December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

Who'd have thunk, that nationally historic cold wave ain't lookin' so historic  (or national) now after a couple of runs.

[Jesse]

Who'd have thunk, that nationally historic cold wave ain't lookin' so historic (or national) now after a couple of runs.

What a shame. We are just living in different, milder, more pathetic times now.

 

I think sometimes the models forget what a warm period the earth is in in the long range. Once things get into the mid range reality usually catches up.

[MossMan]

Euro says no...

No to what?

[Jesse]

Euro says no... Just cold

Halleujah!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

No to what?

Just super cold and dry... Jesse will be thrilled!

[BLI snowman]

What a shame. We are just living in different, milder, more pathetic times now.

 

It's like we're seeing our old climate and future climate all rolled up into one crazy 36 hour model-riding binge.

[MossMan]

Just super cold and dry... Jesse will be thrilled!

Are we talking Monday or Thursday?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Here is Friday... No southern stream.

 

 

[kokaneekidz]

What a shame. We are just living in different, milder, more pathetic times now.

 

I think sometimes the models forget what a warm period the earth is in in the long range. Once things get into the mid range reality usually catches up.

That is a good thing. If we can keep it bottled up in the western BC area it is much better than it all sliding east and pushing up a ridge instead on the west coast...

[Jesse]

Just super cold and dry... Jesse will be thrilled!

It's good news for everyone. Trust me.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Are we talking Monday or Thursday?

Yes it looks like it ... I can not see precip maps but not seeing any low pressure.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's good news for everyone. Trust me.

If we come out of this without a snow event I will never trust you again.

[bainbridgekid]

WRF looks way drier than the Operational for Monday.

 

It had to run off the 1/2 degree grid instead of the usual 1/4 degree grid though. That could easily have messed it up completely.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Here is next Thursday... NO Snowstorm... Southern stream very suppressed. NOT even close to Lord  GuFuS

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like it wants to make us milder like the GFS just without snow... (Still waiting for it to progress) NOW that would be messed up. AND NO Jesse I will not trust you if that occurs. WE NEED SNOW Damit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[snow_wizard]

The Euro shows 850s dropping to -10 next week. Still cold.

 

The situation on Monday is tricky. Most models show moisture, but I think they are underestimating how much low level cold air is already so close to the area. I still think there will be snow in many parts of the Central Puget Sound.

[snow_wizard]

Some of the maps are updating painfully slow tonight. I'm still waiting for the detailed precip map for the Euro at day 5. It shows a low, but I'm not sure what that means for snow chances.

[Timmy Supercell]

Who'd have thunk, that nationally historic cold wave ain't lookin' so historic  (or national) now after a couple of runs.

 

Nothing is certain yet. I'm betting we'll still see runs hinting at cold again.

 

It's like we're seeing our old climate and future climate all rolled up into one crazy 36 hour model-riding binge.

 

^ and this is why it isn't certain at all at this point. Thanks BLI for pointing this out

[snow_wizard]

All in all the models are fine tonight IMO. A nice early season round of cold.

[snow_wizard]

Nothing is certain yet. I'm betting we'll still see runs hinting at cold again.

 

 

^ and this is why it isn't certain at all at this point. Thanks BLI for pointing this out

It's all fine.

[crf450ish]

I'll actually be in Spokane next Thursday, should I swing by for my $100 on the way back west?

No, actually swing by and check out the cold temps and snowpack at my house 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yep... similar end/longer term result as the GFS... moderates us to 40's and 50's in clown range (see below). showing in most models is the progression to break us out of the cold pattern, which I think Phil noted earlier as the larger scale was going to s**t. Maybe trying to save it to make January great again...

 

The EURO is showing limited moisture, No snowstorm on Weds/Thurs and not much action on Monday... The model battles wage. Seems like we need a mixture of both to get what we all want...

 

Here is 192 hours out... (clownage land)

 

 

 

[crf450ish]

Hopefully everyone gets a nice blanket of snow going into the cold week...and a snowstorm on Thursday would be fantastico! ☃☃☃⛸⛷

Thats a lot of emojis

[kokaneekidz]

Yep... similar end/longer term result as the GFS... moderates us to 40's and 50's in clown range (see below). showing in most models is the progression to break us out of the cold pattern, which I think Phil noted earlier as the larger scale was going to s**t. Maybe trying to save it to make January great again...

 

The EURO is showing limited moisture, No snowstorm on Weds/Thurs and not much action on Monday... The model battles wage. Seems like we need a mixture of both to get what we all want...

 

Here is 192 hours out... (clownage land)

 

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_9.png

No No NO... I see Chinook winds off the Rockies. A El Nino signature. this is not gonna happen. Wait for the reboot

[Timmy Supercell]

Now only tiny bits of snow left in Klamath Falls after all that rain and 40's a bit ago.

 

My yard is now 100% void of snow. But that is soon to change.

[crf450ish]

Still a complex pattern. At this point, it seems as if the models are STILL struggling to pick up on whats really going on. I'm no expert, but why else would one run depict crap and then another trend slightly better? Who knows, this time tomorrow night, this place might break another record for members logged in...

[Jesse]

00z Euro is worlds better than the 00z GFS. Praise Jesus.

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z Euro is worlds better than the 00z GFS. Praise Jesus.

To some.... All perspective. My personal perspective in the end is snow.... I am glad your happy.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well after todays model runs we know one thing. Cold/coolish for a while... Snow? NO fricken clue. Night 

[Jesse]

To some.... All perspective. My personal perspective in the end is snow.... I am glad your happy.

Mine too. And cold. If the 00z GFS ended up being the beginning of a trend (better Euro gives hope it was just a fluke) it would be bad news for both ultimately.

[Front Ranger]

It's never a good idea to put much stock in a single model run. It's especially a bad idea when the models have very little consistency, as is the case right now.

[bainbridgekid]

It's never a good idea to put much stock in a single model run. It's especially a bad idea when the models have very little consistency, as is the case right now.

I agree for the stuff past day 3.

 

We've reached the point for Monday though that each run is pretty important. We are talking about a potential event that starts in just 36 hours.

[Jesse]

It's never a good idea to put much stock in a single model run. It's especially a bad idea when the models have very little consistency, as is the case right now.

The voice of reason. Even better than Jesus!!

[luminen]

Incredible amount of moisture with the current system. It's been raining moderately all fracking day and at 33F-35F too. It was a good twice warning shot and now I'm looking forward to the 12" of snow coming here in January and maybe a third warning shot in a week.   

[HighlandExperience]

[Front Ranger]

I agree for the stuff past day 3.

 

We've reached the point for Monday though that each run is pretty important. We are talking about a potential event that starts in just 36 hours.

 

Sure. Most gnashing of teeth on here is for the stuff beyond day 3.

[snow_wizard]

I'll be damned if I can find a Euro precip map for the low it's showing at day 5. The model updates are totally hosed tonight.

[snow_wizard]

I really like the fact the models are showing light cross Cascade gradients after the really cold air arrives next week. That means full radiational cooling for almost everyone.

 

I wonder where Rob is. Is he totally burned out with all of the action lately?

[luvssnow_spokane]

I really like the fact the models are showing light cross Cascade gradients after the really cold air arrives next week. That means full radiational cooling for almost everyone.

 

I wonder where Rob is. Is he totally burned out with all of the action lately?

Just posts on his Facebook group now. To much to post in both places. Doubt we will see him much anymore.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Here comes the rain. It's pouring out right now, anyone in the Fraser Valley who ends up getting this as snow is going to get some serious accumulations. For those of us who still have snow left and aren't so lucky this will be a serious snow eater.