Timmy Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 I'm liking the 00z gfs for next weekend (viewing from 500mb anomaly). Looks cooler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 First snow of the season in Minnesota... https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherChannel/videos/10154822279005921/ Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Brutal cold moves into Alaska, Yukon around and just after day 10http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111900/gfs_T850_ak_41.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111900/gfs_T850_ak_44.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Gfs gets pretty interesting after day 8-9. Looks pretty close to a snow setup for northern Washington/ SW BC. Hints of a Kona low trying to establish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 The 00z is continued nina pattern through most of it. Would be epic for the cascades Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 First run with a solid ridge over western Alaska. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Ridge is demolished after day 12..... strong jet ensues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 The 00z is continued nina pattern through most of it. Would be epic for the cascadesYeah. Jet is suppressed. Unbelievable mountain snow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 First snow of the season in Minnesota... https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherChannel/videos/10154822279005921/I'm sweating with nostalgia. The sound of the wind roaring through bare trees is my favorite aspect of blizzards. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 I'm sweating with nostalgia. The sound of the wind roaring through bare trees is my favorite aspect of blizzards.I had thunder snow in 2008. The nostalgia! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 I had thunder snow in 2008. The nostalgia!As did I. Pretty cool to experience. Central Oregon has some diverse weather from time to time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Just look at those nice chilly dogs at hour ~280 onwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Dramatic pattern change coming.... Much colder runs on the way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Dramatic pattern change coming.... Much colder runs on the way LOVE the idea of a suppressed jet. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Call it a hunch. I have nothing to lose, and if by some chance I'm right it makes it that much sweeter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Call it a hunch. I have nothing to lose, and if by some chance I'm right it makes it that much sweeter.The height rises into the Aleutians looks more pronounced and longer lasting on tonight ensemble. It's still out in Lala land but it's intriguing for now. If nothing else, it's probably a good sign for the rest of the winter if we can bust up the NPAC low for a while. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 The height rises into the Aleutians looks more pronounced and longer lasting on tonight ensemble. It's still out in Lala land but it's intriguing for now. If nothing else, it's probably a good sign for the rest of the winter if we can bust up the NPAC low for a while.Agreed. Positive anomaly throughout along 160/165 W is actually a huge improvement in the overall 500mb pattern.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Euro is coming in now. I can hardly contain my excitement........crucial run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Agreed. Positive anomaly throughout along 160/165 W is actually a huge improvement in the overall 500mb pattern..That -NAO signal is quite strong still unfortunately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 That -NAO signal is quite strong still unfortunately.Unfortunately? A Hudson Bay/Greenland vortex destructively interferes with the -PNA cell. This is exactly why the last few winters were failures in the west. Without off-domain supplementation, obtaining sufficient meridional transport across NW North America becomes much more difficult. Ideally, I'd like to see a west-based +WPO/-EPO/-NAO. The elongated, equatorward-biased Aleutian ridge assists in developing a +EPO/strong PV regime, which can be very difficult to break especially towards mid/late winter in a -ENSO state. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Unfortunately? A Hudson Bay/Greenland vortex destructively interferes with the -PNA cell. This is exactly why the last few winters were failures in the west. Without off-domain supplementation, obtaining sufficient meridional transport across NW North America becomes much more difficult. Ideally, I'd like to see a west-based +WPO/-EPO/-NAO. The elongated, equatorward-biased Aleutian ridge assists in developing a +EPO/strong PV regime, which can be very difficult to break especially towards mid/late winter in a -ENSO state.What do you think about the GFS run? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 What do you think about the GFS run?Haven't looked at it yet. One second. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 What do you think about the GFS run?I guess it depends on what kind of pattern progression you'd prefer and/or enjoy over the next month. The 00z GFS looks like a classically broad, zonal -PNA/Aleutian ridge pattern to me. While that's a nice pattern if you enjoy modestly chilly Pacific air and general troughing/storminess, in the long run it's a pattern that is detrimental for poleward mass/momentum transport and usually trends into a +EPO/GOA vortex regime, while also building a stronger NW Atlantic and/or Canadian ridge which prevents a SE ridge from developing and/or holding. It's not so much that the pattern is bad..it's not. Rather, it's the consequence the pattern has on the waveguide resonances that can be problematic, IMO. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 From the 00z GFS, can kinda see why the NAO block is important given the poor NPAC state. If you reverse the NAO sign, we get a pattern similar to 2014/15 and even last winter to some extent. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Now here's an aggregate of the recent "pedestrian" neutral/negative ENSO winters, which were were mostly zonal and lacked Arctic air. Almost opposite. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/D61B6D6F-1511-479A-B067-11B34D67E4BB_zpsge2zfng8.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 That -NAO signal is quite strong still unfortunately. 1968-69 says you might want to reconsider your position on the NAO. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 From the 00z GFS, can kinda see why the NAO block is important given the poor NPAC state. If you reverse the NAO sign, we get a pattern similar to 2014/15 and even last winter to some extent. 1968/12/17 is a really interesting analog! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 At least 3 consecutive runs that show 850s dropping to -6 or below over SEA. Things are starting to get interesting! EDIT: It appears the GFS ensemble control model dropped to -8 on the latest run. A few ensemble members getting into snow territory now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 (cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1445-mid-fall-2016-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/ 2 Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 The 00z GFS begins to restrengthen the PV later in the run, which appears to be a direct consequence of the broad Aleutian ridge which shuts down vertical wave activity fluxes from the troposphere into the stratosphere through the NPAC. This would make it difficult to leave the broad Hadley Cell regime in the long run, hence reduce the chances of favorable NPAC blocking and significant winter weather. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 What world did I just walk into? Knock it off. I will put anyone on mod preview if you do things like this. This is toxic behviour, I don't care if it's richard or phil doing attacking. I will not treat you lightly. Keep it in PM or don't bother posting here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 What world did I just walk into? Knock it off. I will put anyone on mod preview if you do things like this. This is toxic behviour, I don't care if it's richard or phil doing attacking. I will not treat you lightly. Keep it in PM or don't bother posting here.Did I miss something? Posts must have been deleted.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Did I miss something? Posts must have been deleted.... You could say that lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 At least 3 consecutive runs that show 850s dropping to -6 or below over SEA. Things are starting to get interesting! EDIT: It appears the GFS ensemble control model dropped to -8 on the latest run. A few ensemble members getting into snow territory now.For day 8-10 timeframe ? Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 6z pretty decent and dangling a few carrots(and celery) Day 8-14 500mb Composite Analog shows definite improvementhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_06gfs814.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Wow. I go to bed and all hell breaks loose?' What did I miss? ... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Wow. I go to bed and all hell breaks loose?' What did I miss? ...Mann showed up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Sources just told me the this 12z run will be the most important of the entire winter season. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Mann showed upOh... must have been Mann and Phil hostility Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 Glad I missed whatever happened. I agree that the upcoming pattern is not a great one... I'd rather arctic outflow from the east than cool, modified ocean air from the northwest. However, it's an improvement and I'm not going to complain. I will agree with Phil in that we shouldn't be rooting for a NAO reversal until the Pacific gets its act together. It would result in a 14-15 winter and who wants that. It is nice to see a shift to a more Nina-looking pattern. A step in the right direction, but a far cry from peeing-my-pants-excited. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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