December 2016 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

Hoping for a few flakes overnight through tomorrow. Could we get 1 inch? North Dakota just laughs at that.

[Thunder98]

I like that big B right on top of Wisconsin! Those maps look great.

Looks like Eau Claire, WI will get the brunt of the well below average temperatures.

[Tom]

Earlier tonight, I was putting my finishing touches on my Christmas Lights and I could just feel the temps dropping as winds were pretty gusty out of the NW. I sure ain't used to this and it is just getting started! If guidance is right, next week will be brutal.

[james1976]

16 and windy this morning!

[CentralNebWeather]

I woke up this morning to a whopping 1/2 inch of snow, yippee.  14 degrees with a wind chill of 3.

[westMJim]

In looking at both the GFS and the ECMWF is that they both show a very cold week coming up. Add that to the warm and open waters of the lakes that could means there should be some good lake effect snows coming up. I say “should” as there is more to lake effect than just cold as we also need some lift and moisture (besides what that lake adds) to make it happen (or not happen) I know there are some who like the big time snows, but it should be pointed out driving can and will be a challenge.   At this time it is cloudy and 32° here with just spots of left over snow from the weekend snow.

[james1976]

I woke up this morning to a whopping 1/2 inch of snow, yippee. 14 degrees with a wind chill of 3.

Better than nothing! Thats about what my snowcover is right now.

[CentralNebWeather]

Better than nothing! Thats about what my snowcover is right now.

I know, I should be happy, just jealous when I see video from North Dakota.  

[Tom]

Just took a step outside and its cold!  Ground is completely frozen solid from all the moisture left over when the snow melt.  Now it can snow as much as it wants!  Gimme some powda!

 

I know, I should be happy, just jealous when I see video from North Dakota.  

I think Mother Nature is giving them a little "payback" after some lousy couple of Winters!  This Winter looks like a traditional one for them with brutal subzero cold and an active northern stream. 

[gosaints]

kept our snow pack here. yesterday mornings surpise 1.5 inches probably saved it as the sun came out yesterday afternoon.

[jaster220]

I have headlines!    (WWA for mby, WSWarning in traditional snow-belts toward Lk Mich)

 

IWX showing about 2" while over-LES zealous GRR has me with 4-6". With Grand Rapids' bigger multi-day snowstorms coming from LES vs synoptic, that office gets crazy over LES and down-plays synoptic events. I've learned since following wx in Marshall that when it comes to LES events, I need to take the low end of their call and divide by 2 - LOL to get a more accurate expectation.

 

Overnight Thursday looks best for inland, and this future map seems to agree:

 

 

[Tom]

Current snow cover over the CONUS...how much will it increase by the end of the weekend???  Build the glacier Mother Nature!  

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201612/nsm_depth_2016120705_National.jpg

[CentralNebWeather]

Light snow is continuing.  Might get to 1 inch.  I will say it does give the area the Christmas look and feel.  (current temp 15, wind chill 4).  

[OKwx2k4]

Haven't talked about the stratosphere much lately but holy cow. If you wanted to double down on a cold Christmas to New Years period, what's going on at 10mb right now is the best insurance you could ask for. Cold and more cold.

[jaster220]

Current snow cover over the CONUS...how much will it increase by the end of the weekend???  Build the glacier Mother Nature!  

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201612/nsm_depth_2016120705_National.jpg

 

She's about to start over my way..

 

Ahhh..true winter..been waiting for months

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

She's about to start over my way..

 

Ahhh..true winter..been waiting for months

 

20161207 KRMY 5-day iconocast.PNG

 

20161207 WWA det's.PNG

Awesome stuff there buddy!!!!!!

[OKwx2k4]

She's about to start over my way..

 

Ahhh..true winter..been waiting for months

 

20161207 KRMY 5-day iconocast.PNG

 

20161207 WWA det's.PNG

That's a beautiful forecast my friend.

[Niko]

Quick reminder for those who have outside spigots...now with the arctic air coming, don't forget to cover them with a Styrofoam protector.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

Little snow outside of town.  

[jaster220]

That's a beautiful forecast my friend.

 

Would love to see a WSWatch hoisted for the weekend system, but that's dreamy stuff with my WFO..

[jaster220]

Haven't talked about the stratosphere much lately but holy cow. If you wanted to double down on a cold Christmas to New Years period, what's going on at 10mb right now is the best insurance you could ask for. Cold and more cold.

 

Cohen, JB, you, Tom, others, going to get kudos when all is said and done. 

[Tom]

Haven't talked about the stratosphere much lately but holy cow. If you wanted to double down on a cold Christmas to New Years period, what's going on at 10mb right now is the best insurance you could ask for. Cold and more cold.

Your right, warming is really starting to blossom over Alaska and the Pole...the warming in very early Nov over Eurasia that preceded our current Arctic Attack that is forthcoming, was a 3-4 week lag period.  Current warming suggests something down the road towards end of month like you said.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

[jaster220]

Your right, warming is really starting to blossom over Alaska and the Pole...the warming in very early Nov over Eurasia that preceded our current Arctic Attack that is forthcoming, was a 3-4 week lag period.  Current warming suggests something down the road towards end of month like you said.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

-30ºF Christmas Eve at your place?? Gonna Trump '83?? Brrrr

 

Latest on my LES headlines from GRR - surprised at the 35 mph gusts tbh

 

 

 

The most intense and longest lasting portion of the event should

start Thu evening, continuing all night, and last through most of

Friday. The flow will be WNW to NW through this period, with

highest impacts over Mason, Lake, Oceana, Ottawa, Allegan, Van

Buren and Kalamazoo Counties.

 

Through this event we will see winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

This will cause blowing and drifting of the powdery snow,

especially over open areas.

[gabel23]

I don't like the looks of this pattern, we never do well in Nebraska and points south with a NW flow. I could see it where the snow continues to build to our northeast, then start to fill in to our southwest and we are stuck with nothing. The models have been showing this quiet a bit for the past week or so. Call me a pessimistic but I really don't want to sit back and watch everyone else pile up snow before x mas and we continue with bare ground.......you would think something has to give. 

[Snowlover76]

I don't like the looks of this pattern, we never do well in Nebraska and points south with a NW flow. I could see it where the snow continues to build to our northeast, then start to fill in to our southwest and we are stuck with nothing. The models have been showing this quiet a bit for the past week or so. Call me a pessimistic but I really don't want to sit back and watch everyone else pile up snow before x mas and we continue with bare ground.......you would think something has to give.

Well at least it's cold this year. Maybe Jan will deliver

[NEJeremy]

I don't like the looks of this pattern, we never do well in Nebraska and points south with a NW flow. I could see it where the snow continues to build to our northeast, then start to fill in to our southwest and we are stuck with nothing. The models have been showing this quiet a bit for the past week or so. Call me a pessimistic but I really don't want to sit back and watch everyone else pile up snow before x mas and we continue with bare ground.......you would think something has to give. 

Hasn't this pretty much been our pattern for years? I hate to say it, but every year we(Nebraska peeps) get sucked in with talk of a great pattern for the winter coming up and that everyone is on board for a great winter, but then we see everything miss us to the north and east. That's climatology though too. Omaha only averages 26" of snow so while I am full of optimism and excitement every fall for the coming winter, it seems to take only about about 3 weeks to realize it's the same thing again and I hope to just hit our average total for the season.

[CentralNebWeather]

Couple more pictures of the snow from south of town.  Merry Christmas

[westMJim]

Taking a little break from what might be to looking back at some recent Decembers in Grand Rapids Michigan.

Here are some  fast facts the last time it had gotten below zero here in Grand Rapids in December was on December 3rd when the temperature dropped to -1° and since 2000 it has only been below zero three time and two of them were in December of 2000 when it dropped to -2° on the 22nd and then it dropped down to -9° on the 28th, That -9° was the coldest reading for the winter of 2000/01. Some more Grand Rapids fast facts for recent past Decembers. It has either been very snowy 59.2" in 2000, 54.6" in 2008, 53.9" in 2001" kind of snowy with 35.4" in 2009, 34.7: in 20013. Or not much snow at all with 8.4" in 2003 45" in 2011 2.5" in 2015 and only 1.0" in December of 2014.

[westMJim]

and now back to the snow ideas for the next several days.  This is from the GRR NWS

 

 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
325 PM EST WED DEC 7 2016  
 
LATEST UPDATE...  
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED DEC 7 2016  
 
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SIT OVER MICHIGAN AND THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT  
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF INTENSE LAKE EFFECT  
SNOWFALL DOWN-WIND FROM THE LAKES, INCLUDING LAKE MICHIGAN. WINTER  
STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN  
MICHIGAN AS A RESULT. AREAS WEST OF A HOUGHTON LAKE TO GRAND RAPIDS  
TO BATTLE CREEK LINE WILL SEE THE HIGHEST IMPACTS, WHERE 4 INCHES,  
TO AS MUCH AS A FOOT OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS  
GUSTING TO AS HIGH AS 35 MPH WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING,  
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. AREAS EAST OF THIS  
LINE WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.  
 
ANOTHER SNOWY PERIOD IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH  
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. 

[jaster220]

@ WMJ post

 

CPC maps currently have my work locale under HEAVY SNOW for the 10th, 13th, 14th, & 15th. Looking for them to fill-in with the 11th and 12th for a Royal Straight Flush (to use a card shark term). Fun times - except for my commuting ofc..  

[Tom]

A little difference in the MJO between the EURO/GFS...GFS bullish cold...Euro sorta getting into Phase 7/6 (ish)

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

[Tom]

Looks like KC region got their first flakes of snow this season...

[winterfreak]

Barely a dusting and this next one is a lost cause. Hope the storm showing up day 9 produces something before a warm up around Christmas.

[OKwx2k4]

Hasn't this pretty much been our pattern for years? I hate to say it, but every year we(Nebraska peeps) get sucked in with talk of a great pattern for the winter coming up and that everyone is on board for a great winter, but then we see everything miss us to the north and east. That's climatology though too. Omaha only averages 26" of snow so while I am full of optimism and excitement every fall for the coming winter, it seems to take only about about 3 weeks to realize it's the same thing again and I hope to just hit our average total for the season.

The pattern is still evolving. The northern jet cannot stay this strong and fast for very much longer. Basically we have a very mature arctic winter pattern with a jet that is behind the times in terms of seasonal weakening. It will come with time.

[Thunder98]

Oh my god...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

[jaster220]

@ WMJ post

 

CPC maps currently have my work locale under HEAVY SNOW for the 10th, 13th, 14th, & 15th. Looking for them to fill-in with the 11th and 12th for a Royal Straight Flush (to use a card shark term). Fun times - except for my commuting ofc..  

Edit: I'm fired! Totally forgot they also showed Thur & Fri so that's 6 of next 8 days with heavy snow now that's a pattern!

[OKwx2k4]

Cohen, JB, you, Tom, others, going to get kudos when all is said and done.

I appreciate the compliment sir!

[OKwx2k4]

Oh my god...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

I love it!

[Niko]

Currently getting LES. Everything is white outside. 

 

@Jaster

You must be getting snow right now also I am assuming.

[Tom]

@ WestJim/Jaster/Niko, dang, those lake bands are intense near GRR!  I can't believe how far inland they are falling...Niko, you may get some accumulation from this.  Pretty wild.

 

It's a nippy, overcast, 17F with a brisk W wind gusting up to 30mph and a random flurry in the air.  Glad I got the thicker plastic insulation around my patio door bc it feels a lot warmer than years prior when I had a thinner one.  

 

Here is a snow fall summary from Grand Forks, ND on their Winter Storm earlier this week...

 

 

That is a rather deep snowpack that has grown for the Dakotas region.  Wonder how much this will play a role down the road.  Blocking cold HP's???

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Upper_Midwest/nsm_depth/201612/nsm_depth_2016120805_Upper_Midwest.jpg'

 

Southern Canada is looking pretty solid right now...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201612/nsm_depth_2016120805_National.jpg