November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

I'm still waiting for the rest of the Cherry and willow leaves to fall before my last mow. We need a good windstorm to finish things off!

We finally got a good east wind yesterday so everything is down now.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z ECMWF ensemble continues to like the idea of -NAO with slightly above normal heights over the GOA for the 11 to 15 day period. Not too shabby. The control model is much the same except for more robust with the anoms.

[Parksvillewx]

GOES-R satellite launch streaming on NASA TV right now. Launch has been delayed 35 minutes so far. Kind of neat to watch.

 

https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html#public

[Bryant]

GOES-R satellite launch streaming on NASA TV right now. Launch has been delayed 35 minutes so far. Kind of neat to watch.

 

https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html#public

Was fun to watch, thanks for the heads up

[snow_wizard]

The 18z continues to look reasonably chilly for the most part.

[Deweydog]

Am I the only one who's kinda bored?

[crf450ish]

Am I the only one who's kinda bored?

No

[luminen]

48/34 was yesterday's high/low. Today wasn't much warmer. The anti-pipeline protesters downtown made it feel even colder too.

 

Funny how the majority of them probably supported Trudeau last year.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 56 minutes!

[catnip]

Another tweet from JB:

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 9 minutes

 

Feel free to play along
Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015092718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197
North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=471
North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6

[luvssnow_spokane]

Another tweet from JB:

 

 

IMG_1278.JPG

Yawn

[Gradient Keeper]

Through day 7 no real changes. Incredible mountain snow potential

[TT-SEA]

Through day 7 no real changes. Incredible mountain snow potential

 

 

I like that more than cold and dry right now.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7-8 compared to previous 5 runs notice a huge difference with energy much weaker off Asia, Kamchatka and the Aleutians.

[Timmy]

Out to hr 180, less amplified and more zonal. Still cool, not as cool.

[luvssnow_spokane]

To summarize things are not looking as good. Normal winter stuff

[Timmy]

Yuck hr 204 it looks like it wants to move a ridge over us.

[Timmy]

Definitely more cold into Alaska and NW Canada

[Sometimesdylan]

00z GFS in 9 minutes

 

Feel free to play along

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015092718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=471

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6

 

No Alaska view? 

 

 

Currently in Tenakee Springs! Not any snow on the ground. It's about 19 degrees right now (per wunderground...) I can probably count the number of times Tenakee Springs has hit 19 degrees in the 3 years in one hand. Wouldn't be surprised anyway.

 

Sunrise tomorrow at about 8am, sunset at 03:35pm. Hope to sight in my girlfriends rifle and then go cruise around on the skiff and look for deer. Winds look to be pretty mild, so that should be nice.

 

Hoping for some snow this next week. Will really make the hunting a bit easier. I'm okay with walking around to find them, but about 6 inches of snow will really help fill the freezer.

 

18z GFS showed a good amount of snow, 00z... moves the timing of the front up and shortens it.  Oh well. Hope for the best. Will work with the weather gods give us.

[Gradient Keeper]

No Alaska view? 

 

 

Currently in Tenakee Springs! Not any snow on the ground. It's about 19 degrees right now (per wunderground...) I can probably count the number of times Tenakee Springs has hit 19 degrees in the 3 years in one hand. Wouldn't be surprised anyway.

 

Sunrise tomorrow at about 8am, sunset at 03:35pm. Hope to sight in my girlfriends rifle and then go cruise around on the skiff and look for deer. Winds look to be pretty mild, so that should be nice.

 

Hoping for some snow this next week. Will really make the hunting a bit easier. I'm okay with walking around to find them, but about 6 inches of snow will really help fill the freezer.

 

18z GFS showed a good amount of snow, 00z... moves the timing of the front up and shortens it.  Oh well. Hope for the best. Will work with the weather gods give us.

Here ya go http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112000&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=292

[Gradient Keeper]

Is that a Rex block setting up at 160 W?

[Sometimesdylan]

Here ya go http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112000&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=292

Haha was just kidding, have it bookmarked.

 

Holy smokes I spoke to soon. 

 

I feel like I know enough to think I'll see snow in the next couple days, but no idea really of the specific timing or how much. Or maybe it will be cold rain. 

 

Time to stoke the fire and... chill haha

[Gradient Keeper]

In my opinion, this is a vastly improved run from 135/140 W to 180W/date line. If we see future runs or the ECMWF show the energy coming off Asia/Kamchatka weaker, that could bode very well for us.

[Timmy]

Wow. Ridge builds into Alaska and retrogrades in Lala land

[Timmy]

Definitely hinting and some large scale blocking late in the run. Could be interesting to watch future runs.

[Gradient Keeper]

Definitely hinting and some large scale blocking late in the run. Could be interesting to watch future runs.

Agreed

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8-14 500mb Composite Analogs. Not bad. Move the positive anomaly further west and we're in business.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

[snow_wizard]

Nice GFS run tonight. Very solid indeed!

[snow_wizard]

Day 8-14 500mb Composite Analogs. Not bad. Move the positive anomaly further west and we're in business.

 

 

 

That 1968 analog keeps showing up. Right about the time of the December warning shot that year.

[snow_wizard]

Yawn

It shows us cold. What's wrong with that?

[HighlandExperience]

It shows us cold. What's wrong with that?

 

Agreed. Plus the mountain snowpack is going to look very nice starting this week. Higher elevations in WA/BC will easily see 4-6 feet over the upcoming period. A nice change from the past two seasons that had lackluster starts. 

 

[snow_wizard]

Agreed. Plus the mountain snowpack is going to look very nice starting this week. Higher elevations in WA/BC will easily see 4-6 feet over the upcoming period. A nice change from the past two seasons that had lackluster starts. 

 

Wow!

 

I can't believe how this is unfolding EXACTLY how I wanted.

 

As we get into week two the -NAO -PNA theme is quite impressive. Showing up strongly on most GFS runs.

[MikeInEverett]

Over the last few days I forgot how nice it was to look at the mountains and see snow. Even nicer to see that they're gonna be slammed with snow over the next few weeks.

[HighlandExperience]

Wow!

 

I can't believe how this is unfolding EXACTLY how I wanted.

 

As we get into week two the -NAO -PNA theme is quite impressive. Showing up strongly on most GFS runs.

 

Right. Just a few days ago Cliff Mass was calling for the end of the world with a crappy ski season. I know we have been off to a slow start this November with warmth, but things are turning around for the better in the next 7-10 days. 

[snow_wizard]

Right. Just a few days ago Cliff Mass was calling for the end of the world with a crappy ski season. I know we have been off to a slow start this November with warmth, but things are turning around for the better in the next 7-10 days.

I can't understand where he was coming from with that. The blob is gone and he should know huge November torches are usually followed by good things.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is showing a lot of days with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s next week with lows in the upper 30s or so. Certainly continues the cooling trend.

[Deweydog]

Euro at day 10 looks like a classic pre-Arctic setup for 1-12 weeks later.

[Weather101]

Euro at day 10 looks like a classic pre-Arctic setup for 1-12 weeks later.

LOL

[Gradient Keeper]

00z CMC Ensembles - 500mb anomalies: looks like a retrogression signal after day 10

00z ECMWF Ensembles - 500mb anomalies: Nice positive anomaly 160-165 W with some(not a lot) of amplification. The trough digging through the southern plains isn't helpful though.

 

6z GFS in 42 minutes!!!!