November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[van city]

No. Have you?

 

IbrChris, Westcoastexpat?

No, Bastardi did.

 

I like the European weeklies. December to remember if you like winter weather on the way! Once the block locks, the weather rocks

[Bryant]

The ECMWF shows one patch of lowland snow in the next 10 days... between Mt Vernon and Bellingham. Bryant is going to discover that he lives in a small area that is very favorable for snow.

Hey, a post from you that put a smile on my face! All joking aside, I'm still not convinced even though multiple members have agreed it should be a good spot overall. I suppose the past few years have just turned me into a negative nancy

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No, Bastardi did.

 

I like the European weeklies. December to remember if you like winter weather on the way! Once the block locks, the weather rocks

 

I am sure he is talking about the east coast...

[stuffradio]

 

Weakening polar vortex may yield longer, harsher winters in North America

 

Longer, harsher winters may be in store for the portions of North America as the polar vortex continues to weaken and shifts, according to a new study.

 

The polar vortex is a large pocket of frigid air that hovers above the polar regions, and is most prominent in the winter months.

Researchers at China's Lanzhou University penned the study, which was published in Nature Climate Change last month.

 

Full article here: http://www.accuweather.com/en/features/trend/weakening_shifting_polar_vortex_study_longer_harsher_winters_north_america/61622468

 

They forgot to write "in the East Coast" in the headline!

[Phil]

Anybody seen the Euro weeklies?

Weeklies have the Niño/+PNA/expanded Hadley Cell look, which lasts all the way through December, probably into January verbatim.

 

Weeks 3-6, though day 45:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/D3BF6D96-CED9-453E-9A13-D4F28A50BCA3_zpsscqegttw.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/7CFA883B-F353-4CB2-8A8A-DC92018AAE67_zpsl5cvewk0.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/9D57B5D3-B4E5-4592-9B39-7151B320B5B5_zpss4vtsocq.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/9054ACCD-C491-4E69-A646-5C501D37B4FF_zpsdasaobkp.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/9A92BFDC-0AE2-4773-B81C-430FF088BA56_zpskxd14nnw.png

[Jesse]

Yeah and it totally ruined my day

That's weird. At least it's sunny!

[TT-SEA]

But then I remembered Trump is now President-elect and I decided life is worth living. 

 

 

You were just telling us right before the election how you could not believe your ex-wife was voting for Trump.    You said he was unfit to be president.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The drunk uncle 18z is the best run of the autumn so far. 

[stuffradio]

Weeklies have the Niño/+PNA/expanded Hadley Cell look, which lasts all the way through December, probably into January verbatim.

 

Weeks 3-6, though day 45:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/D3BF6D96-CED9-453E-9A13-D4F28A50BCA3_zpsscqegttw.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/7CFA883B-F353-4CB2-8A8A-DC92018AAE67_zpsl5cvewk0.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/9D57B5D3-B4E5-4592-9B39-7151B320B5B5_zpss4vtsocq.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/9054ACCD-C491-4E69-A646-5C501D37B4FF_zpsdasaobkp.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/9A92BFDC-0AE2-4773-B81C-430FF088BA56_zpskxd14nnw.png

I see why Bastardi was talking about the weeklies. It favours East coast snow and west coast no snow!

[Phil]

I see why Bastardi was talking about the weeklies. It favours East coast snow and west coast no snow!

Bastardi is almost like an east coast version of Jim.

 

Endlessly optimistic regardless of how terrible things look.

[TT-SEA]

Bastardi is almost like an east coast version of Jim.

 

Endlessly optimistic regardless of how terrible things look.

 

 

Yep.    

[TT-SEA]

All 3 radars in the region are back up and operational.   Hopefully all the major issues have now been resolved so we can enjoy tracking numerous snow events this winter!

[Jesse]

Turned into a very nice afternoon. I've missed the combination of clear skies and a cool airmass so much this fall.

[Jesse]

Yep.

Jim can be positive for a long time but can also suddenly turn very negative.

 

I don't think Bastardi is ever not positive for the East Coast.

[bainbridgekid]

Hey, a post from you that put a smile on my face! All joking aside, I'm still not convinced even though multiple members have agreed it should be a good spot overall. I suppose the past few years have just turned me into a negative nancy

I really think you'll be in a good spot for convergence and upslope flow. Should be significantly wetter there than in Bellingham. I'm sure there are quite a few times Bham gets an inch or so and your area gets 3-4".

 

Obviously it's no slam dunk and sometimes less favorable areas end up getting hit harder (2013-14 Eugene says high) but overall your area should do relatively well.

[Jesse]

18z ensembles running cooler overall.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like a nice sunset is on tap in Seattle: http://50yrcamera.spaceneedle.net/

[Front Ranger]

Jim can be positive for a long time but can also suddenly turn very negative.

 

I don't think Bastardi is ever not positive for the East Coast.

 

Bipolar. 

 

Hopefully we get to see more straight up polar Jim this winter.

[Deweydog]

Severe clear here!

[Bryant]

I really think you'll be in a good spot for convergence and upslope flow. Should be significantly wetter there than in Bellingham. I'm sure there are quite a few times Bham gets an inch or so and your area gets 3-4".

 

Obviously it's no slam dunk and sometimes less favorable areas end up getting hit harder (2013-14 Eugene says high) but overall your area should do relatively well.

I feel like it hasn't stopped raining in weeks at my location. Suppose it's been that way around most of the area though. Need to get a weather station set up soon and get it linked to wunderground.

 

My family in Greeley, Co are seeing snow. I'm sure Flatiron is as well

[Timmy]

Severe clear here!

 

Smells like it's gon' freeze

[Front Ranger]

I feel like it hasn't stopped raining in weeks at my location. Suppose it's been that way around most of the area though. Need to get a weather station set up soon and get it linked to wunderground.

 

My family in Greeley, Co are seeing snow. I'm sure Flatiron is as well

 

Yup, got 2.5" today and still snowing lightly. Barely managed to avoid setting both the warmest temp and latest snow on record for Denver this month.

[TT-SEA]

Severe clear here!

 

 

Here too.

 

Snow on the Cascades was showing up nicely at sunset...

 

[Front Ranger]

Yup. What was looking like a 50/40 spread has morphed into a 55/45. Par for the course. Just one step closer to a record warm month!

 

PDX is already down to 46.

[Jesse]

PDX is already down to 46.

That was my weenie post for the day. We all have to get one off our chest every now and then.

[liquidsnow]

Remember winter was a season around here?

 

I remember.

 

Bring on the summer! 8 months of fall does suck.

[snow_wizard]

I think it might freeze tonight. Already down to 42 here.

[Deweydog]

Remember winter was a season around here?

 

I remember.

 

Bring on the summer! 8 months of fall does suck.

Winter doesn't start for 13 days.

 

That's my weenie post for the day.

[Tyler Mode]

39 at my place...hopefully the fog stays away so I can get a freeze and maybe the grass will slow down finally.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=E2837&table=1&banner=off

[Bryant]

Yup, got 2.5" today and still snowing lightly. Barely managed to avoid setting both the warmest temp and latest snow on record for Denver this month.

I said this previously to someone else.... pics for the less fortunate!

[Bryant]

Remember winter was a season around here?

 

I remember.

 

Bring on the summer! 8 months of fall does suck.

Maybe one day we'll have the technology to call winter cancel on November 17th, but until then, wipe up those tears and start a winter cheer!

[Bryant]

I'm a card dealer at a casino, and one of our dealers hates snow. He is one of those guys that talks way too much, and says the same things over and over. Lately all I hear out of him is telling the players "no snow, no snow". I want us to get absolutely burried and see it bite him in the a**

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 48 minutes!!!!

[stuffradio]

After getting close to 0.80" of rain today, I'm at 9.31" of rain this month now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

36 currently...OMG. 

[Gradient Keeper]

36 currently...OMG. 

Brrrr! Might need to put socks on later

[luvssnow_spokane]

down to 38... just added a log to the fire

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS has commenced. Here we gooooooooooooooooo!!!!

 

Feel free to play along

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015092718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=471

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6

[snow_wizard]

down to 38... just added a log to the fire

The wood stove feels so good tonight. I've been waiting for that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

35 now...Can we...Do...It...