December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

It'll be Jim-centric. Depends on whether he'd just bow out or have an old school temper tantrum.

 

I doubt we make it through this winter without at least a couple more opportunities, though.

Hard to believe it's only Dec.11, seems like we have had an entire winter season of meltdowns already!

[Front Ranger]

It'll be Jim-centric. Depends on whether he'd just bow out or have an old school temper tantrum.

 

I doubt we make it through this winter without at least a couple more opportunities, though.

 

We've already seen people bow out and have old school temper tantrums, and Christmas is still 2 weeks away. At this rate, there will only be a hardy few left by January.

[Deweydog]

Hard to believe it's only Dec.11, seems like we have had an entire winter season of meltdowns already!

PTSD from warning shots.

 

Our lil' weather militia is pretty soft.

[Phil]

I don't know. Phil just posted a video of an east coast thunderblizzard that is sure to invert some frowns!

Except mine. That f**ker whiffed me last minute.

 

You think you have it bad? Try having blizzard watches hoisted 36hrs before an event only to have the rug pulled and get nothing. Went from expecting 2ft of snow and 70mph winds to absolutely nothing within one model cycle. Nightmare.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Only 8 weeks left for anything good to happen.

[Timmy Supercell]

Acually could end up being a windstorm.

 

Blizzard. Count on it. It's gonna be great.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Only 8 weeks left for anything good to happen.

Actually only 2 weeks ... nothing happens in January anymore. The pattern will setup in March

[Perturbed Member]

FWIW 

 

00z NAVGEM. Similar to 18z run, trended a bit south from the 12z earlier today. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016121200/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_14.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

EURO IS RUNNIN!!!!!!!  For the emotionally unstable you may want to ignore this one.

[Heavy Snow]

FWIW 

 

00z NAVGEM. Similar to 18z run, trended a bit south from the 12z earlier today. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016121200/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_14.png

 

Cool! Let's go KING EURO!

[Front Ranger]

EURO IS RUNNIN!!!!!!!  For the emotionally unstable you may want to ignore this one.

 

It's already getting ugly...Alaskan block undergoing progressive, messy decapitations.

[MossMan]

EURO IS RUNNIN!!!!!!! For the emotionally unstable you may want to ignore this one.

That's all of us.

[Deweydog]

It's already getting ugly...Alaskan block undergoing progressive, messy decapitations.

Islamic militants hitching a ride on that 120E convection.

[MossMan]

It's already getting ugly...Alaskan block undergoing progressive, messy decapitations.

Between the decapitations, the WHAM's, the E:120's or whatever the hell it is...we are all doomed.

[Timmy]

Up until 3 days ago or so tonight would have been a 4-6" snowfall for me. If I were one degree cooler or about 500' higher this coild have been my biggest snow event.

[Front Ranger]

Islamic militants hitching a ride on that 120E convection.

 

Trump needs to hurry the hell up and make the tropical forcings great again.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Between the decapitations, the WHAM's, the E:120's or whatever the hell it is...we are all doomed.

I hear it is also causing the extinction of Giraffe's... Which is a sign that the end is near.

[Front Ranger]

Slightly slower progression of cold air south at 24 hours vs GFS.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The euro will be worse than a barry Manilow concert.

[bainbridgekid]

Looking pretty d*mn snowy just North of Lynden.

 

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/nw/539vc01467.jpg

[MossMan]

Looking pretty d*mn snowy just North of Lynden.

 

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/nw/539vc01467.jpg

That only needs to travel an hour south.

[Bham_Guy]

Looking pretty d*mn snowy just North of Lynden.

 

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/nw/539vc01467.jpg

 

Snowing south of Lynden too. Wiser Lake is seeing snow now.

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 00z EURO shows landfall along the OR/CA border on Wednesday afternoon.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016121200/072/850tw.conus.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016121200/072/sfcmslp.conus.png

[Deweydog]

Euro appears to be sticking to its guns for another 12 hours...

[Perturbed Member]

Euro 00z

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016121200/072/sfcmslp.conus.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

Snowing south of Lynden too. Wiser Lake is seeing snow now.

Getting colder up north... North winds picking up a little.

 

 

[Heavy Snow]

Euro appears to be sticking to its guns for another 12 hours...

 

Or GooFus is just behind.

[Front Ranger]

Euro appears to be sticking to its guns for another 12 hours...

 

Yup, much weaker and nothing like the GFS with the low. Just need some sort of compromise.

[luvssnow_spokane]

This will help calm some nerves...  Euro keeps low on a better track for Portland.

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yup, much weaker and nothing like the GFS with the low. Just need some sort of compromise.

Yeah something inbetween would be awesome!!

[TT-SEA]

Snow approaching Portland already on Wednesday afternoon per ECMWF snow map.

[Heavy Snow]

EURO and UKMET, the 2 best model runs in the World based on verification scores look great. It's always a good sign to have those 2 in your corner.

[MossMan]

This will help calm some nerves... Euro keeps low on a better track for Portland.

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_4.png

Yeah but what about us?

[Perturbed Member]

UKMET, NAVGEM and Euro look alike. GFS is batshit crazy north and the GEM is kind of in between. I think the GEM solution would make the most people here happy. 

[TT-SEA]

Snowing in Portland on Wednesday evening... 1 inch by 10 p.m. and snow approaching Seattle area from the SE. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah but what about us?

Fuccked!!  As Usual... Actually I can not see precip maps so dunno... Will be limited QPF just due to distance away... MUCH better for Portland.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I wonder how bad it would be if we had a 930mb low come on shore about seaside Oregon with a 1060 high in southern bc extending down into eastern wa.

[Timmy]

I wonder how bad it would be if we had a 930mb low come on shore about seaside Oregon with a 1060 high in southern bc extending down into eastern wa.

would be really "bad" for people south of the low. Probably good for pdx north though

[MossMan]

I love the latest AFD from Seattle...basically nobody knows where or when the hell the pscz will set up so we are taking the wait and see approach which seems reasonable.

[Front Ranger]

Euro very Canadian-ish at day 4. Should be lots of snow for people.