12/10-12/12 Plains/Midwest/Lakes Weekend Snowstorm

[Tom]

One thing I don't like about this weekends system is how we go from dry powdery snow to wetter heavier snow. That 6-10 may end up looking more like 3-6 after it all compacts down.

It won't be nearly as bad as last week's heavy wet snow...I wouldn't worry about it..it's not like we go into the mid/upper 30's.  We'll see some compaction but nothing that bad.

[Tom]

12z NAM precip totals...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121012/namconus_apcpn_ncus_18.png

[Tom]

Sorry for the questions... Does anyone know if Instant weather weather snow maps are statistically better than pivotal? Just curious. Thanks!

Good question, but I guess we can use this storm system as a real "test".  The Kuchera method vs InstantWxMap...

[Tom]

12z GFS a touch south with the snow band in IA thru HR 18...

[gosaints]

Not south through 24. Ripping pretty good northwest of msp

[Tom]

Not south through 24. Ripping pretty good northwest of msp

The 3" mark on the GFS did bump south, but overall, everything looks the same...

[Madtown]

Not liking that. Heavy band north and heavy band south!

[Madtown]

When does Mkx make the decision. When it starts snowing? Lol

[WBadgersW]

When does Mkx make the decision. When it starts snowing? Lol

Gotta play it safe! Hahah

[ToastedRavs]

Under the 25-30 DBZ band now just outside of DSM.  Coming down pretty good.  Visibility less than a mile, probably between a half and 3/4.  This is going to be the band that gives us our total for the most part.  Hope we can stay under it for an hour at least.  Flakes about quarter size

[Tom]

Under the 25-30 DBZ band now just outside of DSM.  Coming down pretty good.  Visibility less than a mile, probably between a half and 3/4.  This is going to be the band that gives us our total for the most part.  Hope we can stay under it for an hour at least.  Flakes about quarter size

Nice dendrites I see.  That's what I like to see.

[ToastedRavs]

Nice dendrites I see.  That's what I like to see.

 

 

Definitely.  Flakes between quarter and half dollar size.  In 20 minutes, probably between 1/2" and 3/4" of snow.  Just wish we had more than this to look forward to.  But better than nothing I suppose

[UnionWX]

Looks like the Des Moines area is getting raked! 

Web cams look good out there.

[james1976]

The NAM and GFS are very different for my area. That south edge is gonna bust on one of the models.

[james1976]

Ill be in DSM tonight so im gonna miss out on the fun up here at home. Kinda bummed about that. Prolly wont get a measurement til late tonight or morning.

[WBadgersW]

Chicago under WSW

 

Maybe I should move South to get some of the big snows

[FV-Mike]

Wow, going with 7-11 north of I-88

[jaster220]

12z NAM-4km...SW/S MI has a big increase in precip...better phasing???  Looks like the SLP starts to ramp up as it heads into N MI.  Odd to see it snow SE of the low, but I guess this may be the type of season where we see the cold "winning"....I like the sound of that...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016121012/nam4km_apcpn_ncus_16.png

There's my 12+ returning to the party - "she's a beaut Clark"!

[jaster220]

Chicago under WSW

Maybe I should move South to get some of the big snows

...and IWX, GRR may upgrade after more freeway closing pile ups on 94. Hopefully no more fatalities!!

[chances14]

DTX current foretasted totals 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/dtx/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=35394

[chances14]

tropicaltidbits now has the NAM parallel

 

http://i1206.photobucket.com/albums/bb454/sherbert1421/Models/nam3km_asnow_ncus_21_zpskicshpsy.png

[BrianJK]

So KJB said he sees Izzi's WWA, and raise you a WSW. Suppose it makes sense given the current trends. Just hope it all pans out

[midwest buildit]

Yea. For my area, It was 8-12 last night. Then it was down to 5-10 this morning. Now its back up to 8-12. Lol

[gosaints]

Euro/ukie versus everyone else

[Tom]

Yea. For my area, It was 8-12 last night. Then it was down to 5-10 this morning. Now its back up to 8-12. Lol

Back in Biz this year!  Hope all of you who do plowing can make some good holiday cash this year!

[Madtown]

Yikes not liking that nam

[james1976]

tropicaltidbits now has the NAM parallel

 

http://i1206.photobucket.com/albums/bb454/sherbert1421/Models/nam3km_asnow_ncus_21_zpskicshpsy.png

This is already wrong as there are 3" reports just north of Council Bluffs

[gosaints]

This is already wrong as there are 3" reports just north of Council Bluffs

Intial waa wings often over perform

[midwest buildit]

Back in Biz this year! Hope all of you who do plowing can make some good holiday cash this year!

Yes i am. Hoping this year is a good year. I didnt make much over the summer. Ive gutted my own house down to the studs and am renovating it completely. Dont get paid to work on your own house. Lol

[Tom]

Local grid forecast is calling for 7-14"!  Nice!  Now lets hope it pans out...guess they are siding with the RPM/NAM as those models are showing some pretty intense banding in N IL.

[hlcater]

my point forecast shows me getting 7" of snow. I think that's a bit overdone.

[Tom]

For those up near the shoreline in WI, say MKE on north, if winds can veer SE a bit more you can get some Lehs.  HRRR is showing some bands over the lake but they are orientated S/N.

[Tom]

This system is literally going to fill the snow holes in SE SD/S MN/IA/WI...mother nature can't do this any better...the snow cover should begin to creep farther south in time I'd assume.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201612/nsm_depth_2016121005_National.jpg

[WBadgersW]

I've been watching that Lehs potential. Some past model runs showed bands coming onshore. Maybe we'll get lucky

[Madtown]

Flurries here

[gosaints]

Flurries here

Solid light snow here for the last 45 minutes. should have 1/2 inch in first hour

[WBadgersW]

I was not expecting to be upgraded to a WSW. Forcasted for 7-10"

[Madtown]

Same here!

[Tom]

It's awesome to see back 2 back systems where the NWS offices bump up their snow fall totals as a system approaches instead of decreasing!

[St Paul Storm]

The column has saturated here. Flurries started about 20 minutes ago. The WWA was expanded north to St Cloud. I'm going with 4" here.