December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[epiceast]

CZ appears to be forming just west of Seattle.

This one counts for snowpoints guys! It's not a drill or a practice.

[Perturbed Member]

Ha ha!! Ok wishcaster.

 

Did you read it?

[HighlandExperience]

This one counts for snowpoints guys! It's not a drill or a practice.

Looks pathetic.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

50 miles more north and Seattle might be ok.

[chopper 918]

Did you read it?

Sure did. Did you? Not going to argue with you...carry on.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cancel your trip!

 

Yeah don't think I can miss my kids birthday.

 

Plus if I cancel the trip it'd totally bust. 

[Front Ranger]

Everything looks setup right where you'd want it right now, if you live from Salem to Kelso. 

 

Still too early to call it though...we've seen these things take last minute (within 24-36 hours) turns many times.

[luvssnow_spokane]

50 miles more north and Seattle might be ok.

Won't happen...

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Snowing lightly in Poulsbo.  Very lightly.  At this rate, by the first of the year, I'll have an inch!

[epiceast]

Looks pathetic.

Give it 2 more frames, just started forming.

[HighlandExperience]

Won't happen...

We need a miracle tommorow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Won't happen...

How many of these have you watched unfold? Most of the time in this situation seattle will get some snow.

[Perturbed Member]

Sure did. Did you? Not going to argue with you...carry on.

 

Not sure what you're thinking there is an argument about? Mark says models are all over the place, he is indeed clueless about what to forecast until the models come into agreement. Not sure how that can be interpreted in a drastically different way.

[Deweydog]

Cold Friday on the Euro. Whoever gets decent snowcover should see some pretty impressive lows.

[HighlandExperience]

[ShawniganLake]

All models look good for 0" up this way. At least my expectations are low.

[luvssnow_spokane]

How many of these have you watched unfold? Most of the time in this situation seattle will get some snow.

Can't even count how many. Most of the time I watch others get snow while we get screwed. But fingers crossed for maybe a measly inch at the most. Count on it!

[Timmy]

Euro is really looking colder this weekend. Jesse will be pleased.

[Heavy Snow]

Slower, but definitely further south compared to previous runs. Euro confirms south trend tonight, though it's still a bit further north than GFS.

EURO. WOW

 

 

It's about the same as the 12z. Moisture just doesn't make it further North which is surprising. It's under doing the snow amounts, it should be higher tomorrow. Still shows about 4"-5" for my location in Eastern PDX Metro.

[Winterdog]

The Euro looks a bit colder than 12Z at hr 96.  A colder pool east of the mountains for PDX to hold onto their snow (lousy bastards).

[luvssnow_spokane]

The Euro looks a bit colder than 12Z at hr 96. A colder pool east of the mountains for PDX to hold onto their snow (lousy bastards).

Another year we get to watch from afar.. 4 year and counting

[TT-SEA]

Pretty sweet deal for Oregon getting a decent snowstorm and then cold and sunny to follow!  

[chopper 918]

Not sure what you're thinking there is an argument about? Mark says models are all over the place, he is indeed clueless about what to forecast until the models come into agreement. Not sure how that can be interpreted in a drastically different way.

Dude, I was kidding...joke!! I was being sarcastic.

[Deweydog]

It's about the same as the 12z. Moisture just doesn't make it further North which is surprising. It's under doing the snow amounts, it should be higher tomorrow. Still shows about 4"-5" for my location in Eastern PDX Metro.

Kind of like it under-estimated the snow amounts last Thursday?

[Heavy Snow]

Exhausted after a fun day of model riding. Tomorrow will even be more intense. Snow is highly likely now in PDX Metro. Goodnight everybody.

[Perturbed Member]

GEM, ECMWF and GFS somewhat converging on a far enough south track for PDX to get something in the range of 1-3 inches maybe. Interesting to see a clear southward trend this close to the event. Hopefully they trend a bit north in the homestretch but it looks like the bullseye for this one could very well be south of here by a decent margin. We might not have much else but to hope that the low comes a bit further north like it often does in these setups. 

[TT-SEA]

Cold Friday on the Euro. Whoever gets decent snowcover should see some pretty impressive lows.

 

 

ECMWF shows 17 at PDX on Saturday morning... and 12 around Hillsboro.   

[Jesse]

Euro is really looking colder this weekend. Jesse will be pleased.

Yup. I am the only one here who likes cold this time of year. It's a lonely life.

[snow_wizard]

Looking pretty doubtful the Puget Sound region will see any meaningful snowfall Wednesday / Thursday.  The Euro still gets close enough that anything is possible.  As others have pointed out though...Christmas is in play.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty good arctic blast signature for 2nd and 3rd week of January on the EURO weeklies!!! Make January Great Again!

[snow_wizard]

The Euro and GFS both bottom out -11 850s for Seattle.  Cold.

[Winterdog]

Regardless of what happens Wed/Thurs, the fact there are a decent amount of 00z ensemble members between -5 and -10c right around Christmas is incredibly nice to see.

 

Sure things can, and will, change but the potential is there and we can't ask for much more than that right now.

Potential sucks.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty good arctic blast signature for 2nd and 3rd week of January on the EURO weeklies!!! Make January Great Again!

 

Indeed.  I also pointed out earlier the CFS has been all over that also.  I am hopeful everyone will get plenty of snow before we are done.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cold Friday on the Euro. Whoever gets decent snowcover should see some pretty impressive lows.

Why are you already bragging? You know it going to be you!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking pretty doubtful the Puget Sound region will see any meaningful snowfall Wednesday / Thursday.  The Euro still gets close enough that anything is possible.  As others have pointed out though...Christmas is in play.

 

Jim please see my hopeful posts about EURO weeklies

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The Euro and GFS both bottom out -11 850s for Seattle.  Cold.

Yawn...

[HighlandExperience]

Looking pretty doubtful the Puget Sound region will see any meaningful snowfall Wednesday / Thursday.  The Euro still gets close enough that anything is possible.  As others have pointed out though...Christmas is in play.

 

Glad your staying optimistic. You have to admit this is another hard pill for us central sound folks to swallow in the short term. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

The Euro and GFS both bottom out -11 850s for Seattle. Cold.

Goodie...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Question. Would you take a 3-6" storm this week or 1-3" of snow on Christmas day?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3-6 now.