November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy]

I'm liking the 00z gfs for next weekend (viewing from 500mb anomaly). Looks cooler

[TT-SEA]

First snow of the season in Minnesota...  

 

https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherChannel/videos/10154822279005921/

[Gradient Keeper]

Brutal cold moves into Alaska, Yukon around and just after day 10

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111900/gfs_T850_ak_41.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111900/gfs_T850_ak_44.png

[ShawniganLake]

Gfs gets pretty interesting after day 8-9. Looks pretty close to a snow setup for northern Washington/ SW BC. Hints of a Kona low trying to establish.

[Timmy]

The 00z is continued nina pattern through most of it. Would be epic for the cascades

[Gradient Keeper]

First run with a solid ridge over western Alaska.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge is demolished after day 12..... strong jet ensues

[Gradient Keeper]

The 00z is continued nina pattern through most of it. Would be epic for the cascades

Yeah. Jet is suppressed. Unbelievable mountain snow

[Phil]

First snow of the season in Minnesota...

 

https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherChannel/videos/10154822279005921/

I'm sweating with nostalgia. The sound of the wind roaring through bare trees is my favorite aspect of blizzards.

[stuffradio]

I'm sweating with nostalgia. The sound of the wind roaring through bare trees is my favorite aspect of blizzards.

I had thunder snow in 2008. The nostalgia!

[Trainwreck]

I had thunder snow in 2008. The nostalgia!

As did I. Pretty cool to experience. Central Oregon has some diverse weather from time to time.

[stuffradio]

Just look at those nice chilly dogs at hour ~280 onwards.

[Gradient Keeper]

Dramatic pattern change coming

.... Much colder runs on the way

[TT-SEA]

Dramatic pattern change coming

.... Much colder runs on the way

 

 

LOVE the idea of a suppressed jet.

[Gradient Keeper]

Call it a hunch. I have nothing to lose, and if by some chance I'm right it makes it that much sweeter.

[ShawniganLake]

Call it a hunch. I have nothing to lose, and if by some chance I'm right it makes it that much sweeter.

The height rises into the Aleutians looks more pronounced and longer lasting on tonight ensemble. It's still out in Lala land but it's intriguing for now. If nothing else, it's probably a good sign for the rest of the winter if we can bust up the NPAC low for a while.

[Gradient Keeper]

The height rises into the Aleutians looks more pronounced and longer lasting on tonight ensemble. It's still out in Lala land but it's intriguing for now. If nothing else, it's probably a good sign for the rest of the winter if we can bust up the NPAC low for a while.

Agreed. Positive anomaly throughout along 160/165 W is actually a huge improvement in the overall 500mb pattern..

[ShawniganLake]

Euro is coming in now. I can hardly contain my excitement........crucial run.

[Bryant]

Agreed. Positive anomaly throughout along 160/165 W is actually a huge improvement in the overall 500mb pattern..

That -NAO signal is quite strong still unfortunately.

[Phil]

That -NAO signal is quite strong still unfortunately.

Unfortunately? A Hudson Bay/Greenland vortex destructively interferes with the -PNA cell. This is exactly why the last few winters were failures in the west. Without off-domain supplementation, obtaining sufficient meridional transport across NW North America becomes much more difficult.

 

Ideally, I'd like to see a west-based +WPO/-EPO/-NAO. The elongated, equatorward-biased Aleutian ridge assists in developing a +EPO/strong PV regime, which can be very difficult to break especially towards mid/late winter in a -ENSO state.

[stuffradio]

Unfortunately? A Hudson Bay/Greenland vortex destructively interferes with the -PNA cell. This is exactly why the last few winters were failures in the west. Without off-domain supplementation, obtaining sufficient meridional transport across NW North America becomes much more difficult.

 

Ideally, I'd like to see a west-based +WPO/-EPO/-NAO. The elongated, equatorward-biased Aleutian ridge assists in developing a +EPO/strong PV regime, which can be very difficult to break especially towards mid/late winter in a -ENSO state.

What do you think about the GFS run?

[Phil]

What do you think about the GFS run?

Haven't looked at it yet. One second.

[Phil]

What do you think about the GFS run?

I guess it depends on what kind of pattern progression you'd prefer and/or enjoy over the next month.

 

The 00z GFS looks like a classically broad, zonal -PNA/Aleutian ridge pattern to me. While that's a nice pattern if you enjoy modestly chilly Pacific air and general troughing/storminess, in the long run it's a pattern that is detrimental for poleward mass/momentum transport and usually trends into a +EPO/GOA vortex regime, while also building a stronger NW Atlantic and/or Canadian ridge which prevents a SE ridge from developing and/or holding.

 

It's not so much that the pattern is bad..it's not. Rather, it's the consequence the pattern has on the waveguide resonances that can be problematic, IMO.

[Phil]

From the 00z GFS, can kinda see why the NAO block is important given the poor NPAC state. If you reverse the NAO sign, we get a pattern similar to 2014/15 and even last winter to some extent.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

[Phil]

Now here's an aggregate of the recent "pedestrian" neutral/negative ENSO winters, which were were mostly zonal and lacked Arctic air. Almost opposite.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/D61B6D6F-1511-479A-B067-11B34D67E4BB_zpsge2zfng8.png

[snow_wizard]

That -NAO signal is quite strong still unfortunately.

1968-69 says you might want to reconsider your position on the NAO.

[snow_wizard]

From the 00z GFS, can kinda see why the NAO block is important given the poor NPAC state. If you reverse the NAO sign, we get a pattern similar to 2014/15 and even last winter to some extent.

 

1968/12/17 is a really interesting analog!

[snow_wizard]

At least 3 consecutive runs that show 850s dropping to -6 or below over SEA. Things are starting to get interesting!

 

EDIT: It appears the GFS ensemble control model dropped to -8 on the latest run. A few ensemble members getting into snow territory now.

[richard mann]

(cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1445-mid-fall-2016-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/

[Phil]

The 00z GFS begins to restrengthen the PV later in the run, which appears to be a direct consequence of the broad Aleutian ridge which shuts down vertical wave activity fluxes from the troposphere into the stratosphere through the NPAC.

 

This would make it difficult to leave the broad Hadley Cell regime in the long run, hence reduce the chances of favorable NPAC blocking and significant winter weather.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

[stuffradio]

What world did I just walk into? Knock it off. I will put anyone on mod preview if you do things like this. This is toxic behviour, I don't care if it's richard or phil doing attacking. I will not treat you lightly. Keep it in PM or don't bother posting here.

[Gradient Keeper]

What world did I just walk into? Knock it off. I will put anyone on mod preview if you do things like this. This is toxic behviour, I don't care if it's richard or phil doing attacking. I will not treat you lightly. Keep it in PM or don't bother posting here.

Did I miss something? Posts must have been deleted....

[Bryant]

Did I miss something? Posts must have been deleted....

 

You could  say that lol

[Weather101]

At least 3 consecutive runs that show 850s dropping to -6 or below over SEA. Things are starting to get interesting!

 

EDIT: It appears the GFS ensemble control model dropped to -8 on the latest run. A few ensemble members getting into snow territory now.

For day 8-10 timeframe ?

[Gradient Keeper]

6z pretty decent and dangling a few carrots(and celery)

 

Day 8-14 500mb Composite Analog shows definite improvement

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_06gfs814.gif

[luvssnow_spokane]

Wow. I go to bed and all hell breaks loose?' What did I miss? ...

[GobBluth]

Wow. I go to bed and all hell breaks loose?' What did I miss? ...

Mann showed up

[FroYoBro]

Sources just told me the this 12z run will be the most important of the entire winter season. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Mann showed up

Oh... must have been Mann and Phil hostility

[westcoastexpat]

Glad I missed whatever happened.

 

I agree that the upcoming pattern is not a great one... I'd rather arctic outflow from the east than cool, modified ocean air from the northwest. However, it's an improvement and I'm not going to complain.

 

I will agree with Phil in that we shouldn't be rooting for a NAO reversal until the Pacific gets its act together. It would result in a 14-15 winter and who wants that.

 

It is nice to see a shift to a more Nina-looking pattern. A step in the right direction, but a far cry from peeing-my-pants-excited.