Money Posted March 15, 2017 Report Share Posted March 15, 2017 Here was 12z GFS: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031512/240/snku_acc.us_mw.png 6z: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031506/240/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 15, 2017 Report Share Posted March 15, 2017 After a rather dull winter a lot of us still have a chance at passing our seasonal snowfall averages. Im at about 30" so far. Avg is 35" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 15, 2017 Report Share Posted March 15, 2017 Verbatim looks like a more typical spring storm compared to the last one in terms of the airmass that it is running into. Potential generous rain maker/concrete mixer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 15, 2017 Report Share Posted March 15, 2017 Verbatim looks like a more typical spring storm compared to the last one in terms of the airmass that it is running into. Potential generous rain maker/concrete mixerNeed the storm to come in faster or the high to slow down 6z was different in how it handled that high Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 15, 2017 Report Share Posted March 15, 2017 Runs outta gas heading east..warsh, rinse, repeat. Guess the days of storms strengthening for mby are ovva! for the time being anyways Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 15, 2017 Report Share Posted March 15, 2017 Need the storm to come in faster or the high to slow down 6z was different in how it handled that highRight way out in model land so who knows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 15, 2017 Report Share Posted March 15, 2017 Seems like we could get a rather significant storm system moving in late next week. Everyone in Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois should be glad it'll be late March and not January, let me put it that way. Even though GFS is never reliable after hour 240, if everything up to hour 384 were to verify, that would be instant drought relief and then some. Some ensemble members are spoiling us for snow too (won't verify). Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 The LRC's central CONUS "Ridge" has been a dominant theme this past Winter season. Here are a couple maps illustrating the abysmal snowfall totals underneath the mean Ridge. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 Its looking cold and snowy for at least 2 more weeks. UGH! Jet Stream will be too stubborn. We should of had a jet like this in J and F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 Snowfall so far this season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 Snowfall so far this season That's not too accurate over mby. Missing ~ 10" Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 It's almost comical how strong storms just fall apart in the central states. Latest 12z GFS is trending that way...take a look at 500mb how potent storms slam the west, erode as they head east and basically fall part....the mean ridge in play... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031612/gfs_z500_vort_us_26.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031612/gfs_z500_vort_us_35.png Second storm hits the west and defletcts north as it hits the Ridge... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031612/gfs_z500_vort_us_38.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031612/gfs_z500_vort_us_45.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 Soil moisture should be good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 Soil moisture should be goodAny moisture for them will be appreciated... http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/current/current_usdm.png Hopefully NE/KS/OK posters cash in... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031612/gfs_apcpn_us_40.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 CPC's April outlook looking good for sustained Spring weather??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 @ CPC map I'd pay good $$ to make that verify. Gotta have a decent April after last year's 1982-esque pseudo-winter month! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 liking the wording from the SPC for next week. Could be active, especially if the Euro is correct. 0Z Euro had a deep low pressure right over the top of Omaha at hour 192. By Thu/D8, the trough and surface cyclone are forecast to deepenfurther, and at this point, appear to hold the greatest risk forsevere weather. Moisture and instability will be a bit better thanon the previous day, and the ECMWF shows a classic deep cyclonefavoring all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes. However,predictability is low at D8, especially considering the currentlevel of run-to-run model consistency. Thus, will defer to lateroutlooks for potential areas, which may eventually include thecentral and southern Plains, as well as the Missouri and midMississippi valleys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 Are we taking rain or snow or some nasty mix? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 @ Drought map I could see that D0 line rapidly moving northeast into Chicago once full-on spring sets in. I wouldn't be surprise if that mean ridge just "blows up" massive through the warm season engulfing a large area of the CONUS causing the same areas to score "ring of fire" storms and moisture with the rest getting dryer and dryer. Just my gut call at this range, no science here. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 liking the wording from the SPC for next week. Could be active, especially if the Euro is correct. 0Z Euro had a deep low pressure right over the top of Omaha at hour 192. By Thu/D8, the trough and surface cyclone are forecast to deepenfurther, and at this point, appear to hold the greatest risk forsevere weather. Moisture and instability will be a bit better thanon the previous day, and the ECMWF shows a classic deep cyclonefavoring all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes. However,predictability is low at D8, especially considering the currentlevel of run-to-run model consistency. Thus, will defer to lateroutlooks for potential areas, which may eventually include thecentral and southern Plains, as well as the Missouri and midMississippi valleys. LOL at breaking down a D8 model (any model) for specific "threats". They don't do that for snow systems, they know better...good luck with that though Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 Extended looking better and better for severe prospects and nice temps... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 Lookin fward to tstorms and warm temps 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 GFS with 3 large systems in the extended. If it isnt gonna be snow I hope we can score some tstorm action. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 LOL at breaking down a D8 model (any model) for specific "threats". They don't do that for snow systems, they know better...good luck with that thoughthus the reason why they didn't issue any outlook areas. all they said is that the current run of EURO shows a good setup and model inconsistencies are preventing an outlook at this time. it's not to hard to say a specific model shows a certain type of threat based on instability, shear etc. I'm not locking this in, just something I am watching like we all watch systems here. GFS has been showing a big system around that time as well. yes there outlooks for heavy snow issued at long range here:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php shows hazardous weather outlooks for 3-7 days and 8-14 days 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 I don't think I've ever seen a day 8, where they specifically mention tornadic potential. That's crazy. It looks monstrous on models, but obviously the shifts are going to happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 What does everyone think of odds of this being snow or rain? I think 30 percent snow, 70 percent rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 What does everyone think of odds of this being snow or rain? I think 30 percent snow, 70 percent rain.Where? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 gosaints, what's the temp departures looking like right now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 16, 2017 Report Share Posted March 16, 2017 gosaints, what's the temp departures looking like right now?Ill.check when I get home.. I am sure we are below normal. La crosse only +1 I saw on news this morning roch behind them I am sure. Probably -2.5 or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 17, 2017 Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 thus the reason why they didn't issue any outlook areas. all they said is that the current run of EURO shows a good setup and model inconsistencies are preventing an outlook at this time. it's not to hard to say a specific model shows a certain type of threat based on instability, shear etc. I'm not locking this in, just something I am watching like we all watch systems here. GFS has been showing a big system around that time as well. yes there outlooks for heavy snow issued at long range here:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php shows hazardous weather outlooks for 3-7 days and 8-14 daysI was aware of those outlooks. I'd like to see them detail (d8) bliz hazards and have it verify. Lucky if you actually end up with a legit storm here from that range. Thats the very reason starting thread s beyond d5 is likely to disappoint. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 17, 2017 Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 I don't think I've ever seen a day 8, where they specifically mention tornadic potential. That's crazy. It looks monstrous on models, but obviously the shifts are going to happen.Only thing that 18Z GFS says needs to happen is have the cap be broken and slightly higher CAPE values for a nice severe outbreak. Shear is there, EHI is there. Nice dry line too with ~55* dew points. Too bad I won't be here for that, but still definitely something to watch out for. Edit: Definitely just talking about Lincoln. Even juicier chances with fewer inhibiting factors exist to our West. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 17, 2017 Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 RST is -3.9F through the 16th --- LSE is -1.1F Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 17, 2017 Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 Only thing that 18Z GFS says needs to happen is have the cap be broken and slightly higher CAPE values for a nice severe outbreak. Shear is there, EHI is there. Nice dry line too with ~55* dew points. Too bad I won't be here for that, but still definitely something to watch out for. Edit: Definitely just talking about Lincoln. Even juicier chances with fewer inhibiting factors exist to our West.0Z looking even better across the plains. We'll see what the Euro shows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 17, 2017 Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 With official Spring around the corner, it may be time to put this thread to rest... Having said that, I started a Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread.... http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1535-2017-springsummer-severe-wx-thread/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 17, 2017 Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 With official Spring around the corner, it may be time to put this thread to rest... Having said that, I started a Spring/Summer Severe Wx Thread.... http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1535-2017-springsummer-severe-wx-thread/Good idea. Think Nebraska and points South are pretty much done for snow this season. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 18, 2017 Report Share Posted March 18, 2017 Euro looking colder for that Sat system. Much stronger HP to the north: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017031812/168/sfcmslp.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 18, 2017 Report Share Posted March 18, 2017 Cold enough for snow in se Wisconsin? Normally I'm ready for spring now but we got ripped off this winter. I feel I'm being greedy though, that last snow system we got was amazing for boarding Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 18, 2017 Report Share Posted March 18, 2017 Cold air not done yet. Next week gets cold again. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 19, 2017 Report Share Posted March 19, 2017 12z Euro snowfall is planning something........ http://i66.tinypic.com/2dv7k2v.png Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 19, 2017 Report Share Posted March 19, 2017 That map better not verify. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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