December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Perturbed Member]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121206/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_14.png

 

GFS sticking to its guns for you guys up north.

[Gradient Keeper]

Real interesting changes on 6z GFS compared to 00z. In the short-mid range Wednesday-Thursday the low is further south, less WAA, likely good snows from PDX to maybe Seattle(Probably not) I am not buying that abrupt turn north from Cape Blanco north to Ocean Shores. Looks wonky. A solution more like the NAM taking the low south of PDX and remaining there seems more plausible. 44 out of 50 EPS members do the same thing. There were other differences on this run too. Compared to 00z The second low moving into GOA is weaker. The GOA/AK block stronger remains 'upright' tilts favorably. The southeast/eastern US ridge stronger. 6z has a much deeper impressive low-level arctic air mass in place over the Columbia Basin beyond day 10. That could possibly help out PDX more than once over the next week or os.

 

Oh, and beyond day 10 we see a stronger block over GOA, cold trough digging south out of Yukon right down the BC Coast and a very strong ridge over the eastern half of the US extending up into southeast Canada. Cold air moves south quickly and Snow begins all across the area Christmas evening. Maybe the stronger block on 6z is due to what Juneau NWS said that the initial trough diving into the block is weak and splits. Maybe models are just now picking up on this starting with 6z GFS. Which means future runs could show a stronger block west of 145-150 W. Something to keep an eye on with 12z runs today. Their new AFD says the block doesn't break down until the weekend. Uhhh. IF that were true that could be a game changer for us keeping colder air around, especially Gorge east.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS(Ensembles) Surface temp anomaly

 

Day 5

WOW! MUCH colder than 00z and doing some studying of 6 previous runs, it's colder than any of those too. A strong blast plunges into Columbia Basin/Gorge east. I wasn't expecting that.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121206/gfs-ens_T2ma_wus_21.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121206/gfs-ens_T2ma_wus_22.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Haven't seen it snow this hard since February 2014. It's ABOUT TIME. 

 

Literally watched the snow line move south with TWO EYES. Drove north and south on the guide and watched the temp changes and found the snow/rain line around 10pm. It was moving south at about a mile per 20 minutes. Pretty fascinating to see. Finally changed to snow here about a half hour ago and now it's dumping. Cold air progressing south much quicker now. REALLY hoping Lake Whatcom can score tonight. Once they change over their totals should stack up pretty good.

 

EDIT: WINTER WONDERLAND HERE. 

 

I also feel the pain most are feeling right now. It sucks. Honestly this morning I just assumed we'd get screwed up here and would run out of moisture. Didn't follow the models at all today. 

That's awesome I am glad you're getting snow. Take pics or videos. It doesn't bother me that you're scoring big time and down here, not so much. The only pain I feel is in my knee and its D**n severe. It's why I'm up doing analysis.

[ShawniganLake]

Outflow reached southern Vancouver island around 1am. NE winds gusting to 30mph+ at YYJ. Rain has turned to snow here and is starting to accumulate. The heaviest band has been to my north. Looks like several inches between Duncan and parksville.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS 850mb Ensembles

Portland, Seattle, Vancouver BC, Yakima

 

Improvement and note the Op was an outlier through day 6. For PDX mean temp down nicely as precip arrives/increases gives a higher chance it remains snow throughout as strong east wind continues.

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

 

 

Vancouver, BC

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

 

 

Yakima(Using this to show depth of cold air across Columbia Basin)

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

[MossMan]

6z GFS 850mb Ensembles

Portland, Seattle, Vancouver BC, Yakima

 

Improvement and note the Op was an outlier through day 6. For PDX mean temp down nicely as precip arrives/increases gives a higher chance it remains snow throughout as strong east wind continues.

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

 

 

Vancouver, BC

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

 

 

Yakima(Using this to show depth of cold air across Columbia Basin)

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

Thanks for posting all of that DJ, still looking very promising!!

[Weather101]

Cowboys ..... Oh wait we Seahawks fans!!! Bandwagon !!!!! It's snowing tho here lol

[Goducks09]

Sorta important 12z runs today. Would love to see agreement with low placement south of PDX!

[The Swamp]

Is anyone concerned wed/thurs could be rain Seattle and South?

 

Too me it looks like a quick transition to rain.

[westcoastexpat]

Surprise convergence zone overnight lead to me waking up to 4" of new snow... talk about a lucky bounce.

[Tyler Mode]

For anyone interested, here are pictures from around Portland during the ice storm.

 

https://www.facebook.com/tyler.mode.9/media_set?set=a.10210958370788876.1073741846.1641879514&type=3&pnref=story

[TT-SEA]

32.5 and raining here.   

[Deweydog]

Welcome to Menstrual Monday. Regardless of the outcomes, computer-generated hormones will be at a heavy flow.

[TT-SEA]

This mother ******* goddamn climate can suck my mother ******* cock! Furthermore this piece of s**t location I live in can go **** itself.

 

 

Have I ever said how much I loathe this ******* place?

 

 

There is no question and little doubt that this is negative attitude is quite perplexing and confounding with all the goodies ahead.  

[Deweydog]

So the 12z NAM says heads back toward Team Jesse compared to the 6z...

[Parksvillewx]

Rain changed over to snow around 11pm last night. Only got about 1/2" before the precip moved to far south.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Does anybody know why the WRF has been doing so poorly with the recent set-up? It doesn't even show any precipitation for Northern Whatcom County during the next 24 hours, but it is obviously snowing up there currently.

 

12-12-16Rain.

A simple fix for the model woes.  Just rename the model to WTF.

 

Should never hear this question again.  Problem solved!

[ShawniganLake]

Snowing lightly here, about 1.5" overnight.

[Chewbacca Defense]

I didn't have time to measure the snow because I had to get my daughter to work, but if I had to guess, I would say I got about 2".

 

 

There is noticeably less snow down the hill from me where I work (Barkley area) but still a decent amount

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Amazed to see some hinting toward cold weather potentially lasting well into week 2. There is some chance of an MJO wave emerging in a favorable area for cold troughing in the NW so it's not out of the question.

 

It does appear the more serious cold later this week is still on. Whether the Central Puget Sound sees snow is an entirely different question though.

[MossMan]

Amazed to see some hinting toward cold weather potentially lasting well into week 2. There is some chance of an MJO wave emerging in a favorable area for cold troughing in the NW so it's not out of the question.

 

It does appear the more serious cold later this week is still on. Whether the Central Puget Sound sees snow is an entirely different question though.

Should be a "fun" week of tracking things anyway!

Currently 37 degrees and raining here...a not so fun start of the weeks tracking....looks like our northerly neighbors are having a good time though!

[Deweydog]

There is no question and little doubt that this is negative attitude is quite perplexing and confounding with all the goodies ahead.

We've been here 11+ years and this mania perplexes and confounds you?

[crf450ish]

For anyone interested, here are pictures from around Portland during the ice storm.

 

https://www.facebook.com/tyler.mode.9/media_set?set=a.10210958370788876.1073741846.1641879514&type=3&pnref=story

Those are neat photos. Ice is very cool looking but easily the most difficult to deal with. Breaks trees and stuff. No bueno.

[crf450ish]

Apparently I'm at my high temp already for today. Its 23 here. 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-118.31197529578233&lat=47.98600292243347#.WE7A9neZOHp

[snow_wizard]

There is no question and little doubt that this is negative attitude is quite perplexing and confounding with all the goodies ahead.

We'll see. I can easily see ending up with almost nothing here.

[snow_wizard]

Should be a "fun" week of tracking things anyway!

Currently 37 degrees and raining here...a not so fun start of the weeks tracking....looks like our northerly neighbors are having a good time though!

The wind is supposed to shift later. If so....you never know.

[snow_wizard]

Just to set the record straight...I hope I'm wrong and the Seattle area gets a ton of snow this week. To me it just feels like getting a decent snow in this area right now is like trying to pound a square peg into round hole (peg and hole made out of titanium).

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Didn't get any snow overnight here, the precipitation stayed furter north. The outflow is rolling in now though, down to 32.5 with snow sticking to non-paved surfaces. I have a feeling getting enough precipitation will be our biggest problem now. This week could end up very similar to last week with an inch of snow turning to ice early on, if we're lucky (looking at the radar we probably won't even get that).

[snow_wizard]

Didn't get any snow overnight here, the precipitation stayed furter north. The outflow is rolling in now though, down to 32.5 with snow sticking to non-paved surfaces. I have a feeling getting enough precipitation will be our biggest problem now. This week could end up very similar to last week with an inch of snow turning to ice early on, if we're lucky (looking at the radar we probably won't even get that).

We need a good region wide event. It sucks balls that some people score while others get little or nothing.

[luminen]

No snow here. Sucks to see areas south and especially east have been getting so much snow and nothing but cold heavy rain here.

[TT-SEA]

Enjoying watching the snow dump down on Barkley Village in Bellingham right now.... too bad my parents don't like the snow.  

 

http://barkleyvillage.com/web-cameras/

[luvssnow_spokane]

Just to set the record straight...I hope I'm wrong and the Seattle area gets a ton of snow this week. To me it just feels like getting a decent snow in this area right now is like trying to pound a square peg into round hole (peg and hole made out of titanium).

Thank you for keeping it real... agreed it feels like a fading long shot.

[BLI snowman]

Jesus, Portland NWS going all in. So dumb.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Enjoying watching the snow dump down on Barkley Village in Bellingham right now.... too bad my parents don't like the snow.  

 

http://barkleyvillage.com/web-cameras/

 

They should get together with Timmy Supercell for the holidays

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jesus, Portland NWS going all in. So dumb.

 

Jesus, Portland NWS going all in. So dumb.

 

Yeah its kind of insane. The zone forecast for my area Wednesday night says 5-9".

[snow_wizard]

No snow here. Sucks to see areas south and especially east have been getting so much snow and nothing but cold heavy rain here.

How on Earth did you pull that off?

[BLI snowman]

12z GFS back to looking a little more realistic with the low track, though.

[snow_wizard]

Thank you for keeping it real... agreed it feels like a fading long shot.

The sad thing is (historically speaking) this area isn't as bad as you seem to think it is, but we are undeniably in a bad rut right now. Nothing seems to work for us since January (note January) 2012. We had numerous chances in 2013-14 and the past week or so. No cigar.

[BLI snowman]

Also shows this mainly being a Wednesday event.