December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

It blew the forecast for northern regions the last couple of days... so I don't know if that's true.

 

All of the models have done poorly with the low level cold, as they always do. But the hi-res NAM has handled many of the important details over the past week better than other models.

[snow_wizard]

I am seriously confused at the doom and gloom on here today. I think it's just disappointment carrying over from SEA/PDX not getting much snow Thursday.

 

The pattern looks cold upcoming for at least a week. The models fluctuate all the time and you're not going to get solid agreement on moisture this far in advance. I think it's ridiculous to be calling it quits until February. It's laughable.

 

I agree.  That is why I throw a major hissy fit and move on.  I'm sure nobody paid attention to my rantings yesterday anyway.  Amazing how well you have done.  I love the climate up there.

[Deweydog]

I thought we were in a La Nina winter not El Nino. Why are all the systems next week headed into California!? If they track to the PNW we can get some Snow!

Exactly.

[Phil]

18z is notably colder than the 12z for much of next week. Doesn't look as promising for snow as the Euro, but of course that could change easily.

 

Man, that massive Bering Sea low just overwhelms the pattern late next week. Depending on how that thing actually develops, what happens downstream could be quite a bit different.

It's not the Bering Sea Low that overwhelms the pattern, it's the consolidation an deep layer stacking of the PV that smacks down the NEPAC wavebreak allowing the Bering Sea Low to develop and progress eastward.

[Front Ranger]

I am seriously confused at the doom and gloom on here today. I think it's just disappointment carrying over from SEA/PDX not getting much snow Thursday.

 

The pattern looks cold upcoming for at least a week. The models fluctuate all the time and you're not going to get solid agreement on moisture this far in advance. I think it's ridiculous to be calling it quits until February. It's laughable.

 

Unrealistic expectations. Frustration after a terrible few years for snowfall.

 

And some people just don't handle model riding well.

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Things sure look different today, feels like spring. January 2012 was certainly better, but with 2 separate snow events, totaling maybe 5~6" this is the best we've had out of any of the years since. Sunday/Monday is now looking interesting; with cold air and widespread snowcover in the Fraser Valley/interior we won't have our usual challenge where the cold struggles to catch up with the moisture. Sufficiently cold air is only a very short distance away this round.

 

Yesterday morning:
http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3724_zpstuw2cvyq.jpg

 

 

This afternoon:

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3768_zpscqn80ehj.jpg

[Phil]

Oh GAWD..this run

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's not the Bering Sea Low that overwhelms the pattern, it's the consolidation an deep layer stacking of the PV that smacks down the NEPAC wavebreak allowing the Bering Sea Low to develop and progress eastward.

Go eat your onion. Lol

[Deweydog]

Second run in a row with a weekend snowstorm. Book it!

[Phil]

Go eat your onion. Lol

I've got at least 3 months to prepare.

[snow_wizard]

I really like the looks of the situation for Monday.  Technically a persistent baroclinic zone with pressure higher both to the north and to the south over the Puget Sound region.  Potential for a really good event there when combined with the Arctic front slowly sagging south.  Seeing the 18z much wetter is very encouraging.  The 18z also has a nice snow threat around day 8.

[Front Ranger]

It's not the Bering Sea Low that overwhelms the pattern, it's the consolidation an deep layer stacking of the PV that smacks down the NEPAC wavebreak allowing the Bering Sea Low to develop and progress eastward.

 

Whatever is causing it, it's ridiculous and probably overdone. 933mb at hour 186. 

 

[Phil]

Jim is trying to put a positive spin on this turd.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CAFFDB24-71D0-4643-842A-C97FC61B0CD3_zpscncwg1ja.gif

[snow_wizard]

Unrealistic expectations. Frustration after a terrible few years for snowfall. And some people just don't handle model riding well.

 

bull.jpg

 

It's just so crazy to be writing next week off when ever model shows 850s dropping at least to -10.  I certainly hope people wake up by tonight.

[snow_wizard]

Jim is trying to put a positive spin on this turd.

 

 

I'm talking about the short term which is undeniably nice for us.  A week of cold here is really good.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I really like the looks of the situation for Monday.  Technically a persistent baroclinic zone with pressure higher both to the north and to the south over the Puget Sound region.  Potential for a really good event there when combined with the Arctic front slowly sagging south.  Seeing the 18z much wetter is very encouraging.  The 18z also has a nice snow threat around day 8.

 

Yep and as I pointed out in my previous post the low level cold air is already in the Fraser Valley, not way north in the BC interior. The outflow never fully shuts off so when the gradients become favorable it won't take long for it to arrive.

[Phil]

[snow_wizard]

BTW...how confident is anyone what the models are showing for week 2 won't change at least 5 times in the coming days?

[Phil]

Sorry guys just having a little fun. I'm done now.

[Deweydog]

Jim is trying to put a positive spin on this turd.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CAFFDB24-71D0-4643-842A-C97FC61B0CD3_zpscncwg1ja.gif

The problem is you're talking about albino zebra migration habits when people simply want to go to the petting zoo.

 

KISS.

[snow_wizard]

 

 

That's what you saying a few weeks ago, and things came around fine.

 

Why not focus on the coming week?  The mood on here is bad enough as it is.

[snow_wizard]

The problem is you're talking about albino zebra migration habits when people simply want to go to the petting zoo.

 

KISS.

 

The problem is he's not focusing on the period that has a realistic shot at being good...the coming week.

[ShawniganLake]

South wind here this afternoon too. Partly sunny but only 35F. So not too much melting. Snow is falling off the trees though.

[snow_wizard]

Yep and as I pointed out in my previous post the low level cold air is already in the Fraser Valley, not way north in the BC interior. The outflow never fully shuts off so when the gradients become favorable it won't take long for it to arrive.

 

That is a fabulous point.  The cold is right there to fall into the north side of the baroclinic band.  This is potential big situation.  I remember this happened in November 1996...the cold was sitting up in your area and it slammed right in when the pressure gradient went to northerly.  It was like that for a time in Jan 1996 also.

[snow_wizard]

Things sure look different today, feels like spring. January 2012 was certainly better, but with 2 separate snow events, totaling maybe 5~6" this is the best we've had out of any of the years since. Sunday/Monday is now looking interesting; with cold air and widespread snowcover in the Fraser Valley/interior we won't have our usual challenge where the cold struggles to catch up with the moisture. Sufficiently cold air is only a very short distance away this round.

 

Yesterday morning:

 

 

This afternoon:

 

 

The continental air is staying within tightly drawn lines right now.  Fascinating setup.

[Perturbed Member]

I am seriously confused at the doom and gloom on here today. I think it's just disappointment carrying over from SEA/PDX not getting much snow Thursday.

 

The pattern looks cold upcoming for at least a week. The models fluctuate all the time and you're not going to get solid agreement on moisture this far in advance. I think it's ridiculous to be calling it quits until February. It's laughable.

 

Fair point, but as you said I think its just the underwhelming nature of Thursday for SEA and PDX along with models backpedaling to reality from some of the earlier absurdly cold runs. I think a single regionwide 2-4 inch or more event including both SEA and PDX is what is needed. I feel like that hasn't happened in a long time. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z is awesome. Tons of potential with the monday boundary. These days is sure is hard to get a juicy arctic front but this run shows just that. A few inches is a real possibility for puget sound and then cold all week with another event over the weekend maybe.

[snow_wizard]

18z is awesome. Tons of potential with the monday boundary. These days is sure is hard to get a juicy arctic front but this run shows just that. A few inches is a real possibility for puget sound and then cold all week with another event over the weekend maybe.

 

Monday is looking REALLY interesting all of a sudden.  If the 0z is as wet or wetter than the 18z this place will come to life for sure.  Possible big event for Seattle.  The earlier point that was made about the Arctic air already being so near is a big deal with this.  The baroclinicity being shown gives this big potential.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Monday is looking REALLY interesting all of a sudden.  If the 0z is as wet or wetter than the 18z this place will come to life for sure.  Possible big event for Seattle.  The earlier point that was made about the Arctic air already being so near is a big deal with this.  The baroclinicity being shown gives this big potential.

The available cold air being so close is everything with this set up. Cant tell you how many times I've watched the frazer valley observations just waiting for the cold to hurry its a** up while we have a low spinning off the coast. Honestly from the looks of the 18z it would be a pretty major snow for all of us.

[Jbolin]

The available cold air being so close is everything with this set up. Cant tell you how many times I've watched the frazer valley observations just waiting for the cold to hurry its a** up while we have a low spinning off the coast. Honestly from the looks of the 18z it would be a pretty major snow for all of us.

Are you kidding me, the near perfect combo of outflow and boundary moisture, SNOMG

[snow_wizard]

Looking at the Weatherbell maps for the precip totals...King County is the big winner for the time frame in question.  It shows some of it falling as snow, but could easily be undone given the close proximity of low level cold air.  This has a shot at being a classic.

[epiceast]

Hard to get mad at this pic.

Looks unskiable until 4k' Go 100 years back you could probably ski to the bottom of Methow valley in Decembers.

[Front Ranger]

Looking at the Weatherbell maps for the precip totals...King County is the big winner for the time frame in question.  It shows some of it falling as snow, but could easily be undone given the close proximity of low level cold air.  This has a shot at being a classic.

 

Looks like WRF shows a 3" bullseye right over Seattle.

[Winterdog]

Topped out at 38 today for my 7th sub-40 max in a row.  Tomorrow looks tough though.

[MikeBC]

The arctic air is so close to the border. The snowfall we are dealing with is definitely borderline. I am wondering when the arctic air will move forward to Bellingham. I find something interesting about the observations at the airport in Abbotsford, YXX. Their temperature dropped a bit as soon as the outflow increased a bit.

[TT-SEA]

South wind here this afternoon too. Partly sunny but only 35F. So not too much melting. Snow is falling off the trees though.

 

 

34 here.. with some light rain/snow mix at times.    Not much melting but definitely settling and falling off the trees.   Monday cannot come soon enough. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What a turd fest today has been

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

High wind watch for northern wa monday for 50 mph frazer winds! Sweet

[snow_wizard]

I think a lot of us are going to watching the temps in the lower Fraser River / Whatcom County over the next 24 hours. Potentially a lot riding on this.

[snow_wizard]

What a turd fest today has been

It was always advertised as such.