December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

I'm taking solace in the fact that there have been a smattering of runs over the last 4-5 days that have warned us things could go this way. It's not like it's a completely new development.

 

I would like to see the trends stabilize now though. Ensembles give me hope.

Hindsight is always 20/20. I'll say I had no suspicion whatsoever of such an overall synoptic shift.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF... a little better for my area and central King County compared to the 00Z run.     Still shows temperatures well above freezing around Seattle tomorrow so all of this snow will not make it until Monday.  

 

 

[Kayla]

PDX will have to decouple well to get into the teens with the more modified air mass. Looks unlikely.

 

Yeah for sure. Seems likely at some point they'll decouple enough to at least see upper teens at some point.

[Winterdog]

What does the Euro snow map look like for the whole run? There should be an overrunning event for the Seattle area I would think.

I guess I will have to answer this one myself. 

 

edit: Thank you Tim.  I know it wasn't in response to my post but thanks anyway.

[Deweydog]

Yeah for sure. Seems likely at some point they'll decouple enough to at least see upper teens.

Ok.

[HighlandExperience]

Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF... a little better for my area and central King County compared to the 00Z run. Still shows temperatures well above freezing around Seattle tomorrow so all of this snow will not make it until Monday.

 

 

That doesn't look terrible.

[Front Ranger]

I really can't believe that the Portland NWS issued a WWA for widespread 1 to 2 inches. At this point they just seem like a bunch of weenies praying for snow every event.

 

It seems kind of irresponsible for the general public. People will be all mad that the ground is bare. 

 

I guess they figure it would be more irresponsible to have people surprised by snow?

 

They need a bit more Timmy and slightly less Heavy Snow over there.

[Heavy Snow]

I guess I will have to answer this one myself.

12z EURO just started running.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF... a little better for my area and central King County compared to the 00Z run.     Still shows temperatures well above freezing around Seattle tomorrow so all of this snow will not make it until Monday.  

 

 

Looks about right. Kinda what I have been anticipating. At least we will have a few cold days. Been fun!

[The Swamp]

Jim I give you props to always holding on to all hope until the ship is already underwater. Kudos to you and hope you're right. I am just struggling with how to deal with the 20foot wide whole in this ship we are riding. If the band keeps playing it will at least keep the passengers calm.

You and Dewey have the best zingers.

[luvssnow_spokane]

12z Euro - Tuesday... Still cold but warming...

 

Todays run...

 

 

 

Previous run...

 

[TT-SEA]

I guess I will have to answer this one myself. 

 

edit: Thank you Tim.  I know it wasn't in response to my post but thanks anyway.

 

 

That is only through Monday... its only out though about 84 hours.

[TT-SEA]

That doesn't look terrible.

 

I think the I-90 corridor will be the best spot to be in King County.

[Front Ranger]

Euro looks pretty darn similar to GFS at day 3. Low off NorCal is weaker, though.

[Front Ranger]

I think the I-90 corridor will be the best spot to be in King County.

 

The hills near North Bend are usually a good bet.

[Winterdog]

That is only through Monday... its only out though about 84 hours.

Yeah, my internal clock was off an hour.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think the I-90 corridor will be the best spot to be in King County.

Agreed... Pierce County will be the worst. Shadowing sucks

[Poulsbo Snowman]

The hills near North Bend are usually a good bet.

RMAOFL!

[TT-SEA]

The hills near North Bend are usually a good bet.

 

If I were shopping for a house and loved snow and knew the area well... that would seem pretty obvious.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[luvssnow_spokane]

WOW!! I can not believe the changes... SO much warmer. AMAZIN' -- Wednesday -- Here it comes!

 

Todays run...

 

 

 

Previous run..

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Wednesday low weaker and further south than GFS. Overall, pattern looks a bit more promising for a reload...lower heights further west over the continent than GFS.

[Jbolin]

  Arctic front racing southward from just north of YVR

[luvssnow_spokane]

Every run is getting better. We all have to love this!!!   <_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_laugh.png" alt=":lol:"> 

[Deweydog]

Suppressed jet!!!

[snow_wizard]

Jim I give you props to always holding on to all hope until the ship is already underwater. Kudos to you and hope you're right. I am just struggling with how to deal with the 20foot wide whole in this ship we are riding.  If the band keeps playing it will at least keep the passengers calm.

Still looks pretty good overall.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

I feel like the EURO is overly bullish with snow down here...

[Kayla]

Euro definitely holds onto the cold air a little better compared to the 00z last night at day 4.

[HighlandExperience]

If I were shopping for a house and loved snow and knew the area well... that would seem pretty obvious.  

 

Yup these days though you need to be willing to throw down at least 600K as an entry fee. 

 

Or you can rent a tiny apartment for 2500 a month!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WOW!! I can not believe the changes... SO much warmer. AMAZIN' -- Wednesday -- Here it comes!

 

Todays run...

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_5.png

 

Previous run..

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_6.png

 

I think it is colder than the 00z though...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Still looks pretty good overall.

Sweet music Jim! I feel better. 

[TT-SEA]

  Arctic front racing southward from just north of YVR

 

 

Racing southward and blasting through and still will be in the mid to upper 30s down here tomorrow afternoon.   Why can't cold air come in stronger and faster than the models show this year?  

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think it is colder than the 00z though...

true.  But the ECMWF has been slower all winter to show the transitions. 

[Front Ranger]

  Arctic front racing southward from just north of YVR

 

Still looks easily more impressive than any front so far this winter. 

 

There WILL be surprises.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yup these days though you need to be willing to throw down at least 600K as an entry fee. 

 

I can't even imagine what a nice place near Seattle goes for these days...I know PDX is a bargain compared to Seattle. 

[Bryant]

Arctic front racing southward from just north of YVR

"Like"

[Goducks09]

850s still warming on the Euro when compared to the 00z run.

[HighlandExperience]

I can't even imagine what a nice place near Seattle goes for these days...I know PDX is a bargain compared to Seattle. 

 

In King County you should be willing to spend at least 500K to buy a decent home. On the East Side probably at least 650K. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Thursday -- Here it comes! lol   Gotta love the ever increasing warm up. PLAY THE MUSIC LOUDER!!!! 

 

Todays run...

 

 

 

Previous run..

 

[TT-SEA]

Yup these days though you need to be willing to throw down at least 600K as an entry fee. 

 

Or you can rent a tiny apartment for 2500 a month!

 

Not in the areas up from exit 32.    And even in the cold pocket areas south of I-90 off exit 34.    Both areas do amazingly well and you can find much less expensive homes.

 

That area south of I-90 on exit 34 seems to be protected from the south wind entirely.    I have seen my area lose all of our snow while that area holds onto their snow for days and sometime weeks longer than here.