December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Heavy Snow]

In other news, the 12z GFS-Para(upgraded version currently in beta) is slightly more south than the regular 12z GFS.

 

12 Regular GFS:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png

 

12z GFS-Para:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121212/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121212/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png

[Goducks09]

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well, in the end Portland has a better chance at getting snow than the puget sound if you take an average of most of the runs to far.  

[Heavy Snow]

RIP Dec 15 2016. Winter cancel?

 

Nope, there's a reason they call it the "Never Accurate Model".

[Goducks09]

Nope, there's a reason they call it the "Never Accurate Model".

It was half in jest. Lol

[Prairiedog]

I just saw his actual new post. I'm not surprised the WRF-GFS currently shows what it does. I hope he doesn't make a mistake of relying on it. It seems like it can't see the northern moisture. Take for instance the first snowstorm of Feb 2014. This is what the WRF-GFS showed a day out and what actually happened.

 

I think Mark is perfectly capable of what to rely on and not to.  Perhaps the very best Met we've had for this area.  I'd follow his thoughts long before I'd follow hype. 

[Heavy Snow]

It was half in jest. Lol

 

I know. 

[bainbridgekid]

Like last night, even Seattle is flirting with disaster on the NAM.

 

The drama continues...

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Oci1CuCht7E

It really feels like whichever model is the furthest North usually ends up being more right with these strengthening storms moving up the Coast. Even when it is the NAM.

 

I feel pretty good about this storm for Puget Sound. I'd say I'm at least as concerned about it going too far North than about it going so far South to leave us totally dry.

 

I also have some concerns on temperatures for near sea level even with the right track, but those details won't be ironed out till we see how much cold/dry air we have in place over the next 24-36 hours.

[Heavy Snow]

I think Mark is perfectly capable of what to rely on and not to.  Perhaps the very best Met we've had for this area.  I'd follow his thoughts long before I'd follow hype. 

 

He is the best Met in town. I'd follow the EURO and UKMET over the GFS any day of the week.

[Deweydog]

It really feels like whichever model is the furthest North usually ends up being more right with these strengthening storms moving up the Coast. Even when it is the NAM.

 

I feel pretty good about this storm for Puget Sound. I'd say I'm at least as concerned about it going too far North than about it going so far South to leave us totally dry.

 

I also have some concerns on temperatures for near sea level, but those details won't be ironed out till we see how much cold/dry air we have in place over the next 24-36 hours.

I always assume a southerly track is suspect. It's not universal and there is plenty of historical precedent for the more southerly solutions but it's just a matter of who will win out. The NAM has been pretty solid of late, and once again it was the first to start entertaining a stronger, warmer and hence more northerly track.

 

At this point I wouldn't mind seeing Seattle take the brunt of it. Jim is going to be insufferable if we get a few inches down here and Seattle gets very little. Take one for the team...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I always assume a southerly track is suspect. It's not universal and there is plenty of historical precedent for the more southerly solutions but it's just a matter of who will win out. The NAM has been pretty solid of late, and once again it was the first to start entertaining a stronger, warmer and hence more northerly track.

 

At this point I wouldn't mind seeing Seattle take the brunt of it. Jim is going to be insufferable if we get a few inches down here and Seattle gets very little. Take one for the team...

Good man right here...

[Heavy Snow]

NWS Portland's current thoughts:

 

 NWS Portland ‏@NWSPortland

"Snow will return Wednesday afternoon to evening then change to snow, sleet and freezing rain Thursday. Mostly rain south thursday"

 

http://i.imgur.com/t4WiQ3N.jpg

 

https://twitter.com/NWSPortland/status/808407650270674946

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I honestly have more faith in the NAM than Portland NWS right now. 

[Deweydog]

I honestly have more faith in the NAM than Portland NWS right now.

They have super secret models.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One of their mets posted last night a chart showing verification scores form last winter. The GFS was 4th, the French model was running a close 5th...We need more of that from their office.

[BLI snowman]

I think a track right near or south of Portland is believable. Which means a nasty warm layer aloft. NAM is particularly aggressive with this again.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I think a track right near or south of Portland is believable. Which means a nasty warm layer aloft. NAM is particularly aggressive with this again.

Been some time since we had a strong low take that tract.

[Prairiedog]

Jim Comey works for them and has all their important laptops in his possession and he's withheld valuable weather data.  38f tomorrow?  That has to come later in the day. Seems a little suspect to me. I do like the cool down for Saturday.  Interesting.

[Front Ranger]

One of their mets posted last night a chart showing verification scores form last winter. The GFS was 4th, the French model was running a close 5th...We need more of that from their office.

 

The French have a model?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At face value the NAM is essentially last Thursday's storm with a little more moisture.

[luvssnow_spokane]

They have super secret models.

the SSM?  It is rock solid!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The French have a model?

 

The Korean model is 3rd.

[luvssnow_spokane]

At face value the NAM is essentially last Thursday's storm with a little more moisture.

A lot more moisture...  just sayin

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot more moisture...  just sayin

 

True, but really PDX is in close danger of just rain/ZR with that track. 

[Winterdog]

18z NAM shows a track for Wed/Thu great for Puget Sound, borderline for Portland.

The 4k NAM shows rain though for most of the sound lowlands.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is about to start. We can either celebrate it or gnash our teeth to it!

[Deweydog]

At face value the NAM is essentially last Thursday's storm with a little more moisture.

4-6 inches!!!

[Front Ranger]

The 4k NAM shows rain though for most of the sound lowlands.

 

That's not what I see.

 

But I was just referring to the track, anyhow. Regardless of what models show as precip-type at this point, that would usually be a very good track for the Puget Sound.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The 4k NAM shows rain though for most of the sound lowlands.

disregard. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 4k NAM shows rain though for most of the sound lowlands.

Not going to happen.

[Dave]

Will someone post a map that has any optimism at all for snowflakes in Eugene?  I don't care if it is the Nicaragua model.   Otherwise, I'm heading to the liquor store early.  Again.

[Jesse]

So is the Euro just chopped liver now? Seems like there was pretty solid ensemble support for the 12z's more southerly track.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

GFS is about to start. We can either celebrate it or gnash our teeth to it!

Would be nice to see the low come in a bit stronger.. say a 921 mb.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So is the Euro just chopped liver now? Seems like there was pretty solid ensemble support for the 12z's more southerly track.

Bronze standard now?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Will someone post a map that has any optimism at all for snowflakes in Eugene?  I don't care if it is the Nicaragua model.   Otherwise, I'm heading to the liquor store early.  Again.

 

The 12z Euro and GFS. The NAM says go get hammered son.

[Deweydog]

So is the Euro just chopped liver now? Seems like there was pretty solid ensemble support for the 12z's more southerly track.

The Euro is fine, but it's been a little shaky lately with the fine details. Plus, ensemble support is typically irrelevant at this time frame. If the operational shifts, the ensembles will likely follow.

[epiceast]

37 here today. Snow is melting at a decent pace atm. Cold front band with heavy snow just stuck 5 miles to the northeast, that valley along I-90 is getting caked atm.

[bainbridgekid]

The 4k NAM shows rain though for most of the sound lowlands.

I definitely have some slight concerns about temperature even directly North of the low. The WRF from last night for example gave Seattle almost all rain despite the Operational giving them nearly a foot of snow.

 

It will really depend on how well the cold dry air becomes entrenched over the next 24-36 hours.

 

Like Dewey said . . . the drama continues.

[Timmy]

18z looks like it may look like the euro

[Dave]

18z looks encouraging through HR 54.  I'm going to the liquor store anyway.