December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Heavy Snow]

Big snowstorm on the GEM, btw.

 

Yeah, just saw it. Looks nice.

[Jesse]

Not many. 1963, 1964, 1978, 1983, and that's about it. February 1989 had pretty solid cloudcover on its coldest days.

 

Four times is more than zero.

[Front Ranger]

This block hasn't been decapitated yet.

 

Think about it this way. The block gets progressively decapitated while zonal winds increase in the upper levels as the PV strengthens. This progression results in the flattening of the block and allows the Bering Sea Vortex/+EPO to develop and attempt to couple with the PV aloft.

 

That's not how decapitation works.

[crf450ish]

Allot more peeps viewing this topic tonight compared to last night.

[Phil]

That's not how decapitation works.

Depends how many heads you have. In this case each wave crest is progressively more equatorward.

[Jesse]

I'm too lazy to find any sources, but I believe Detroit actually averages more snow per year than Bend, which is pretty shocking.  Bend climate is obviously still much better, regardless.  

 

I see your snow stats and remembered that Silver Falls State Park actually keeps good statistical information.  Any idea what the max depth was in the winter of 2008/2009.  It's always interested me and I've heard 6 foot depth at Detroit and 8 foot depth at Idanha.  Both of which are shocking.

 

I think 2007/08 is actually when things got really crazy for that part of the Cascade Foothills. Roofs collapsing in Detroit, etc.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, just saw it. Looks nice.

 

Also stays colder for longer afterwards.

[Deweydog]

Where did u live in 1990?

Coast.

[Front Ranger]

Depends how many heads you have. 

 

I have two...

[Dave]

At least you had that 2012 and 2014 event, PDX has been shafted left and right over and over again. Is this shitty place even capable of getting a real snowstorm anymore?

Dec 2013 was possibly even better.  6 inch snowstorm followed by around 4 - 5 days of subfreezing temps, including -10F!.  That being said, there hasn't been a single snowflake here for almost 3 years.  I don't think anyone else in this forum can say that.  Blech.

[Phil]

I have two...

Keep thinking that.

[Jesse]

Big snowstorm on the GEM, btw.

Come on Dave Thomas!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

With A Little Luck, We Can Help It Out

We Can Make This Whole D**n Thing Work Out

[BLI snowman]

Next week never looked all that solid. Highs in the mid 30s and no consistent signal for widespread snow. Nothing that should have really let anyone's guard down. Speaking as objectively as possible, if it falls through then it isn't a huge surprise.

[MossMan]

The updated run of the 00z GEM looks good. Huge ice storm for the Willamette Valley, snow/ice for PDX Metro and snow SW WA North. Onto the 00z EURO.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121200/156/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121200/108/zr_acc.us_nw.png

Like I said...buried.

[Dave]

I think 2007/08 is actually when things got really crazy for that part of the Cascade Foothills. Roofs collapsing in Detroit, etc.

Good call.  Found this:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/oregon-town-bur/13975

[luvssnow_spokane]

Dec 2013 was possibly even better. 6 inch snowstorm followed by around 4 - 5 days of subfreezing temps, including -10F!.

That being said, there hasn't been a single snowflake here

for almost 3 years. I don't think anyone else in this forum can say that. Blech.

We got totally missed on that event up here in the puget sound ... I have seen less than 2inches of snow since 2012...

[DareDuck]

I'm too lazy to find any sources, but I believe Detroit actually averages more snow per year than Bend, which is pretty shocking. Bend climate is obviously still much better, regardless.

It definitely doesn't snow amount in total snow, but it snows a small amount a fairly often. So someone like me who grew never seeing snow at my house, seeing snow fall or even 1" accumulations appeases me more than most. At least for now.

[BLI snowman]

Four times is more than zero.

 

No arguments there. We know that our deteriorating track record is well documented at this point.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm too lazy to find any sources, but I believe Detroit actually averages more snow per year than Bend, which is pretty shocking.  Bend climate is obviously still much better, regardless.  

 

I see your snow stats and remembered that Silver Falls State Park actually keeps good statistical information.  Any idea what the max depth was in the winter of 2008/2009.  It's always interested me and I've heard 6 foot depth at Detroit and 8 foot depth at Idanha.  Both of which are shocking.

 

Snowfall data can be spotty at Silver Falls, but you can glean some good info from it. Max depth at Silver Falls in December 2008 was 32".

 

However, the 6' at Detroit was in January 2008. I am not sure how much was on the ground here, but Silver Falls did record 47.5" on the final 4 days of the month. Living here for over 5 years now, I get a little more snow than the park, but Detroit definitely gets more snow than me. Cold air gets trapped better in that canyon IMO. 

[MossMan]

We got totally missed on that event up here in the puget sound ... I have seen less than 2inches of snow since 2012...

I got a few inches in Dec. 2013...just didn't last very long.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good call.  Found this:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/oregon-town-bur/13975

 

My neighbors up here said nothing in the past 30 years compares to January 2008 for snowfall, it is the only time they had to shovel their roofs. 

[Perturbed Member]

GEM looks good for SEA-PDX but PDX is on the very bottom edge. Any further northward movement and we'd be out. Which more or less means we are f*cked. Hoping euro looks nothing like the terrible 00z GFS. 

[Phil]

00z GFS takes the PV to over +2SDs. Yuck.

[Phil]

Here's a pretty good thundersnow and blizzard video for those still needing a fix. From the Boxing Day blizzard of December 2010.

 

Fast forward to 1 minute.

 

[MossMan]

00z GFS takes the PV to over +2SDs. Yuck.

How's the WHAM doing?

[Deweydog]

How's the WHAM doing?

 

 

Never better!

[Perturbed Member]

Dec 2013 was possibly even better.  6 inch snowstorm followed by around 4 - 5 days of subfreezing temps, including -10F!.  That being said, there hasn't been a single snowflake here for almost 3 years.  I don't think anyone else in this forum can say that.  Blech.

 

Understandably frustrating, but yeah PDX has had 1 actual snow event in 7-8 years now, ridiculous. Everything always looks like it is coming together nicely and then the models pull some stupid bullshit like this. The lows always head north to give WA the goods. 

[Deweydog]

I think we need to hold off on judgment until the analogs come out.

[Phil]

How's the WHAM doing?

Too tired to think of a retort. Meh.

[dairyd]

Light snow now just started.  Not a lot of wind yet.  Just below 32.

[MossMan]

 

Never better!

D**n straight! The Euro is going to wake us up before we go go...to bed.

[Heavy Snow]

Also stays colder for longer afterwards.

Like I said...buried.

 

Yeah, also the updated run of the 00z UKMET(2nd best model in the World) just came in. Looks similar to 12z EURO. Hard to tell due to just seeing hours 72 and 96.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/TS_TS_PN_072_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

[Jesse]

If this thing busts and January ends up being another crapper too, this place is gonna get pretty bad.

[Front Ranger]

 

Never better!

 

If that doesn't cheer people up, nothing will.

[Perturbed Member]

00z NAVGEM IS RUNNING!

[MossMan]

If this thing busts and January ends up being another crapper too, this place is gonna get pretty bad.

Fred will just have to take the server out back and "Office Space" it will be so bad.

[chopper 918]

If this thing busts and January ends up being another crapper too, this place is gonna get pretty bad.

 

Oh it will, but by March 15, the pattern will come around to what we're looking for!  

[Jesse]

If that does't cheer people up, nothing will.

I don't know. Phil just posted a video of an east coast thunderblizzard that is sure to invert some frowns!

[Deweydog]

If this thing busts and January ends up being another crapper too, this place is gonna get pretty bad.

It'll be Jim-centric. Depends on whether he'd just bow out or have an old school temper tantrum.

 

I doubt we make it through this winter without at least a couple more opportunities, though.