Money Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 12z GFS... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122112/090/snku_acc.us_mw.pngGGEM looks decent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 18z NAM with a weenie band in NE IA/S Wisco/N MI... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016122118/069/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 18z NAM with a weenie band in NE IA/S Wisco/N MI... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016122118/069/snku_acc.us_mw.pngOnly to all be wiped away a day later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 Only made it to 32F today with a heavy overcast which helped mitigate any snow melt. The snow pack has settled and become denser over the past couple days. If we can add some snow on top of this snow cover with the Fri/Fri night system, I think there is a chance some in our region could spare a brown Christmas??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 Fridays system looks interesting! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 Only to all be wiped away a day later.I dunno, temps only spike into the 40's and maybe 50's for a short window (say 6 hours?) on Christmas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 I dunno, temps only spike into the 40's and maybe 50's for a short window (say 6 hours?) on Christmas.Temps and rain should do a pretty good job of taking most away unfortunately unless we can add more than a couple inches on Friday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 Temps and rain should do a pretty good job of taking most away unfortunately unless we can add more than a couple inches on Friday.Hoping a nice dry slot to come into fruition this weekend...the snow will take a beating no doubt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 18z GFS... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122118/066/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 21, 2016 Report Share Posted December 21, 2016 Looks like I'm in storm for 1-3" potentially here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 Hit 39 here today. Gonna have green grass sunday night. So much for building a glacier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 Hit 39 here today. Gonna have green grass sunday night. So much for building a glacierYou're above average for snow so far though right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 You're above average for snow so far though right?Rochester officially running +5 inches as of yesterday... The meltoff probably only help our area in the long run. Less supression Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 Rochester officially running +5 inches as of yesterday... The meltoff probably only help our area in the long run. Less supressionCould be. May screw my area though. I'm pretty interested in how the pattern could evolve after the reloading portion gets by us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 NAM is trending much stronger on the Friday wave it seems... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 HR 36 NAM: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016122200/036/refcmp_ptype.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 NAM def. more aggressive with snowfall amounts. Maps coming soon... Might need a thread for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 Definetly getting wetter but such a narrow band of decent qpf... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 0z NAM: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016122200/054/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 Definetly getting wetter but such a narrow band of decent qpf... Yeah, NAM showing spots with .5+ QPF: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016122200/054/qpf_024h.us_mw.png 18z: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016122118/060/qpf_024h.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 NAM reflecting better inter-action with northern energy. LOL if I hit 30" by Christmas after all this Torch-aggedon talk. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 GFS looks good around here. Wonder what the King Euro will have to say. That is the model that first caught onto it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 GEM lollipops Chicago with 4" Friday. I'm not from the Midwest (visiting Chicago from Seattle) but this seems like a very odd system. Models tend to have a very difficult time forecasting open waves like this, so I wouldn't expect to be too confident in the outcome till Friday morning. Even after that, there will be a lot of radar/thermometer watching to see where any bands may setup and if any mixing occurs through the column. Looks pretty good for a solid 1-3" system over a relatively large area, but there is definitely potential to bust in either direction if surface temps remain just above freezing or some decent banding sets up. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 GFS starting to have some real whacky runs. From past experience, usually an indication the model is seeing a lot of blocking in the medium/long range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 GEM lollipops Chicago with 4" Friday. I'm not from the Midwest (visiting Chicago from Seattle) but this seems like a very odd system. Models tend to have a very difficult time forecasting open waves like this, so I wouldn't expect to be too confident in the outcome till Friday morning. Even after that, there will be a lot of radar/thermometer watching to see where any bands may setup and if any mixing occurs through the column. Looks pretty good for a solid 1-3" system over a relatively large area, but there is definitely potential to bust in either direction if surface temps remain just above freezing or some decent banding sets up. gem_asnow_ncus_10.pngWere you in Chicago for that one sleet storm last year??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 Were you in Chicago for that one sleet storm last year???Sure was. That thing was insane. We got 4" of solid sleet at my aunt and uncle's house in Evanston. Perfect timing during the day too. I was worried the winds off the lake would cause mixing issues, but we hung at 31-32 all day. I shovelled their place and their neighbor's and I swear that stuff had the density of the sun. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 0z GFS no NYE storm. Suppressed weak waves in mid-long range. Only one run.....could be model issues.Looking good for Friday. Would like to see a snowfall map. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 DMX regarding Friday event:Each run continues to latch on to moreavailable moisture which is troublesome because if the moisturesyncs well enough with the forcing and dendritic growth zone(DGZ),this could become a headline event for snowfall. right now havegeneral 1 to 3 inch amounts mainly focused over the northeast halfof the forecast area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 Someplace could have a pretty nice surprise tomorrow. Where that happens will be impossible to pin down as the band of heavier precip seems rather narrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 Yeah i have a feeling this is gonna over perform somewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 DVN going with 1-3" area wide - would not surprise me to see some area get more than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 12z NAM...targeting N IA/WI... That's interesting.... must not be all snow in DBQ that run. Wait... is this the 06z?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 12z NAM...targeting N IA/WI... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016122206/060/snku_acc.us_mw.pngShowing alot of sleet this side of the border. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 Yeah that's the 06z.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 Yeah that's the 06z..Thanks for the good catch...fixed...looks better in IA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 Thanks for the good catch...fixed...looks better in IANo problem, I was a little confused!! Haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 Quite the difference on the RGEM compared to the NAM especially for N.Central IL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 Looking good right now. Hope I'm saying the same in 24 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 Money's topic(Friday Dec 23rd Snow Event) should probably be pinned so we can post to it and keep it simple. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 Money's topic(Friday Dec 23rd Snow Event) should probably be pinned so we can post to it and keep it simple.Didn't even see it or mention of it being posted...thanks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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