December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[crf450ish]

Very true.

 

And there's so much more to life than the climate you live in. Some of the best years of my life were spent in that maritime climate.

Indeed.

[bainbridgekid]

Big batch of moisture moving into Whatcom County now. It's all snow North of Bellingham, but it will be interesting to see what it does right in town.

[Heavy Snow]

 

There's going to be a good amount of moisture associated with this system. Somebody is going to get hit big.

[TT-SEA]

SW wind has died here.   36 hours of fun most of which was spent at 36 degrees.

 

Temperature dropped to 33 now.    

[MossMan]

Very true.

 

And there's so much more to life than the climate you live in. Some of the best years of my life were spent in that maritime climate.

I cannot wait to move...partly weather related but mostly due to my little seven lakes area I live in being completely over run by too many people and meth heads. It was such a quiet and cozy place when I was younger...now it's out of control and I had to run off two vehicles doing a drug deal in front of my house at 4am...on my quiet little street...and was hoping I wasn't going to get shot in the process. (Very bright flashlight in faces and pointed at license plates did the trick) but we will be heading somewhere eventually where our house will be smack dab in the middle of nowhere with a lot of snow all winter. Can't wait.

[crf450ish]

[Heavy Snow]

As of right now it's a battle of the EURO/UKMET/NAVGEM vs GFS/NAM with the GEM somewhere in between. Onto the 12z runs tomorrow.

[Front Ranger]

Euro starts to get pretty cool again towards day 10, and progressing in a promising manner.

[snow_wizard]

This mother ******* goddamn climate can suck my mother ******* cock! Furthermore this piece of location I live in can go **** itself.

[snow_wizard]

Have I ever said how much I loathe this ******* place?

[bainbridgekid]

This mother ******* goddamn climate can suck my mother ******* cock! Furthermore this piece of s**t location I live in can go **** itself.

Should we send someone to check up on you?

[crf450ish]

In other news..... the sun was blank today. Has to be a good thing.

[MossMan]

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks as though the outflow is inching across the Strait of Georgia now. It's hit Orcas Island. It's predicted to hit Vancouver Island around midnight so it seems like the timing is about correct so far. Vancouver has already switched over to a rain/snow mix. The barometric pressure in Hope is sitting at 1021mb against 1015mb in Victoria, a pretty substantial difference given the distance. But currently still a rainy 37F here.

[snow_wizard]

I guarantee the Seattle area will have almost no snow with this event while place north, south, east, and west will have. I just want this episode to be over so we can have a reset and try again.

[snow_wizard]

Should we send someone to check up on you?

No.

[snow_wizard]

I HATE this climate.

[Front Ranger]

I guarantee the Seattle will have almost no snow with this event while place north, south, east, and west will have. I just want this episode to be over so we have a reset and try again.

 

Trying to understand why you feel this way...nothing's even close to set in stone with the models, and several show your area getting plenty of snow this week.

[MossMan]

I guarantee the Seattle area will have almost no snow with this event while place north, south, east, and west will have. I just want this episode to be over so we can have a reset and try again.

Calm down big guy...we are still a long way away from the possible event.

[snow_wizard]

In other news..... the sun was blank today. Has to be a good thing.

Thank God! A Maunder minimum is the only hope we have here.

[Jesse]

I guarantee the Seattle will have almost no snow with this event while place north, south, east, and west will have. I just want this episode to be over so we can have a reset and try again.

 

Given the trends (if you want to call them that) on the models today I would say Seattle is in a pretty good position. Some sort of northward shift is inevitable, but the fact that the Euro is holding back a bit thus far increases the odds that it's in the sweet spot for you guys, IMO.

 

Probably just a cold rain down here on the other hand.

[snow_wizard]

Trying to understand why you feel this way...nothing's even close to set in stone with the models, and several show your area getting plenty of snow this week.

It's just obvious. The moisture will be too far south. Put money on it.

[snow_wizard]

Given the trends (if you want to call them that) on the models today I would say Seattle is in a pretty good position. Some sort of northward shift is inevitable, but the fact that the Euro is holding back a bit thus far increases the odds that it's in the sweet spot for you guys, IMO.

 

Probably just a cold rain down here on the other hand.

Nope...you guys will be buried.

[crf450ish]

https://youtu.be/uoDDMwlpqcI

[MossMan]

I wonder how many computer monitors Jim has gone through over the past five years.

[snow_wizard]

I cannot wait to move...partly weather related but mostly due to my little seven lakes area I live in being completely over run by too many people and meth heads. It was such a quiet and cozy place when I was younger...now it's out of control and I had to run off two vehicles doing a drug deal in front of my house at 4am...on my quiet little street...and was hoping I wasn't going to get shot in the process. (Very bright flashlight in faces and pointed at license plates did the trick) but we will be heading somewhere eventually where our house will be smack dab in the middle of nowhere with a lot of snow all winter. Can't wait.

Amen brother!

 

Covington is the same way. Growing way too fast and the worst climate known to man.

[snow_wizard]

I wonder how many computer monitors Jim has gone through over the past five years.

It took great restraint and half bottle of wine to keep me from destroying something tonight.

[Perturbed Member]

As of right now it's a battle of the EURO/UKMET/NAVGEM vs GFS/NAM with the GEM somewhere in between. Onto the 12z runs tomorrow.

 

I would say the Euro is somewhat different than the UKMET and NAVGEM in that it takes the low even further south and is fairly weak with it. 

 

 

The 00z NAM track seems to look pretty good as well. Further south than the GEM but stronger than the Euro and possibly heading a bit more north?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121200/namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

[MossMan]

Amen brother!

 

Covington is the same way. Growing way too fast and the worst climate known to man.

My climate is ok for Puget Sound standards but the growth and quality of people is just horrific anymore.

[snow_wizard]

4 ******* years without a ******* snowfall of 2 inches or more! The worst ever recorded. And 2007 - 2012 looked so promisiung we were putting this behind us.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks as though the outflow is inching across the Strait of Georgia now. It's hit Orcas Island. It's predicted to hit Vancouver Island around midnight so it seems like the timing is about correct so far. Vancouver has already switched over to a rain/snow mix. The barometric pressure in Hope is sitting at 1021mb against 1015mb in Victoria, a pretty substantial difference given the distance. But currently still a rainy 37F here.

Looks like the low is a touch north of where it was modelled. Not sure if we are going to get in on that good deformation stuff. The mid levels are starting to cool though, had a bit of a mix shortly ago. It was all rain earlier.

[luminen]

Raining here now and not really expecting any snow accumulation in the morning. 

[snow_wizard]

Aren't we so lucky to live in a climate that features 5 to 6 months of total gloom and rain, but has so little snow? People have actually fooled themselves into thinking this climate is actually good! :lol: :lol:

 

God forbid we have gorgeous sunny and crisp days with snow on the ground. Gloom is Soooooooooooooooooo much better!

[crf450ish]

Snow_wizard are you https://youtu.be/AjZuGas6yRQwith your climate?

[Arctic Front]

Nope...you guys will be buried.

nwsnow, jesse, and andrew cried enough earlier that the Euro felt bad... onto 12z runs

[seattleweatherguy]

The weather.Com app has me getting 1 to 3 inches if thst means anything

[snow_wizard]

Sorry guys.

[Perturbed Member]

Nope...you guys will be buried.

 

Most of the models that have trended in any direction today have gone further north, climo and past experience supports the idea of the low going further north. I think you know that you have a reasonable shot at a few inches. The GEM track honestly seems quite believable. 

[crf450ish]

Sorry guys.

Hey man, if you have hate in your heart, let it out.... ya know?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like the low is a touch north of where it was modelled. Not sure if we are going to get in on that good deformation stuff. The mid levels are starting to cool though, had a bit of a mix shortly ago. It was all rain earlier.

 

Yep, you'll probably do fine but my area is right on the line between great and nothing on this one. Environment Canada isn't taking the model bait; not so much as a special weather statement for either southern or eastern VI. They only mention of showers / possible wet flurries in favored locations. If this does go the way of the WRF people will be wondering what happened when they attempt their Monday morning commute. In a typical situation I'd tend to write this off entirely, but with track of the low, sufficiently cold air crossing the Strait, and increase pressure over our outflow sources I think there's an above normal chance for a very rare event here.