December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

I hate wind.

Hell, I am so desperate I will take anything interesting at this point. Getting basically missed by my best snow chance in about 4 years I would take a little windy weather. Bring IT! 

[TT-SEA]

So your saying... Back to normal? 

 

 

12Z ECMWF looks very boring.    Rainy... then dry... then rainy.

 

Not much excitement or anything to really track on that run unless you live in the cold air bubble on the Kitsap Peninsula.   

[MossMan]

High Wind watch just issued for my area... Most excitement I may see for awhile.

Nobody cares about wind...it's all about chasing that snowflake this time of the year. Actually I love wind so I'm excited!

[ShawniganLake]

12Z ECMWF looks very boring. Rainy... then dry... then rainy.

 

Not much excitement or anything to really track on that run unless you live in the cold air bubble on the Kitsap Peninsula.

Hood canal snow on the euro?

[ShawniganLake]

Nobody cares about wind...it's all about chasing that snowflake this time of the year. Actually I love wind so I'm excited!

I like windstorms too. Going to melt the 7" of snow I have left in an awful hurry, however.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Hood canal snows on the euro?

Blows up actually due to a hidden caldera... Talk about action!  

[luvssnow_spokane]

I like windstorms too. Going to melt the 7" of snow I have left in an awful hurry, however.

You're getting all the goods. Spoiled... <_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_happy.png" alt="^_^">

[luvssnow_spokane]

12Z ECMWF looks very boring.    Rainy... then dry... then rainy.

 

Not much excitement or anything to really track on that run unless you live in the cold air bubble on the Kitsap Peninsula.  

Yep... normal. Cant wait. 

[ShawniganLake]

You're getting all the goods. Spoiled... <_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_happy.png" alt="^_^">

I kinda got screwed last night actually. Had 1" of liquid fall as mixed rain and snow at 32-35F. Was a bit painful to watch. Was snowing heavily just up the road from me.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I kinda got screwed last night actually. Had 1" of liquid fall as mixed rain and snow at 32-35F. Was a bit painful to watch. Was snowing heavily just up the road from me.

bummer... Well, maybe more for you in mid to late January. For me? Dunno. Maybe a miss or dry event again. 

[ShawniganLake]

bummer... Well, maybe more for you in mid to late January. For me? Dunno. Maybe a miss or dry event again.

I have always liked February for another big opportunity. Maybe the late January thru February period will be really good. It has to snow there again at some point. I was down in Victoria yesterday and there was no sign of snow within the city. They are still suffering along with you guys.

[Farmboy]

The best way to deal with lack of snow is with a short drive to the mountains.  So that's what I'm doing wednesday.

[HighlandExperience]

Hell, I am so desperate I will take anything interesting at this point. Getting basically missed by my best snow chance in about 4 years I would take a little windy weather. Bring IT!

I don't like power outages. Just doesn't float my boat.

[TT-SEA]

Just hit 40 for the first time this month.   Ugly out there.

[Deweydog]

Down 11 degrees in two hours at Astoria.

 

#arcticfront

#sensorreplacement

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I have always liked February for another big opportunity. Maybe the late January thru February period will be really good. It has to snow there again at some point. I was down in Victoria yesterday and there was no sign of snow within the city. They are still suffering along with you guys.

 

There was still a bit of snow in the back yard when I arrived yesterday evening, when I woke up this morning it was completely gone. Lower elevations in town have done worse with little more than slush. The system last Sunday night had so much potential but just went a little too far north.

[epiceast]

Dry.

Euro is drier than GFS?

[TT-SEA]

Euro is drier than GFS?

 

12Z ECMWF is dry on Tuesday for almost all of western Montana.

[snow_wizard]

The best way to deal with lack of snow is with a short drive to the mountains.  So that's what I'm doing wednesday.

Doesn't work for me.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF actually shows Fraser outflow again at day 5. Hopefully some moisture will start to show up for that cold snap.

[snow_wizard]

I have always liked February for another big opportunity. Maybe the late January thru February period will be really good. It has to snow there again at some point. I was down in Victoria yesterday and there was no sign of snow within the city. They are still suffering along with you guys.

I still think we could get hit good again even sooner than that. Probably going to be recurring cold throughout the winter. Long range models strongly support that.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Doesn't work for me.

That's like saying going to a strip club will do the trick... Nope.

[snow_wizard]

Almost every recent CFS runs shows us getting really cold again somewhere in the late Dec to Jan 20 period. Nice to see that. Hopefully the 45 day ECMWF ensemble will look as good as it did last week. The UKMET MJO forecast shows a very favorably placed MJO wave emerging soon. That is regarded as one of the best models for predicting emerging MJO waves.

[Bryant]

Doesn't work for me.

Agreed. Having to drive to snow is not what we are here to achieve

[snow_wizard]

That's like saying going to a strip club will do the trick... Nope.

I just get depressed when I come back from going to see snow somewhere else.

 

Did you get anything last night? I was disappointed when the radar showed it would be snow and it just started as rain.

[HighlandExperience]

Doesn't work for me.

I feel the same way. I spend plenty of time in the mountains skiing and ice climbing etc. Having snow at home in the lowlands is magical. I much prefer it!!

 

Don't get me wrong I enjoy the fact we can go a short distance for snow, but I prefer it at home.

[ShawniganLake]

Best snow in a few years.

  

I just get depressed when I come back from going to see snow somewhere else.Did you get anything last night? I was disappointed when the radar showed it would be snow and it just started as rain.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I just get depressed when I come back from going to see snow somewhere else.

 

Did you get anything last night? I was disappointed when the radar showed it would be snow and it just started as rain.

6 inches

[snow_wizard]

I was kind of shocked when I just looked at the WRF. It shows 925mb temps dropping to -6 over Seattle later in the week. Pretty amazing to see it that cold again so soon. We can go for an entire winter without seeing it that cold. The model shows the classic Arctic outbreak (surface pressure) signature at the beginning of the event, but the moisture is lacking...at least for now.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I just get depressed when I come back from going to see snow somewhere else.

 

Did you get anything last night? I was disappointed when the radar showed it would be snow and it just started as rain.

 

When I come back from my property I get sick to my stomach when I get over the pass on west side. I hate this ******* side of the mountains. To many a******* and yuppies.

[snow_wizard]

6 inches

Nice. It appears only a very few places scored last night.

[snow_wizard]

When I come back from my property I get sick to my stomach when I get over the pass on west side. I hate this ******* side of the mountains. To many a******* and yuppies.

Not to mention the snow problem.

[stuffradio]

I've seen some talks of people thinking the PV is going to send more cold arctic air into the west in a week or two. Thoughts anyone?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

here ya go jim.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Late week system trending towards an Oregon snow storm on the 18z. Just might be to warm on the valley floor

[Winterdog]

I was kind of shocked when I just looked at the WRF. It shows 925mb temps dropping to -6 over Seattle later in the week. Pretty amazing to see it that cold again so soon. We can go for an entire winter without seeing it that cold. The model shows the classic Arctic outbreak (surface pressure) signature at the beginning of the event, but the moisture is lacking...at least for now.

The moisture isn't lacking for Portland south on the 18Z. Looks like they might have snow on the ground going into the cold period and Christmas. How unnerving!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Late week system trending towards an Oregon snow storm on the 18z. Just might be to warm on the valley floor

History says this one will tract further north.

[Jesse]

Got about 1/2" of snow overnight into very early this morning before it switched over.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like another Fraser river blast regardless

[luvssnow_spokane]

History says this one will tract further north.

... just enough to nail Portland and send flurries into the Puget Sound...