Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Through HR 30 heights suppressing a tad faster compared to 00z. Good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 HR 36 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120106/036/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 HR 54 offshore ridge weakening a bit quicker http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120106/054/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 HR 72 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120106/072/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Everything a bit farther west/slower through 72hrs. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Day 4 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120106/096/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 That ******** low is killing this run. It's pushing the offshore ridge back over us. Unreal. In EURO we trust. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120106/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Model comparison850mb temp anomaly 00z last night compared to tonight. Coldest frame Last night and tonight's 00z. MUCH COLDER. I wish I could see the frame for 12z it would be even colder yet. That's cold enough to snow all the way to San Diego. Good lord. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 That figures because the block is holding nice too... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Still getting chilly.. have to see how the next 2-4 frames look Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Day 5 ..... garbage http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120106/120/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 GFS still seems to not have a handle on the pattern. Very different 500mb progression from other runs. Or maybe it's picking up on something which would be real unfavorable for everyone. Seems wonky with all of the cut-off lows.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 GFS still seems to not have a handle on the pattern. Very different 500mb progression from other runs. Or maybe it's picking up on something which would be real unfavorable for everyone. Seems wonky with all of the cut-off lows....Models still struggling. Keeping us on the edge of our seat 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 That's one heck of a low on d6/7. Down to 973mb as it moves onshore. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 12z in 5 hours! Booo 6z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Down to 969mb onshore, lol. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 12z in 5 hours! Booo 6z.That upstream block is just too far west. Ideally we want it sitting right over the AK/NE-GOA area, not the west-central Aleutians. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 That's one heck of a low on d6/7. Down to 973mb as it moves onshore.If only that low would shift south 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 That upstream block is just too far west. Ideally we want it sitting right over the AK/NE-GOA area, not the west-central Aleutians.Seems like so much potential... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Seems like so much potential...Plenty of potential, but unfortunately the tropical convection wants to set-up around 120E (instead of 150E) which generally favors a westward shift in the poleward anticyclonic wavebreaking, towards the west/central Aleutians vs the more classic GOA/EPO domain. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 If only that low would shift southStorm king redux. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 I think the 6z GEFS might have taken a step in the wrong direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 I think the 6z GEFS might have taken a step in the wrong direction.2 steps forward 1 step back approach by the GFS to keep us guessing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 2 steps forward 1 step back approach by the GFS to keep us guessing.Hopefully Auntie wineo 6z isn't a start of a new and sad trend. Come on 00z Euro...verify!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 6z GFS Ensembles were fine with the trough. Mean temps same, some colder members, but we may warm up/moderate a tad sooner as moisture arrives hopefully not enough to remove our snow chances. The long range slightly worsened. but equally important to mention for Portland and Seattle the operational was quite an outlier beyond day 9-10. Portlandhttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Seattlehttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png Vancouver, BChttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 What a swing in the GEFS..yikes. Literally a complete reversal in the 500mb pattern during the d11-15 range. All thanks to a minor difference in the tropical forcings. Yesterday's 18z vs current 06z. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CB9623B4-A52B-4B05-B385-2E36B17F71C4_zpsp7pss1ef.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BA769995-EC28-44B7-8246-AA29DF996EA7_zpsbzep1iu8.png 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 [ Model Countdown ]Next up....*12z GFS in 3 hours 28 minutes12z GEM in 4 hours 28 minutes12z ECMWF in 5 hours 45 minutesWill we see model agreement/continuity with 12z runs? Or more confusion? We're starting to get closer to those crucial runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Seattle NWS leaning towards the ECMWF solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 The d11-15 00z EPS looks better than the GEFS, by comparison. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DBEFCC98-7226-4F0D-B68A-1009EA677259_zpsawdyeozz.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CD9AD042-1A23-4497-BF67-FD7B22F48B95_zps5lswra81.png 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 IR Loop update What becomes our Aleutian ridge, then GOA/Alaskan block is just now beginning to show up on IR Loop. Far top left of image. Run the Loop and you can see the clockwise rotation emerging. Loop http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/sat_common/201612011130_ir.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 06z was a total turd fest. On to the 12z!!!! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 06z was a total turd fest. On to the 12z!!!! Yeah, I hope the GFS isn't leading the way on this thing. The Euro looks like a lot more fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 PDX got down to 39. #winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 39 degree moderate rain...has rained all night thanks to the pscz...hoping for this kind of pscz when it's cold enough for snow next week! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Seattle NWS leaning towards the ECMWF solution.Wasn't exactly an inspiring write up in the snow dept., Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 PDX got down to 39. #winter#WarningShot Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Sliding east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Sliding east.It's over. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 I noticed the Heat Island Effect for SeaTac has a much greater effect on the lower the temps hence why lows are affected more than highs typically. This morning SeaTac shows 42 for the low and although I don't have a temp sensor the small puddles this morning had ice on top and ice on the car to the point I had to pour water over the door to open it. Big difference over such a short distance within the city of Seattle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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