December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[bainbridgekid]

December 2016 is trending toward January 2011 and January 2005 type infamy! 

The best this pattern ever looked still didn't hold a candle to what those had potential to become though.

[Jesse]

1-05 is in a league of its own. It was built in 4-5 days out. Model consistency with this evolution was never nearly as unanimous. Plus, the 2005 runs were, for a time, WAY colder.

 

Oh I remember.

 

This is still soul crushing, though. Made even worse by the fact that we are now 11 years even further removed from a top tier arctic event. 

[Deweydog]

120E!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Khan!!!!!!!!!!!

[DareDuck]

So sick of this borderline crap that falls apart and ends up dumping 37 degree rain. Hope to move to Bend within a couple of years.

Ha I was living in Eugene and wanted more snow so I moved to Bend. I still want more snow so when I buy my own place it'll be by La Pine.

[Front Ranger]

The best this pattern ever looked still didn't hold a candle to what those had potential to become though.

 

Yup.

 

And people always seem to forget there was a lot of waffling in the 5-7 day range in Jan 2011 before things really fell apart within 5 days. That thing never looked rock solid.

[Phil]

Offshore blocking has trended messier, which makes it easier for all sorts of crazy stuff to spin up off the coast, and harder for it to get as cold.

 

Winter 2016-17 sure is reminding us that weather modeling is still nowhere close to being reliable, at least beyond a couple days.

Hmmm, I wonder why that might be..

[Deweydog]

Oh I remember.

 

This is still soul crushing, though. Made even worse by the fact that we are now 11 years even further removed from a top tier arctic event.

I don't recall any runs showing a truly top tier event inside seven days. Certainly nothing on par with December 1990.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh I remember.

 

This is still soul crushing, though. Made even worse by the fact that we are now 11 years even further removed from a top tier arctic event. 

 

December 2013 just cleared its throat...

[Phil]

120E!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Khan!!!!!!!!!!!

Ba duum psshhhh.

[Front Ranger]

Ha I was living in Eugene and wanted more snow so I moved to Bend. I still want more snow so when I buy my own place it'll be by La Pine.

 

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/hope-relationships/201411/6-signs-youre-addicted-something

[Jesse]

December 2013 just cleared its throat...

 

A sunny CAA driven high below 23 at PDX please.

 

Until then the clock still ticks....

[mountainman]

Ya well not much better up here with 2 inches of snow followed  right away by rain and 33 or 34 degrees out.  Yay.  At least u guys weren't close except when it was 4 days away lol

[Front Ranger]

Hmmm, I wonder why that might be..

 

It's really hard to shut down the Pacific. Most of the time when models show it happening, it doesn't.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A sunny CAA driven high below 23 at PDX please.

 

Until then the clock still ticks....

 

Okay, but for the record I regard December 1998 and 2013 as top tier

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well.... Maybe things can start to reset around Christmas... BUWAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

 

Hmmm why is no one laughing?     ....

 

Dec 23rd

 

 

[Front Ranger]

A sunny CAA driven high below 23 at PDX please.

 

Until then the clock still ticks....

 

How many times did that happen between 1960-90?

[MossMan]

Now watch the Euro won't even have a low anywhere near the northwest on Thursday.

In other news, I'm down to 38.2 degrees!! Few more degree drop and I can sit in my truck and wait for the first splat on the windshield while listening to a replay of today's stellar Seahawks game!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Phil....Is it me or are we setting up for a parade of Pacific storms in the long range and beyond?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I don't recall any runs showing a truly top tier event inside seven days. Certainly nothing on par with December 1990.

Where did u live in 1990?

[Dave]

Ha I was living in Eugene and wanted more snow so I moved to Bend. I still want more snow so when I buy my own place it'll be by La Pine.

La Pine has quite a bit more snow than Bend, but it is too far from any city stuff for my tastes and a decent amount of banjos live out there.  I'd love to live out Skyliners Road a bit, but I'm gonna need to make more $ before something like that can be considered.

[Phil]

It's really hard to shut down the Pacific. Most of the time when models show it happening, it doesn't.

Yeah, it's not the Pacific. Look poleward and upward if you want to know what's decapitating the block.

[Front Ranger]

No worries man.

 

You'd think in this day and age computer modeling would be better.

 

Seems just as shitty as it was in the 80's.

 

Alpine Experience is a woman. Just in case you didn't know.

[MossMan]

La Pine has quite a bit more snow than Bend, but it is too far from any city stuff for my tastes and a decent amount of banjos live out there. I'd love to live out Skyliners Road a bit, but I'm gonna need to make more $ before something like that can be considered.

The look on your frogs face is really fitting for tonight's conversations!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

La Pine has quite a bit more snow than Bend, but it is too far from any city stuff for my tastes and a decent amount of banjos live out there.  I'd love to live out Skyliners Road a bit, but I'm gonna need to make more $ before something like that can be considered.

 

I heard a lot of meth down there too... But its a beautiful area. I hate Bend.

[Jesse]

Yeah, it's not the Pacific. Look poleward and upward if you want to know what's decapitating the block.

 

Darn U-joints!

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, it's not the Pacific. Look poleward and upward if you want to know what's decapitating the block.

 

 

The block this past week was decapitated. Pretty different breakdown being shown now for next week's block.

[Phil]

Phil....Is it me or are we setting up for a parade of Pacific storms in the long range and beyond?

The potential for a +EPO/+NAM episode is very real, so yeah could be lots of Jesse-upsetting westerly flow and storminess.

[mountainman]

What are these Banjo's?

[The Swamp]

Alpine Experience is a woman. Just in case you didn't know.

I call everyone "man".

 

Good to know though. Thanks.

 

My apologies Alpine Experience.

[DareDuck]

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/hope-relationships/201411/6-signs-youre-addicted-something

That's great. I'm sure you could wander around that site and find a few other things that apply to me. The main reason for moving here was to be close to a ski resort. Can't ski 60+ days a year from Eugene or LA (where I grew up)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The look on your frogs face is really fitting for tonight's conversations!

 

That is Pepe!

[Front Ranger]

I call everyone "man".

 

Good to know though. Thanks.

 

My apologies Alpine Experience.

 

I figured, maybe. 

[DareDuck]

La Pine has quite a bit more snow than Bend, but it is too far from any city stuff for my tastes and a decent amount of banjos live out there. I'd love to live out Skyliners Road a bit, but I'm gonna need to make more $ before something like that can be considered.

I grew up in southern California. I'm done with the city life, I want a good chunk of land and to get away from everyone. Those meth addicts keep to themselves and I won't bother them.

[Phil]

 

The block this past week was decapitated. Pretty different breakdown being shown now for next week's block.

This block hasn't been decapitated yet.

 

Think about it this way. The block gets progressively decapitated while zonal winds increase in the upper levels as the PV strengthens. This progression results in the flattening of the block and allows the Bering Sea Vortex/+EPO to develop and attempt to couple with the PV aloft.

[Jesse]

The potential for a +EPO/+NAM episode is very real, so yeah could be lots of Jesse-upsetting westerly flow and storminess.

 

I will be fine. Just need to keep letting go of that sexy 00Z run a few nights ago. Tonight was a final step of the grieving process. Acceptance is coming soon.

[Front Ranger]

Big snowstorm on the GEM, btw.

[Perturbed Member]

Awesome.  00z says I'm gonna eat yet another d!ck with this one.  :|

 

At least you had that 2012 and 2014 event, PDX has been shafted left and right over and over again. Is this shitty place even capable of getting a real snowstorm anymore?

[BLI snowman]

How many times did that happen between 1960-90?

 

Not many. 1963, 1964, 1978, 1983, and that's about it. February 1989 had pretty solid cloudcover on its coldest days.

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 00z GEM looks good. Huge ice storm for the Willamette Valley, snow/ice for PDX Metro and snow SW WA North. Onto the 00z EURO.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121200/156/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121200/108/zr_acc.us_nw.png

[Dave]

I heard a lot of meth down there too... But its a beautiful area. I hate Bend.

I'm too lazy to find any sources, but I believe Detroit actually averages more snow per year than Bend, which is pretty shocking.  Bend climate is obviously still much better, regardless.  

 

I see your snow stats and remembered that Silver Falls State Park actually keeps good statistical information.  Any idea what the max depth was in the winter of 2008/2009.  It's always interested me and I've heard 6 foot depth at Detroit and 8 foot depth at Idanha.  Both of which are shocking.