Tom Posted December 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 When does this get sampled?It's already getting good sampling coming on shore. RPM looks similar to the NAM. The band pivots right over N IL and never stops snowing here and in S WI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Wave currently offshore... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Wave currently offshore...Close enough that balloon network and aircraft picking up on it. Skilling even said it was beginning to come on shore, at least some of the energy. 12z tomorrow full sampling will be done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Close enough that balloon network and aircraft picking up on it. Skilling even said it was beginning to come on shore, at least some of the energy. 12z tomorrow full sampling will be done.Totally agree. Still interesting that the driving mechanism for the storm is so far away and we are within 18 hours or so of storm time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 another one to the north. ugh. hard not to be extremely nervous Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 GGEM looks drier and weaker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 GGEM looks drier and weakerQpf ticking down storm wide on the globals.at least Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Inside 24-48 hours go with high rez?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Inside 24-48 hours go with high rez??I would for sure if the wave wasnt still on the shores of british columbia. The Euro gives me pause as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 This storm is going to be in my area by early afternoon tomorrow, so models need to figure this out soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 00z GFS...fwiw, NAM/RPM nearly identical and place heaviest axis over N IL/SE WI/S MI...ORD at 9.4" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 I think RPM had around 9" for MKE area also... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Lol models haven't pinned a track in 2 years I feel like. Thinking 8" here at most, which really is where this whole thing started, it was never gonna be monster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Lol models haven't pinned a track in 2 years I feel like. Thinking 8" here at most, which really is where this whole thing started, it was never gonna be monster.Anything above 5" is a winner. If you think about it, we are really only about a week into true Winter weather. We have a long way to go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 ggem and gfs were actually a slight improvement for southern michigan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 ggem and gfs were actually a slight improvement for southern michiganRPM model looked good as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Snow breaking out in NE..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Not feeling super optimistic about this event, but hope things change for the better tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Both GFS and nam look similar to their 0z runs except maybe a bit more snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 I am up early today as I have to go into work early. Getting a moderate snow shower at this time. Have 2.5” of new snow overnight. Now have a total of 7.75” on the ground. The snow this morning is very light and fluffy with nice big size flakes. The temperature here is now 21° Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Hoping for a solid 4" out of this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Still liking 8" here. Let's get the show on the road 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 HRRR has shifted heavy snow band in Iowa down to i80 corridor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 HRRR has shifted heavy snow band in Iowa down to i80 corridorBeen watching that. HRRR did horrible last time around,, but the RAP is showing the same thing.***Edit*** it seems to ever so slowly be adjusting back N again. Anything past HR 7 or 8 on the HRRR, I don't trust. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Been watching that. HRRR did horrible last time around,, but the RAP is showing the same thing.Ive take myself off the the rap/hrrr this winter. Not worth the pain. They are 50%ers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 I do like seeing the trends coming off OMA radar and that it's in precip mode.... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Bit surprised MKX didn't go with a WWA yet. I guess they're making sure there won't be any upticks in qpf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 LOT still thinking 6-10" for N IL... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Suprised by the OMA radar this morning! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Tom, I believe LOTs latest take is 5 to 10 in the Orange based on their post this morning. Couldn't post the graphic though...sorry! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 12z NAM with a little more love in N IL...12-14" in spots...still snowing in MI...will post maps when they load 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 RPM/NAM looking very similar for the local area... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Pretty good spread the wealth. Hope it works out for all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Pretty good spread the wealth. Hope it works out for all.It's looking likely that a majority of us north of I-80 (except for NE), will have a nice fresh snow pack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Hey Grizz, let us know how that initial band about to go through DSM looks like. Some embedded 30dbz rates I see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Hey Grizz, let us know how that initial band about to go through DSM looks like. Some embedded 30dbz rates I see.Should have a decent growth zone to work with at onset Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Nice uptick from 4km Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 One thing I don't like about this weekends system is how we go from dry powdery snow to wetter heavier snow. That 6-10 may end up looking more like 3-6 after it all compacts down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted December 10, 2016 Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 Sorry for the questions... Does anyone know if Instant weather weather snow maps are statistically better than pivotal? Just curious. Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2016 12z NAM-4km...SW/S MI has a big increase in precip...better phasing??? Looks like the SLP starts to ramp up as it heads into N MI. Odd to see it snow SE of the low, but I guess this may be the type of season where we see the cold "winning"....I like the sound of that... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016121012/nam4km_apcpn_ncus_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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