November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Brennan]

What page in the archives is the original Dec. 2008 thread at? Can't seem to find it! I want to read all the weenie posts from that thread when we were about 8 or so days out!!

Crap i can't remember. I wanna say 50 something? It's pretty hilarious. Everyone is exactly the same then and now. At least those of us still posting.

[Phil]

Looking at the Ensembles, the ECMWF which is real promising features a stronger SE Ridge.... GFS has none or its flat.. That's the culprit

The lackluster SE ridge on the GFS is due to upstream differences. I wouldn't say it's the culprit, rather it's more of a consequence of the disorganized upstream block.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112800/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_6.png

[Gradient Keeper]

The lackluster SE ridge on the GFS is due to upstream differences. I wouldn't say it's the culprit, rather it's more of a consequence of the disorganized upstream block.

Alright, appreciate the insight

[Phil]

00z ECMWF looking more progressive initially.

[snow_wizard]

The end of the GFS run looks like something epic could come later. Pretty likely we score big somewhere during December.

[snow_wizard]

Not feeling it as much as we all WERE feeling it 5 days from 1950 in December 2004?

 

Whatever happened to Stormchaserchuck?

That was actually very late Dec or early Jan that winter. Biggest disappointment ever.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6.. Block looks sickly, much weaker than last night's run

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/144/500h_anom.na.png

[snow_wizard]

Day 6.. Block looks sickly, much weaker than last night's run

 

 

 

It's that stupid trough over extreme eastern Siberia that cleaves the block.

[Weather101]

Lol it's okay guys, it's better waiting, Right?!?!??

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/168/500h_anom.na.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

Winter sucks!!!! 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like you may have made a great call here.  In spite of wanting the real goods to hold off I probably got over anxious.  To think the CFS is the model that has backed you up on this is funny.  I do recall the CFS did well in short range stuff on past cold snaps also.

 

Maybe if they ran the NAM out to 1600 hours it would do awesome.

[chopper 918]

Everything is looking like it should for early December in the PNW.

[snow_wizard]

Winter sucks!!!! 

 

http---mashable.com-wp-content-uploads-2013-06-Jack-Nicholson.gif

:lol:

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8.... not sure I even need to bother posting days 9 and 10. Barf city

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/192/500h_anom.na.png

[Front Ranger]

Day 7

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/168/500h_anom.na.png

 

Close to being a very snowy pattern. As it is, likely snow pretty far south down the BC coast at day 7.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well this ended badly

[Gradient Keeper]

The strangest 500mb pattern evolution I think I've ever seen....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112800/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_9.png

[Heavy Snow]

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs3/1899644_o.gif

Winter sucks!!!!

 

http---mashable.com-wp-content-uploads-2013-06-Jack-Nicholson.gif

LMFAO!

[liquidsnow]

http://i.imgur.com/gvHlJfN.gif

[chopper 918]

http://i.imgur.com/gvHlJfN.gif

 

I'm moving to Alaska.

Oh my...pure comedy!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The strangest 500mb pattern evolution I think I've ever seen....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112800/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_9.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

In reality it'll probably undercut with raging SW flow and temps in the 50s.

[Front Ranger]

Looks fairly similar to GFS by day 8, but a little colder. 

 

If these solutions pan out, gotta hand it to Goofus. It was ahead of the other models this time.

[Gradient Keeper]

http://i.imgur.com/gvHlJfN.gif

LMAO

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well early bedtime for me. I'll be dreaming of better model runs...

[Front Ranger]

Also important to note that iFred wished this upon us.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Day 8.... not sure I even need to bother posting days 9 and 10. Barf city

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/192/500h_anom.na.png

 

Doesn't look too promising for CA, either. Yesterdays run was showing the trough off the coast and over CA, as opposed to the Intermountain region this time around. NW flow with a trough well inland is a dry pattern for the state and that is something we don't need right now!

[Gradient Keeper]

There is something models are not initializing correctly, or the upper level pattern recognition. My hunch.

 

Day 9

Strong block finally.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/216/500h_anom.na.png

[chopper 918]

So does this mean no white Christmas??

[Gradient Keeper]

My hunch is models come back around to very cold solutions. Not sure by 12z tomorrow, but before Wednesday.

[chopper 918]

My hunch is models come back around to very cold solutions. Not sure by 12z tomorrow, but before Wednesday.

All kidding aside, I agree with you Rob. Like I said earlier, I think by Thursday, we'll all be giddy again.

[Front Ranger]

One thing quite different about this run is that big low in the middle of the Pacific and south of blocking ridge. It's like a Kona low on steroids, and displaced way too far north.

[Gradient Keeper]

One thing quite different about this run is that big low in the middle of the Pacific and south of blocking ridge. It's like a Kona low on steroids, and displaced way too far north.

Yes, very strangely so. I'm sticking to it. Models are not initializing things correctly, or the upper level pattern recognition. My hunch.

[luvssnow_spokane]

http://i.imgur.com/gvHlJfN.gif

LMFAO!!!  Funny thing is I just did the same thing... 

[ShawniganLake]

Looks fairly similar to GFS by day 8, but a little colder.

 

If these solutions pan out, gotta hand it to Goofus. It was ahead of the other models this time.

Looks like 850s bottom out around -8 to -9 up near the border. I could think of worse outcomes.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 .. 500mb pattern isn't worth showing anyone with working vision or human eyes.

 

However, we do manage a good backdoor cold shot..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112800/ecmwf_T850_nwus_11.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

There is something models are not initializing correctly, or the upper level pattern recognition. My hunch.

 

Day 9

Strong block finally.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/216/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

Heck lets just push it all back to day 10.... It is how we roll!

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 00z EURO was not good. We get teased at best with the Arctic Blast headed for the Midwest and East Coast like in the GFS.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/240/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/240/sfcmslp.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112800/240/850t.na.png