguration of the jet stream coming up. Given the teleconnections, I think the PV might come down, but this area will be grazed by it and it will progress more towards the Northeast.

I see a near normal stretch of temperatures to close out January.

[East Dubzz]

I think we are looking at an end of the current pattern and a reconfiguration of the jet stream coming up. Given the teleconnections, I think the PV might come down, but this area will be grazed by it and it will progress more towards the Northeast.

I see a near normal stretch of temperatures to close out January.

It will be cold this week, but nothing like what we saw last time. However, after that, I agree with you that things look like they're really going to change. Teleconnections, especially from the GFS and GEFS, support this. Looks like it could be quite mild, actually. GFS continues to show a decently strong spike on the AO/NAO.

[Tom]

12z NAM looking pretty good this Wed/Thu for the Great Lakes Region....could drop another few inches if that Clipper can track farther South.

 

[Tom]

12z Euro showing some LES in eastern Cook county...need to see how this lake effect band unfolds Monday.  Could be some surprise snow for Cook.

 

[East Dubzz]

Just saw the CFS in the PNW thread and it looks like it's still showing below normal temperatures for the Midwest and GL regions.

[Geos]

12z GFS with the last few days of the month.

 

 

EURO shoves the PV core off to our east.

 

[East Dubzz]

End of the Euro looked like it was showing more of a zonal flow with that strong West Coast ridge finally breaking down.

[Geos]

End of the Euro looked like it was showing more of a zonal flow with that strong West Coast ridge finally breaking down.

 

Definitely. It is swaying towards the GFS. Not as cold as the GFS, but more towards seasonable. I will take it!

 

[East Dubzz]

Why I think at least the beginning of February will be mild and a pattern change may be taking place:

 

http://www.pulsatingweather.com/2/post/2014/01/above-average-temps-to-start-february.html

[Geos]

Why I think at least the beginning of February will be mild and a pattern change may be taking place:

 

http://www.pulsatingweather.com/2/post/2014/01/above-average-temps-to-start-february.html

 

I agree with that analysis. Everything changes between the 24-28th. Wouldn't be surprised to see 50° during that break.

[bud2380]

Gfs has shown a huge storm at the end of the month two runs in a row. Still in fantasy land though. Until then it looks like clipper after clipper after clipper. Maybe one of them will come in a bit stronger

[Geos]

Temperature at the high for the day now; 32.7°. Little bit of dripping occurring. 

[Tom]

00z GFS showing a good LES signature into NE IL...there may be a 1-2 hour period of brief heavy snow for Cook/Lake counties Monday night once the arctic front passes through.

 

 

 

[Tom]

00z RGEM now showing it better within range...showing a plume into Cook county...

 

 

[Tom]

LOT may start increasing LES in Cook/Lake counties for tonight's disco...

[Geos]

Was not expecting to see LES on the models for Cook County tomorrow.

 

 

All the way up to 35° currently.