December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luminen]

How on Earth did you pull that off?

 

The precip was just in the wrong area at the wrong time. Except the last night and the past two days when it was raining very thoroughly. 

[Heavy Snow]

12z GEM snow totals through Saturday 10am.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121212/126/snku_acc.us_nw.png

[van city]

12z JMA for Thursday.

[kokaneekidz]

The moderate radar echos just about to cross over to Mukilteo now. Should be snowing here within the half hour. Thanks mother nature for cooperating this time. It is much appreciated. Muah xoxo

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Well the radar is not totally representative of what's happening to your west.  Radar is totally void over Shawnigan Lake currently and its snowing as hard as it has all morning.  Probably low level outflow snow falling below the radar beam.  I have seen several inches fall here when the radar shows nothing in the past. 

 

It's let up a bit but still going pretty steady here. Probably nearing an inch so far.

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3777_zps0wdtjhme.jpg

[Deweydog]

12z JMA for Thursday.

That run should be put in an internment camp.

[Goducks09]

That run should be put in an internment camp.

 

It was ugly.

[Timmy]

It was ugly.

It was better than the 00z jma fwiw

[Skagit Weather]

Got some lovely 34 degree light rain here. Good luck with that precipitation blob moving south. I'm not so sure it will be anything other than rain.

[GobBluth]

Good news..both the 00z EPS and 06z GFS/GEFS trended stronger with the scandinavia-eurasia ridge in the d11-15 range.

 

That will promote wave driving and inflict damage on the PV in the long run if it continues..and if the PV/NAM can weaken enough then the next round of NPAC wavebreaking/off-equator WPAC forcing will establish a stronger EPO/GOA block and maybe lead to something nice.

Is this a change from prior runs? It seems the models were universal about 24 hours ago in crashing the block sooner rather than later.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nam will solve everything..

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z ensembles not quite as good, but still average or below through the end of the run.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nws just issued a Jim panic attack with a chance of melt down.

[bainbridgekid]

12z Euro has the low in almost the exact same spot as the GFS at hour 48.

 

Anyone else sh*tting bricks to see hour 72?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121212/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_3.png

[MossMan]

Got some lovely 34 degree light rain here. Good luck with that precipitation blob moving south. I'm not so sure it will be anything other than rain.

My house is currently under the moderate echo's but I'm at work right at the Skagit Snohomish border and its only drizzling out so not sure what's happening at home.

[MossMan]

Nws just issued a Jim panic attack with a chance of melt down.

Watch or Warning?

[Heavy Snow]

http://www.totalprosports.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/b5CMYo.gif

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Watch or Warning?

I think we passed watch already..

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is really cold for most of the week. Some serious low level cold...not surprising given the extreme cold moving through Canada.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12z Euro has the low in almost the exact same spot as the GFS at hour 48.

 

Anyone else sh*tting bricks to see hour 72?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121212/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_3.png

 

YESSS!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The WRF is really cold for most of the week. Some serious low level cold...not surprising given the extreme cold moving through Canada.

 

I still think we see snow mid week. You know more than anyone this crap always goes north more than shown.

[HighlandExperience]

I still think we see snow mid week. You know more than anyone this crap always goes north more than shown.

It only goes north to deprive us of snow.

[BLI snowman]

Euro a smidge north of the 00z. Better for Portland.

[Heavy Snow]

http://www.totalprosports.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/b5CMYo.gif

 

The feeling you get when all that hard work and sleepless nights barely getting any sleep model riding is about to pay off and seeing the 12z EURO hammer you with 8" to 9" Snow by Thursday 10am!

[MossMan]

I think we passed watch already..

Think we will just stick with an Advisory since we are so early in the season yet.

[Phil]

The 12z GEFS was better than the 06z in the extended range, pattern wise. Better agreement on the Scandinavia/Eurasia ridge, which will degrade the PV/NAM over time (verbatim). The end result is a weaker Arctic Vortex/+NAM even in the early stages.

 

If that ridge can propagate closer to the pole and sustain there for awhile..game on.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CFE6AE4F-3D6E-48FB-9632-8B9CCCE5F09D_zpsxqb63xw9.png

[TT-SEA]

Just a mere 8-9 inches of snow in Portland per 12Z ECMWF on Wednesday night.  

[TT-SEA]

And 1-2 inches in Seattle as well.  

[MossMan]

Just a mere 8-9 inches of snow in Portland per 12Z ECMWF on Wednesday night.  

It will trend north and the Puget sound area will get the 8-9" 

Buried.

[HighlandExperience]

It will trend north and the Puget sound area will get the 8-9"

Buried.

Over the next few runs it will continue too trend north by 75 miles.

[Phil]

Meanwhile, the extended range GGEM ensembles are not nearly as bullish with that ridge and would suggest unabated PV strengthening for the foreseeable future, so the longer term prognosis would be uglier. They're also much farther west with the tropical convection, closer to 120E, which is a huge negative..though there's clearly some disagreement in there.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A146ECFA-25C0-4B92-88D7-F2BEBE45F867_zps5mpe3u5q.png

[Goducks09]

The feeling you get when all that hard work and sleepless nights barely getting any sleep model riding is about to pay off and seeing the 12z EURO hammer you with 8" to 9" Snow by Thursday 10am!

 

What did we get back in Feb 2014?  About the same if I recall?

[MossMan]

Meanwhile, the extended range GGEM ensembles are not nearly as bullish with that ridge and would suggest unabated PV strengthening for the foreseeable future, so the longer term prognosis would be uglier. They're also much farther west with the tropical convection, closer to 120E, which is a huge negative.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A146ECFA-25C0-4B92-88D7-F2BEBE45F867_zps5mpe3u5q.png

So what you are saying is that there is no model agreement for the extended and we could either have a weak PV which is good for us, or a strong PV which is bad for us but we really have no clue yet, did I get the gist of it?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

And 1-2 inches in Seattle as well.  

I still think it will be a solid event Seattle south. 2 or 3 inches around Seattle is solid in my book.

[Heavy Snow]

What did we get back in Feb 2014?  About the same if I recall?

 

It was 3 separate storms so I forgot the exact total when it was all said and done. Here's a graphic of the first Winter Storm.

 

[snow_wizard]

The 12z GFS has cold shots through the entire run...sans a brief break early in week 2. Interesting to note the parallel 6z run shows Fraser outflow late in week 2 also. Perhaps GOA high pressure will be the norm this winter. It does happen sometimes.

 

Miraculously the 12z ECMWF does show snow for this area.

[snow_wizard]

I still think it will be a solid event Seattle south. 2 or 3 inches around Seattle is solid in my book.

Maybe.

[snow_wizard]

Over the next few runs it will continue too trend north by 75 miles.

Even 50 would help a lot.

[Prairiedog]

Thanks for posting!  He did nail last week's lackluster "storm", so this is encouraging.  It's going to be all about that low placement and strength...

Actually he didn't nail it.  It looked like he was going to nail it but there was more snow and certainly more ice than he predicted and it didn't warm up nearly as quickly as he thought. 

[liquidsnow]

Someone here said they would smoke a pinecone if it doesn't snow in Seattle?

 

It's written and has to be done and I expect a youtube video!