December 2016 Observations and Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

CFSv2 saying you will get your snow before Christmas!

 

Man, we think too much alike. Guess which site I was just on. Lol. I sure hope I do. I really had January as my big month here but I also didn't expect this month to open so cold and then just get colder. Lol.

[Tom]

Man, we think too much alike. Guess which site I was just on. Lol. I sure hope I do. I really had January as my big month here but I also didn't expect this month to open so cold and then just get colder. Lol.

I used to fantasize seeing maps like these come into fruition.  We all know to use them as guidance, but to see the modeling consistently show runs like these is not only fun to see, but it would be incredible to witness many "share the wealth" systems instead of it being centered in a micro region like the GL's in 2013-14 or New England in Jan/Feb '15.

[CentralNebWeather]

Great work guys, love reading your weather knowledge.

[OKwx2k4]

Great work guys, love reading your weather knowledge.

I don't know nearly enough but I enjoy learning and sharing what little bit I do know. This is the most enjoyable forum out there in my opinion. Glad everyone forgave the horrendous year I had last year. Lol.

 

Hope your state fills with snow soon.

[OKwx2k4]

Everyone realize that we're doing the best of this cold so far on a positive AO and NAO? What happens down the road when they all crash again? Epic thoughts.

[earthandturf]

Looks like I'll be doing a lot of plowing and sleeping for the next week and squeezing in Christmas parties tonight and Friday night. I just hope I don't have to plow on Christmas, dinner's at our house.  

[Tom]

Looks like I'll be doing a lot of plowing and sleeping for the next week and squeezing in Christmas parties tonight and Friday night. I just hope I don't have to plow on Christmas, dinner's at our house.  

Cha-Ching!  $$$$

[jaster220]

Looks like I'll be doing a lot of plowing and sleeping for the next week and squeezing in Christmas parties tonight and Friday night. I just hope I don't have to plow on Christmas, dinner's at our house.  

Would be story to tell the grand kids...

[jaster220]

[jaster220]

[Niko]

This LES event has been one of the best since I bought here 8 yrs ago. Been snowing on & off for 2 days and given me a bit over 7". Grounds still warm and settling means about 5" OTG. Great jump start for us in SWMI for the system

 

 

IMG_20161209_223559.jpgIMG_20161209_223624.jpgIMG_20161209_221612.jpg

Very nice!

[CentralNebWeather]

Just read there are outages in the ncep data fields so data may be delayed or missing . I know the nam stopped at hour 25 and gfs isn't going yet.

[NEJeremy]

Nice thing with not having any snow on the ground means we don't get the brutal cold this week.

[jaster220]

If you got this..

 

 

 

You might want this if you like paint on your vehicle:

 

 

 

(Found one for 10 bucks yesterday- never saw it before)

 

www.snowjoe.com

 

Canadian product I think

[westMJim]

I have posted this on the storm page but will also post this here as this is a wrap up of the the snow event on December 11th 2016 in southern lower Michigan.

 

Now that the first big snow event of the winter of 2016/17 has come to an end it is now time to see how this event has compared to past December 11^th events. In Grand Rapids the official snow fall amount came in at 8.9” The will put this event in 3^rd place with 14.5” in 2000 in 1^st place and 10.3” in 2^nd place is the 10.3” that fell in 1970. So far this month GR has now received 23.6” of snow. This event is also in 3^rd place over in Lansing where yesterday they recoded 7.4” with 14.5” in 2000 in first place and 8.9” in also in 1970. At Lansing, the total this month is now at 12.8”   At Muskegon the yesterday official snow fall came at 7.6” this is also in 3 place for the date with 10.8” in 2000 in 1^st place and 9” in 1962 in 2^nd place. For the month, Muskegon is now at 12.8”.

Over on the east side of the state Detroit set a new record for the date with 10.6” of snow their old record was only 5.5” in 2000.  The monthly total at Detroit is now at 11.6” At Flint they officially reported 10.0” and that fell just short of their record of 10.8” in 2000. And for the month they are now at 13.0” At Saginaw they report there was 7.8” I have no record for the date there. For the month, Saginaw is now at 10.4”

[Tom]

December 2000 is being thrown out there a lot around the GL's recently, esp if that big storm on the horizon comes into fruition.  ORD record around 31" that year, which was a slow start through the first 10 days of the month, coincidentally, picked up in intensity on the 10th-11th of that year when 9.6" was recorded (interesting that ORD just had a snowstorm on those same dates in Dec).  The month rolled on with plenty smaller scaled systems.  

 

Looking ahead, 12z NAM showing some snow for N IL/N IN/MI overnight as the arctic front moves through the region.  Another 1-2" refresher in spots???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121212/namconus_apcpn_ncus_12.png

[Niko]

December 2000 is being thrown out there a lot around the GL's recently, esp if that big storm on the horizon comes into fruition.  ORD record around 31" that year, which was a slow start through the first 10 days of the month, coincidentally, picked up in intensity on the 10th-11th of that year when 9.6" was recorded (interesting that ORD just had a snowstorm on those same dates in Dec).  The month rolled on with plenty smaller scaled systems.  

 

Looking ahead, 12z NAM showing some snow for N IL/N IN/MI overnight as the arctic front moves through the region.  Another 1-2" refresher in spots???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121212/namconus_apcpn_ncus_12.png

Lets keep adding those snow accumulations Tom.

[Tom]

00z Euro with 5 subzero nights at ORD for the coming week...if we get 3, it would rival 2013...

 

[james1976]

GFS keeps showing a storm Christmas timeframe. Is there any support for this?

[OKwx2k4]

GFS keeps showing a storm Christmas timeframe. Is there any support for this?

There's may very well be as there is some agreement for convection near the Baja getting going around day 10. Where it goes from there is anybody's guess.

[Niko]

Correction on my measurement from previously. I received 9 and 3/4 of an inch, not 10" as I thought.

[East Dubzz]

NAM actually lays down a little snow tonight:

 

Here is what the DVN has to say about that:

 

We will spend some time on the cold and wind chill concerns here
soon, but wanted to address some shorter term concerns regarding a
quick hitting snowfall potential late this evening and overnight
that may not have been given as much attention. Several weak lobes
of energy will rotate east around the base of the very cold upper
low across central Canada. The first of these will come through
overnight. Forecast soundings indicate fairly steep lapse rates
aloft and very good lift right in the prime dendritic growth zone
with this wave. Hi-res guidance including the RAP/HRRR/Several
HopWRF members and NAM all depict QPF with this wave, beginning
late this evening across north central Illinois, then spreading
east after midnight across the remainder of the area. Cobb output
indicates 14-18:1 ratios with this dry snowfall, and while QPF is
not high, NAM QPF output for ORD of only 0.07 lays down a quick
inch of snow. The RAP even shows over 0.1 inches of QPF across the
WI border that could quickly put down 1-1.5 inches or so. The
focus of guidance is I-88 north.

For this morning update we are still awaiting collaboration with
neighbors, but do feel that more than flurries is warranted.
Fortunately for Tuesday morning commuters this looks to fall
largely overnight and would not be a lot of snow given how fast
the wave will be, but could certainly be a nuisance to start the
day in some areas with cold ground easily allowing snow to stick.
Areas south should see less and maybe not a big deal.

RAP and HRRR are currently taking in to S WI instead of across Northern Illinois.

[Tom]

Correction on my measurement from previously. I received 9 and 3/4 of an inch, not 10" as I thought.

You probably had over 10" due to settling...prob close to 11" if you measured every 3 hours and wiped off the board or deck.  My snow settled down to 6" from a 7.8" snow fall.

[OKwx2k4]

You all just keep maintaining that glacier until Christmas. Hopefully that week I can join you all.

[Niko]

You probably had over 10" due to settling...prob close to 11" if you measured every 3 hours and wiped off the board or deck.  My snow settled down to 6" from a 7.8" snow fall.

Its funny because yesterday when I went outside last night to measure, it was definitely over 10" (10.3 or so to be exact) and when I when outside to measure today it was slightly less.

[East Dubzz]

18z NAM backs off on any snowfall for tonight, at least over here in Western Illinois.

[Niko]

Brutal cold coming.....my highs stand a chance of not getting above 10F by Thursday!

[jaster220]

Its funny because yesterday when I went outside last night to measure, it was definitely over 10" (10.3 or so to be exact) and when I when outside to measure today it was slightly less.

Did you just move from Florida?? Snow will always settle, evaporate, melt from warm ground, sublimate, etc.

 

NWS guidelines say measure in 6 hr intervals, but unless you have ideal conditions 3 hrs like Tom said will get you a more accurate total. I was slacking and only did 6 hrs, so my 9.1 total may have been a bit more??? Idk

[jaster220]

Keewenaw scores 1st GL's bliz warning - and it lasts for like 2.5 days LOL

[Niko]

Did you just move from Florida?? Snow will always settle, evaporate, melt from warm ground, sublimate, etc.

 

NWS guidelines say measure in 6 hr intervals, but unless you have ideal conditions 3 hrs like Tom said will get you a more accurate total. I was slacking and only did 6 hrs, so my 9.1 total may have been a bit more??? Idk

Funny that didn't occur my mind, but, yes, my accumulations must have been higher because my weatherman said earlier that parts of Macomb counties were near a foot (includes me).

 

Tbh: I am thinking my snowfall number must have been somewhere between 10-12 inches in storm total. Not too shabby.

[jaster220]

[Tom]

Clear, moon lit skies under a fresh snow cover and temps are dropping. It's a cold 10F out there. Snow showers developing to my west.

[Grizzcoat]

Did you just move from Florida?? Snow will always settle, evaporate, melt from warm ground, sublimate, etc.

 

NWS guidelines say measure in 6 hr intervals, but unless you have ideal conditions 3 hrs like Tom said will get you a more accurate total. I was slacking and only did 6 hrs, so my 9.1 total may have been a bit more??? Idk

Actually-- official snowfall measured by the NWS (or through a contractor which is what is at most major airports and official  climo stations-- ie. ORD,MWK,MSP,OMA,DSM etc...) is measured every hour. This is how they get SNINCR remarks in the metars-- which means the snowfall has increased at least .4555" (round up to .5", which is rounded up to 1". .7" of snowfall in the last hour with 1" on the ground is coded SNINCR 1/1.    2.2" of snow in the last hour with 7" on the ground is coded -  SNINCR 2/7.   Even if SNINCR remark is not issued, the observer on duty is measuring every hour, clearing the snowboard (or part of it) and repeating every hour until the snow ends. Melting snow IS counted and is measured every hour just the same.

 

I believe the 6 hr interval is for coop observers.

[jaster220]

Actually-- official snowfall measured by the NWS (or through a contractor which is what is at most major airports and official  climo stations-- ie. ORD,MWK,GRR,MSP,OMA,DSM etc...) is measured every hour. This is how they get SNINCR remarks in the metars-- which means the snowfall has increased at least .4555" (round up to .5", which is rounded up to 1". .7" of snowfall in the last hour with 1" on the ground is coded SNINCR 1/1.    2.2" of snow in the last hour with 7" on the ground is coded -  SNINCR 2/7.   Even if SNINCR remark is not issued, the observer on duty is measuring every hour, clearing the snowboard (or part of it) and repeating every hour until the snow ends. Melting snow IS counted and is measured every hour just the same.

 

I believe the 6 hr interval is for coop observers.

 

I think you're correct about those instructions being for COOP's now that I think about it. Nonetheless, more frequent the measurements, the more you will have for a total. But, the contractor that DTW has for the official measurements works a day job and isn't at the airport measuring location hourly. He was responsible for the new record 3 yrs ago for Detroit, so I am not sure your statement that every major airport has somebody out there hourly clearing a board is necessarily so. 

 

Ofc, for mby, I'm often at work all day while it's snowing and can only get a measurement 12 or more hours later so I am certain my totals are quite conservative, certainly not the other direction. 

[Grizzcoat]

Your correct on DTW not measuring snow (And GRR)-- a dozen or so major  airports are deemed to not have sufficient measuring locations within a timely manner for the observer to get back to his post with ASOS.

[Tom]

Regarding the MJO, could the Euro be caving to the GFS???  Starting to beeline towards Phase 7/8...GFS has had this all along over the last several days.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

[jaster220]

Regarding the MJO, could the Euro be caving to the GFS???  Starting to beeline towards Phase 7/8...GFS has had this all along over the last several days.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

Looks like "The King" is chasing the GFS around all over the place lately..

[OKwx2k4]

That means the AO and NAO should tank again pretty soon as well. No complaints from me about that.

[jaster220]

That means the AO and NAO should tank again pretty soon as well. No complaints from me about that.

 

Was shown how the PV lobe swings through the N GL's then right back around, thus the AO going positive, but just as it passes by waving a hand, lol

[OKwx2k4]

Was shown how the PV lobe swings through the N GL's then right back around, thus the AO going positive, but just as it passes by waving a hand, lol

Either way. Lol. We've all benefitted in that situation before as well.