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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

stuffradio

By stuffradio
in West of the Rockies

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MR.SNOWMIZER
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Been a emotional day.. First time in 27 years i went and picked a Christmas tree without my woman but me and my son made the best of it and had a good time. Its been a real test as a father dealing wi

jaya
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Well, I don't have access to everything that I'd like to look at. With that said, tonight will be tricky with the strong offshore flow. I've seen it go both ways. In one case in 2014 I believe, models

Gradient Keeper
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I wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you can find joy and happiness. Appreciate the ones you have with you during this Holiday season.   http://i.imgur.com/fhWgu21.jpg

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Prairiedog Community Regular

Prairiedog

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Yep, we are certainly in a good position for now but we still have a bit more 48 hours to go and the models never cease to amaze in their ability to f*ck you over even in the last second so we never can get too comfortable. 

 

Mark Nelsen posted something new on this blog which basically amounted to: "You might just get flurries or you might get a foot of snow, we will wait and see". He's going to wait for the 00z runs Tuesday night before he gives his real final forecast. Smart guy.

Yea, he was pretty general and not on any bandwagon yet.  Probably pretty smart at this point.  He knows better than anyone how this game is played.  Way too early to be calling it  as we know how quickly these bust.  Models are fickle and pick up on stuff we can't even imagine.  Wishcasting is for newcomers, kids, and well some of us dreamers.  Hopefully we nail it but until we get a lot closer, I'm trying hard to temper my enthusiasm.  On paper it looks good.  Rocks and scissors wreck paper.  Patience has to be the rule. 

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North_County Rising Star

North_County

Posted
Posted

I'm aware that some of our more snow-deprived members don't want to hear it, but conditions in north Whatcom County have deteriorated a bit as we've moved through the day. Steady NE winds are making drifting snow a driving hazard between Lynden and Sumas.

 

I haven't ventured to the northwest corner of the county (Ferndale, Blaine, Birch Bay), but I was hearing this morning that ice was a major problem out there.

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Heavy Snow Newbie

Heavy Snow

Posted
Posted

Yep, we are certainly in a good position for now but we still have a bit more 48 hours to go and the models never cease to amaze in their ability to f*ck you over even in the last second so we never can get too comfortable. 

 

Mark Nelsen posted something new on this blog which basically amounted to: "You might just get flurries or you might get a foot of snow, we will wait and see". He's going to wait for the 00z runs Tuesday night before he gives his real final forecast. Smart guy.

 

I just saw his actual new post. I'm not surprised the WRF-GFS currently shows what it does. I hope he doesn't make a mistake of relying on it. It seems like it can't see the northern moisture. Take for instance the first snowstorm of Feb 2014. This is what the WRF-GFS showed a day out and what actually happened.

 

or_snow48-48-0000.gif

feb_6_snow_nws.png

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted

18z NAM holding the low back further West through hour 54. Looks like it will come further North from the 12z.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121218/namconus_ref_frzn_wus_42.png

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

I'm aware that some of our more snow-deprived members don't want to hear it, but conditions in north Whatcom County have deteriorated a bit as we've moved through the day. Steady NE winds are making drifting snow a driving hazard between Lynden and Sumas.

 

I haven't ventured to the northwest corner of the county (Ferndale, Blaine, Birch Bay), but I was hearing this morning that ice was a major problem out there.

I have a friend that lives up there and she posted pics of the snow drifts up against her house...amazing that is happening only 35 or so minutes north of where I am (35 degree drizzle)

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

I just saw his actual new post. I'm not surprised the WRF-GFS currently shows what it does. I hope he doesn't make a mistake of relying on it. It seems like it can't see the northern moisture. Take for instance the first snowstorm of Feb 2014. This is what the WRF-GFS showed a day out and what actually happened.

 

or_snow48-48-0000.gif

feb_6_snow_nws.png

 

I honestly don't think this has much to do with this event...At all really. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted

Yep. 18z NAM buries Puget Sound.

 

I'm honestly still slightly more worried about this thing shifting too far North than staying too far South. And that's for Seattle.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Randyc321 Mentor

Randyc321

Posted
Posted

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121218/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_46.pngscrew the nam

 

Stupid question I know.  But, here goes.  What do the graduations on the snow legend denote?  That can't be inches.  Cm?

Most of my posts are not answered, but will somebody please answer this one.

Thanks

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted

Stupid question I know.  But, here goes.  What do the graduations on the snow legend denote?  That can't be inches.

Most of my posts are not answered, but will somebody please answer this one.

Thanks

It's a prediction of intensity on radar. This is measured by dBZ which is essentially how much precipitation the radar beam is hitting over a given area.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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