December 2016 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Looks decently impressive to me.

 

gfs_t2m_a_f_conus2_16.png

 

It should, compare MI to normal vs OK = massive difference. He's correct, a couple days with highs in the mid-20's in December even in SMI isn't noteworthy. But with the warm lakes (Lk. Mich currently 3.8ºF above long term avg for this date), I hope the winds will give a vector favorable for SWMI to score some decent LES. 

[jaster220]

The snow doesn't seem impressive also

 

It does up through the GL's with both 12z GEM and GFS showing a nice system Sat/Sun. Ofc, it'd help us understand your 1 line blurbs if you had your location in your poster info. 

[Niko]

@Jaster

 

You could be in line for some nice LES as the colder air arrives. Several inches could become likely.

[james1976]

That was a wild GFS run. Geez

[jaster220]

@Jaster

 

You could be in line for some nice LES as the colder air arrives. Several inches could become likely.

 

Yep, starting to show up in my 7-day zone icons. The big flakes flying icons. 

 

Tomorrow's news today via the CPC. (says made at 3 pm today, which hasn't happened yet - lol). Guess after 2 days off, they're eager to get back to painting threats with this busy pattern switch-up. They finally have the LES portrayed correctly. Often they've cover the entire LP of Mich which rarely if ever is the case with LES. 

 

 

[jaster220]

 

[jaster220]

Dee's take:

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Most local forecasts are downgrading my chance of snow Tuesday into Wednesday.  What looked like a decent 3-4 inch snow just a couple days ago is now virtually nothing.     

[clintbeed1993]

 

 

Most local forecasts are downgrading my chance of snow Tuesday into Wednesday.  What looked like a decent 3-4 inch snow just a couple days ago is now virtually nothing.     

 

This is the norm in Nebraska.  Snow all around and nothing in the middle.  Sad that Kansas will see more snow than we have.

[CentralNebWeather]

This is the norm in Nebraska.  Snow all around and nothing in the middle.  Sad that Kansas will see more snow than we have.

Just last night I was forecasted for 1-3 which had been lessened from the previous day.  This morning it was about 1 inch.  Now it is basically a 20% chance of flurries.  So frustrating.  

[NEJeremy]

Blizzard warnings for most of NoDak through tomorrow. 6-14" of snow with winds up to 50 mph and temperatures falling into the single digits. Falling on some of the same areas that had 2 feet of snow last week

[CentralNebWeather]

Can only hope that when the glacier is set, the storm track shifts south

[jaster220]

Blizzard warnings for most of NoDak through tomorrow. 6-14" of snow with winds up to 50 mph and temperatures falling into the single digits. Falling on some of the same areas that had 2 feet of snow last week

Yep. There's our bliz we thought we'd have a shot at!! Hate when northern waves get amped. Ofc it's early Dec so we fight climo.

[jaster220]

[jaster220]

@Jaster

 

You could be in line for some nice LES as the colder air arrives. Several inches could become likely.

That was a wild GFS run. Geez

Wow! 12z GFS every ensemble member showed snow across the Midwest most hammer MI from every angle too. Niko!! Get ready dude

[Niko]

Wow! 12z GFS every ensemble member showed snow across the Midwest most hammer MI from every angle too. Niko!! Get ready dude

Cannot wait Jaster.......

[jaster220]

Sheesh @ ND 12-18" more where they got hit so hard last time only now it's on 50 mph winds

[Tom]

Sheesh @ ND 12-18" more where they got hit so hard last time only now it's on 50 mph winds

That has been Blizzard alley so far this season...

[Grizzcoat]

This pattern is loaded with potential. Past 96 hours -- guidance is going to go back and forth,, but as long as the gradient is there ,, the sky is the limit. Most excited for a month that I have been in some time. Glad I cut/split another full cord of wood.....

[jaster220]

That has been Blizzard alley so far this season...

 

Be awesome if that could shift our way for January. I'm optimistic this is the year for a legit red-headlines storm across a wide area that includes SMI. 

[GDR]

[Tom]

From warm ground tem, my snow cover has melted to just around 2".  Hope it doesn't melt too much today to save some of it when the cold hits this week.  Looking forward to the colder temps so they can freeze up the ground before the next system hits and have a better chance of accumulating quicker.

 

Not much freezing fog here this morning.  I'm under a pocket of clear skies and the sun is trying to poke out.  It's been a cloudy stretch every since I arrived last Wednesday.

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=69635

[Niko]

Be awesome if that could shift our way for January. I'm optimistic this is the year for a legit red-headlines storm across a wide area that includes SMI. 

[gosaints]

Threaded the needle for another 1.5 last night

[Tom]

Threaded the needle for another 1.5 last night

What is your season total thus far?

[gosaints]

4.5-5.5...

 

The compaction rate of the 1st storm made an accurate measurement tough

[jaster220]

4.5-5.5...

 

The compaction rate of the 1st storm made an accurate measurement tough

 

Call it 5" then..

[Tom]

Interesting, both GFS/EURO showing the MJO riding on the edge of the warm phases 2/3, then beeline towards the colder phases 7/8/1 in the extended...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif'

[jaster220]

With GRR running rogue and discarding LES products, curious to see when/if headlines are issued, just what they will be??   All other LES belt offices already hoisting Watches and/or Advisories. GRR could get schooled by some of these other WFO's when it comes to proper headlines for snow events.

 

When I got gas this morn, the pump f-cast showed SNOW for today and I was hopeful things had ratcheted up a notch or they knew something the NWS didn't. Check out the radar right over Calhoun county - LOL. Looks like I had "virga snow" at least 

 

 

[jaster220]

Huge warm pool just a waitin to give it up to the arctic intrusion..

 

 

[jaster220]

Been waiting what seems like forever to get this kind of stuff in SMI again. This winter??

 

 

 

[james1976]

Does anyone have 2m temps? I hear GFS is way cold next week.

[jaster220]

GRR LES headlines = "crickets"

 

KBUF:

 

 

 

BUF issued LES Warnings already... 2-3 ft. in the most persistent bands. Gotta love WNY... long fetch and a lot elevation. I'd be happy with half of that around here.

[jaster220]

GRR says "screw the LES products" - issues traditional WSWatches..

 

 

[Tom]

Cold front has swept through a few hours ago before temps briefly spiked to 41F, current temp 35F and dropping. Snow pack has so far escaped the warmth and thankfully the landscape is still white, although, there are spots under trees and pines that are bare grass.

[jaster220]

Thanks to the lake warmth, just some scattered plow piles along the coast. Inland was a couple inches this morning - see how much lives (til spring?)

[Tom]

CPC suggesting a cold/snowy period over the next 2 weeks!  Just how I like it...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

[jaster220]

@ Maps

 

Pumped - stoked - geeked

[Snowshoe]

I like that big B right on top of Wisconsin! Those maps look great.

 

CPC suggesting a cold/snowy period over the next 2 weeks!  Just how I like it...

[OKwx2k4]

Those maps look identical to my analogs from back in September. Wow.