October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

74/56 instead of 79/58 would be big news indeed.

 

We may even kick the 62 degree dewpoint can down the road a little further. Sticky spring awaits.

 

Trying to keep me from jinxing it? 

[TT-SEA]

Cantore is in Fort Pierce... bet he wishes he picked a spot farther north.    Storm is passing him by.

[Jesse]

Coldest month this fall!

 

Relative to average? Could be! The month is but young...

[Jesse]

Tonight's rainfall appears to be in the process of disappointing. Only 0.10" so far, with our accumulation window probably ending around 6-7am.

 

Yeah, radar is looking a lot more scattered than I was anticipating at this point.

[BLI snowman]

Trying to keep me from jinxing it? 

 

We are going to mildly cruise past our average first freeze date either way 

[GHweatherChris]

Well... then go ahead and assume some secret agenda. I can't help you there. I pretty much just say what I am thinking. I have been trying to be nicer in my approach but that is worse I guess.

No assumption needed.

 

You trying to be nicer comes across as more forced or fake than genuine, that is all.

 

Have a good night Tim.

[Jesse]

We are going to mildly cruise past our average first freeze date either way 

 

Oh Justin.

[TT-SEA]

No assumption needed.

 

You trying to be nicer comes across as more forced or fake than genuine, that is all.

 

Have a good night Tim.

 

 

Sorry about that.   Its not fake.   

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, radar is looking a lot more scattered than I was anticipating at this point.

 

Probably still see a quick downpour in the early morning, but all in all a pretty uneventful storm down this way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jacksonville, Florida is only 16 feet above sea level. They are totally screwed when the snow level is 500'!

[TT-SEA]

WeatherBell running VERY slowly tonight... they need to up their server power in big events.

[TT-SEA]

Matthew never makes landfall on the 00Z ECMWF.

[Bryant]

Then tell me what I am hiding.

You're not hiding anything, you're just lying to yourself

[snow_wizard]

Gust to 59 at Forks in the past hour.  That will probably beat a lot of places in Florida.  Fall has definitely arrived.

 

Pretty interesting how it suddenly appears there will be a window of opportunity for clear / chilly nights next week now.  With that northern branch becoming stronger on each run we might manage some frost in places.

[Jesse]

You're not hiding anything, you're just lying to yourself

Nope. I think it is much more likely that you, me, Matt, Chris, Phil, Winterdog, Flatiron, Jim and others are all mistaking. People who have all known Tim for years. That seems far more plausible.

[TT-SEA]

You're not hiding anything, you're just lying to yourself

 

About what?  

[Jesse]

Gust to 59 at Forks in the past hour. That will probably beat a lot of places in Florida. Fall has definitely arrived.

 

Pretty interesting how it suddenly appears there will be a window of opportunity for clear / chilly nights next week now. With that northern branch becoming stronger on each run we might manage some frost in places.

I love it! Fantastic ensemble support too. In fact there looks to be room for things to trend even a little cooler for early next week.

[TT-SEA]

Gust to 59 at Forks in the past hour.  That will probably beat a lot of places in Florida.  Fall has definitely arrived.

 

Pretty interesting how it suddenly appears there will be a window of opportunity for clear / chilly nights next week now.  With that northern branch becoming stronger on each run we might manage some frost in places.

 

 

Rains all weekend for us.... huge changes even from the 12Z runs.    Window is disappointingly small... raining again by Wednesday on the 00Z ECMWF.   I think Monday night is the best shot.    I personally would like a longer window of dry.

[snow_wizard]

Monday looks like an amazing day for the Seattle area.  Clearing skies with north winds and highs in the upper 50s and lows in the low to mid 40s for SEA.  The ensemble mean for the next two weeks is notably cooler than earlier runs also.

[Phil]

About what?

About the fact that your ulterior motive has always been to upset Jim, Jesse, and anyone who enjoys colder than average weather.

 

At least that's what it looks like to me. Almost like you're being intentionally transparent so everyone knows it while giving yourself enough room to wiggle away in the process, driving your critics over the edge of sanity while you sit back and laugh.

 

That about right?

[stuffradio]

Storm watch! Just had to go down and move the garbage can to a less wind prone spot, the wind knocked it over and started blowing it up the driveway. Could be a few cans knocked over before the garbage pickup tomorrow morning. Definitely some strong gusts of wind out there now and even a bit of rain mixed in

You're not supposed to put it out until the morning, That's what I do because of the bears.

[Deweydog]

You're not supposed to put it out until the morning, That's what I do because of the bears.

You know bears can smell menstruation...

[TT-SEA]

About the fact that your ulterior motive has always been to upset Jim, Jesse, and anyone who enjoys colder than average weather.

 

At least that's what it looks like to me. Almost like you're being intentionally transparent so everyone knows it while giving yourself enough room to wiggle away in the process.

 

 

Its not an ulterior motive.  And Jim goes on his own emotional roller coasters.   He is not following my lead.   He knows what he like and does not like and what is happening.    

 

How can I be down on a guy who readily admits he hates living here and he is trapped?   Things have changed over the years.  

 

I still enjoy pointing out overly-optimistic outlooks.   But I have no anger or hidden agenda.     I would be quite happy if Jim was right on from now until March.  But I am a pessimist until it happens.    

[TT-SEA]

That is one crazy pattern on the 00Z ECMWF.

 

Active October is an understatement.   

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF has a 970ish low making landfall in Vancouver Island next Friday.   

[Phil]

That monster -NAO juxtaposed over a high wavenumber regime just locks the GOA trough in place on the 00z ECMWF. Until wavelengths increase after October 20th, that GOA vortex isn't going anywhere.

 

The GOA vortex should bifurcate and/or retrograde between October 20th and October 25th, IMO. Once this happens, it'll set the stage for a trend towards NPAC blocking in November.

[TT-SEA]

That monster -NAO juxtaposed over a high wavenumber regime just locks the GOA trough in place on the 00z ECMWF. Until wavelengths increase after October 20th, that GOA vortex isn't going anywhere.

 

The GOA vortex should bifurcate and/or retrograde between October 20th and October 25th, IMO. Once this happens, it'll set the stage for a trend towards NPAC blocking in November.

 

 

Its a beast...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016100700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

[TT-SEA]

Its like an ongoing sports rivalry on here. People have their teams and there is lots of trash talking and cheering for your team. Dynasties come and go. And we don't control any of it.

 

I switch teams in the winter though.

[Jesse]

Its like an ongoing sports rivalry on here. People have their teams and there is lots of trash talking and cheering for your team. Dynasties come and go. And we don't control any of it.

 

I switch teams in the winter though.

I really hope they come to their senses and ban you eventually.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF advertises a very strong surface low just off the WA coast on day 7.  Around 970mb it appears.

[TT-SEA]

I really hope they come to their senses and ban you eventually.

 

You have been banned much more recently.     That is telling.  

 

You are much more angry than me.   I have no ill feelings towards anyone.   

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF advertises a very strong surface low just off the WA coast on day 7.  Around 970mb it appears.

 

 

Did you get WeatherBell now?   I just posted that above.    My wife questioned the charge.   I told her its fine.  

 

Do you have to justify paying for weather data?    Its a hard sell here!

[Deweydog]

Strong surface low on the Euro at day seven.

[snow_wizard]

Did you get WeatherBell now?   I just posted that above.    My wife questioned the charge.   I told her its fine.  

 

Do you have to justify paying for weather data?    Its a hard sell here!

 

I will probably renew my subscription later this month.  I can really only justify paying for it during the cold season.

[snow_wizard]

Strong surface low on the Euro at day seven.

 

Well advertised now.

[Deweydog]

I really hope they come to their senses and ban you eventually.

You guys are two peas in a pod. If he goes you'll probably be on your way to the parking garage with him. Are you willing to make the ultimate sacrifice??? It's gut check time!!!

[snow_wizard]

That monster -NAO juxtaposed over a high wavenumber regime just locks the GOA trough in place on the 00z ECMWF. Until wavelengths increase after October 20th, that GOA vortex isn't going anywhere.

 

The GOA vortex should bifurcate and/or retrograde between October 20th and October 25th, IMO. Once this happens, it'll set the stage for a trend towards NPAC blocking in November.

 

No doubt the whole things reeks of a sharp reversal when it happens.  Could be a season of 500mb acrobatics.

[BLI snowman]

Its a beast...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016100700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

 

Gotta be a ton of rain for us with that one.

[TT-SEA]

No doubt the whole things reeks of a sharp reversal when it happens.  Could be a season of 500mb acrobatics.

 

 

I sure hope there is a 2003-type payoff... it rained on only 3 days from 10/24-11/15 here that year.  Of course there was a flood event when the rain started up again.   I just don't see any hint of a reversal yet.   

[Deweydog]

No doubt the whole things reeks of a sharp reversal when it happens. Could be a season of 500mb acrobatics.

Definitely has the feel of being a fairly dynamic period coming up.