December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[dairyd]

So what do you make of the GEPS showing the Thus-Fri low basically bifurcating and redeveloping as a low off SW BC/WWA?  Most of the other models have this second low kind of sitting there but the ensemble is giving it a fair bit of life and precip on Friday.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121212/gem-ens_mslp_pwat_wus_15.png

[chopper 918]

upload image

 

Mark said there are definitely snowflakes on the TV image and you cannot see them on a still shot because they are animated so he updated the pic with this one for the weenies about to jump.

[Front Ranger]

upload image

 

Mark said there are definitely snowflakes on the TV image and you cannot see them on a still shot because they are animated so he updated the pic with this one for the weenies about to jump.

 

[Front Ranger]

So what do you make of the GEPS showing the Thus-Fri low basically bifurcating and redeveloping as a low off SW BC/WWA?  Most of the other models have this second low kind of sitting there but the ensemble is giving it a fair bit of life and precip on Friday.

 

 

The NAM shows something similar.

[Timmy]

Hi-res nam shows precip south of pdx mostly...

[Front Ranger]

Hi-res nam shows precip south of pdx mostly...

 

Still shows 4-5" of snow for Portland.

 

Whatever, we're definitely overanalyzing at this point. Track of the low is much more important than precip output/type by any model.

[MossMan]

The guy who runs this site is an idiot.

I heard he moved to the east coast and forgot about us over here.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The guy who runs this site is an idiot.

I doubt that he is an idiot .... There is probably a reason I do not understand as I have developed and built enough websites to know there is reason beyond the obvious. I am just wondering if anything why there is such a low number of likes?  I assume abuse or server load?

[Timmy]

Doesn't look like it to me, front ranger.

[Deweydog]

We're f*cked.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Doesn't look like it to me, front ranger.

Burn it!! that is a fricken nightmare! I'm Done!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

[Goducks09]

Almost time for the GFS to f*** everything up!  Can't wait. 

[Timmy]

Doesn't look like it to me, front ranger.

Just noticed that the website header is misleading, that is the para.

[BLI snowman]

00z RPM coming out soon. Could very well be the run that sets the tone for this event.

[Timmy]

00z RPM coming out soon. Could very well be the run that sets the tone for this event.

lolz

[Arctic Front]

Was turning on the yard light to check for snow falling... happened to walk by the window on the other side of the house and saw a bright moon shining out there. So much for that.

 

Sat through 2 straight days of rain and the minute the air mass finally gets cold enough again the moisture disappears.

Obviously you won't find anyone that cares TT-SEA, you've already seen a lot of snow

[Front Ranger]

Doesn't look like it to me, front ranger.

 

Yeah, that's the para. I think this makes more sense based on what the model actually shows. Like I said, at this point the accumulation amounts any models shows is pretty much meaningless. Just fun to speculate.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Hey Dewey, when does the SSM The NWS use run?

[Dave]

Come on 00z.  Hold your ground!

[Deweydog]

Hey Dewey, when does the SSM The NWS use run?

It's a secret.

 

Duh.

[Timmy]

Come on 00z.  Hold your ground!

pen15

[HighlandExperience]

This is depressing. We need a miracle for King County.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's a secret.

 

Duh.

god I hate that... D**n nazi's

[Front Ranger]

This is depressing. We need a miracle for King County.

 

I mean, the NAM shows you getting 1-2" going into more cold weather and probably at least one more snow chance. Could be a lot worse. And it could end up a lot better. Would take far less than a miracle.

[HighlandExperience]

I mean, the NAM shows you getting 1-2" going into more cold weather and probably at least one more snow chance. Could be a lot worse. And it could end up a lot better. Would take far less than a miracle.

 

I'm happy we are getting at least that. I'm worried what the others show tonight!! 

[Jesse]

I'm just remembering how uncertain we still were with last Thursday's low at this time. There were 4-6" forecast flying just hours before the event!

[Front Ranger]

Come on 00z.  Hold your ground!

 

Looks like it's doing just that through hour 33. Almost identical to 18z.

[Deweydog]

I'm just remembering how uncertain we still were with last Thursday's low at this time. There were 4-6" forecast flying just hours before the event!

Wait... are you saying there's forecast uncertainty???

[HighlandExperience]

Looks like it's doing just that through hour 33. Almost identical to 18z.

Not liking how far south it's coming in at. Looks like it's going to crash into northern Cali.

[Front Ranger]

A little further north and faster at hour 42. Low almost ashore around CA/OR border.

 

EDIT: Not really further north much at all, just faster coming ashore. This is another south Willamette Valley special.

[Timmy Supercell]

Tuesday night into Wednesday could be a decent snow producer for Klamath Falls. Zone forecast calls for 4-5 inches overnight. For some reason Klamath Falls wasn't even mentioned in the Winter Storm Watch for this region (maybe an oversight?). Snow level drops to 3200 which would be the lowest so far this season.

[luvssnow_spokane]

going to be south... faster timing

[Deweydog]

Carbon copy.

[Front Ranger]

going to be south... faster timing

 

Yep. Though precip does make it a bit further north this run. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

UHG!!!!!! Secondary low splitting off?

 

 

[Goducks09]

D****T...waaay south.

[HighlandExperience]

going to be south... faster timing

Literally hits the border with Cali and goes due East. Seems odd to me.

[Dave]

Looking real nice.  I just hope it is cold enough.  I really wish my location was in my childhood home @ around 950 feet.  

[Goducks09]

Almost the entire state of Oregon get's a coating of snow at hour 54

[Deweydog]

Slightly different from last night's version.