12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[St Paul Storm]

MPX just expanded the watch north and upped the totals. 6-10" area wide with locals over 12".

 

Money and E WI are golden

[Madtown]

Wow didn't see that spinning up!

[ToastedRavs]

It would be a welcome worry as it then says the low pressure system has developed a true storm

Very true, unless you're the one that gets stuck with either freezing drizzle and/or piece of crap flakes!

[WBadgersW]

Put a fork in er

Hmmm

[gosaints]

Very true, unless you're the one that gets stuck with either freezing drizzle and/or piece of crap flakes!

Still worth the risk.  

[Tom]

I'll take 5" and run with it...if the GFS is right...7" is a winner here!  I'm really interested to see how the Lehs sets up near MKE and the north burbs.

[gosaints]

The country of canada should invest a couple million dollars to upgrade there data output software

[ToastedRavs]

Still worth the risk.

Ahh, the rich get richer! Lol. You must be one of the richer (snowier) places. My gut says that totals will be cut even more widespread than what the GFS has from NE KS into the Ottumwa area. My bet is that totals are less perhaps as far north as hwy 20, maybe as far east as NW Illinois.

[Money]

The country of canada should invest a couple million dollars to upgrade there data output software

 

Looks similar to 12z based on B/W maps but weatherbell is up to HR 18 or so, so I'll know soon.

[East Dubzz]

CMC looks like a good hit around here. Keepin that dream alive.

[Tom]

The last 3 00z runs respectively showing the better phasing of the second wave/defo band...small little features slowly getting ironed out.  Tomorrow should be interesting if the trends continue.

 

00z 13th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121300/gfs_z500_vort_ncus_21.png

 

00z 14th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121400/gfs_z500_vort_ncus_17.png

 

00z 15th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121500/gfs_z500_vort_ncus_13.png

[gosaints]

Ahh, the rich get richer! Lol. You must be one of the richer (snowier) places. My gut says that totals will be cut even more widespread than what the GFS has from NE KS into the Ottumwa area. My bet is that totals are less perhaps as far north as hwy 20, maybe as far east as NW Illinois.

Get plenty of snow... Have seen plenty of dry slots.  Win some ya lose some.  Know they are usually a necessary evil if you want well developed cutters

[Money]

WAA band a bit farther north on CMC so far through 48.

[indianajohn]

ok so what are we tracking next? LOL

[bud2380]

Canadian

 

 

[Money]

GGEM is similar to 12z but more QPF out in Minny.

 

Widespread 12+ 

[Money]

Canadian

 

 

 

 

Looks like it develops a nice defo band as well on the backside. 

[Madtown]

Gfs/ggem vs euro/nam....who won last week

[East Dubzz]

Last week was a week ago.

[gosaints]

Gfs/ggem vs euro/nam....who won last week

Depends on location and it has no impact on this system.  EURO is still the best model but the gap is not what it once was

[Money]

Gfs/ggem vs euro/nam....who won last week

 

Eh. All were kind of right. Euro was close on QPF, but I think it was a bit too far north. Doesn't really matter tho, different kind of set up.

[Money]

HR 60 GGEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121500/060/prateptype.us_mw.png

[Money]

So, the 3 models so far tonight.

 

NAM:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121500/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121500/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

CMC:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121500/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

LOT's got a tough forecast...curious if they issue a WSW or WWA...

[Madtown]

Oshkosh a foot plus on all of them.

[Money]

Oshkosh a foot plus on all of them.

Would like the euro to come on board though but I'm not sure I buy the higher amounts yet

[Money]

Ukie is stronger with the low. Gets it down to 995 at HR 60. About 3 mb stronger than CMC

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

 

 

994 at HR 72. CMC/GFS both 999 or so.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

[gosaints]

LOT's got a tough forecast...curious if they issue a WSW or WWA...

Like throwing darts blindfolded

[East Dubzz]

2.5-9.8" spread there.. solid. 

[Madtown]

Mkx Facebook page ridingthe euro for qpf.

[Money]

Mkx Facebook page ridingthe euro for qpf.

0z run should be interesting

[Money]

Gfs ensembles look a bit wetter overall

[Money]

0z Euro coming in with a lot more QPF overall...

[Money]

0z Euro looks better with WAA and backside snows.

 

.6 QPF from LSE all the way to MSN/MKE with eastern/SE WI in the .7-.9 range.

[Grizzcoat]

UKIE has a nice deformation band for S and E.IA--

[Money]

UKIE has a nice deformation band for S and E.IA--P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gifPA_000-072_0000.gif

 

Could you post the output euro text if you get a chance?

[Grizzcoat]

I will,, but extremely slow tonight (not me-- the Euro text)

[midwest buildit]

So im looking at anywhere between 1.5 and 10". Lol. Gonna be hard to forcast. Hopefully models come in better agreement tomorrow.

[Grizzcoat]

Little different format tonight since AccuWX is missing some crucial hours-- but I found a way around it-- total qpf.

 

MSN-

    2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    TOTAL    500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK THU 00Z 15-DEC -15.3   -22.6    1025      58      40             517     498    THU 06Z 15-DEC -19.1   -22.8    1029      74      28    0.00     519     498    THU 12Z 15-DEC -21.5   -20.0    1032      74      15    0.00     526     503    THU 18Z 15-DEC -17.0   -18.1    1033      61      12    0.00     533     509    FRI 00Z 16-DEC -17.5   -16.5    1031      75      34    0.00     539     515    FRI 06Z 16-DEC -15.9   -15.4    1030      77      88    0.00     542     520    FRI 12Z 16-DEC -13.8   -11.9    1025      75     100    0.03     544     526    FRI 18Z 16-DEC  -9.2   -10.8    1019      61      98    0.03     547     532    SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -9.0    -8.2    1013      82      95    0.14     545     535    SAT 06Z 17-DEC  -8.1    -9.7    1006      87      99    0.32     541     536    SAT 12Z 17-DEC  -7.6    -8.7    1004      90      81    0.40     540     537    SAT 18Z 17-DEC  -7.7   -10.8    1007      82      97             538     533    SUN 00Z 18-DEC  -7.6   -14.3    1011      84     100             533     525    SUN 06Z 18-DEC -14.2   -18.4    1018      76      98    0.46     525     511

OSH-

FRI 12Z 16-DEC -13.1   -14.2    1025      75     100    0.01     540     521    FRI 18Z 16-DEC  -9.1   -13.2    1020      64      99    0.02     542     527    SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -8.4   -12.0    1014      76      98    0.08     543     532    SAT 06Z 17-DEC  -6.5   -11.9    1008      88      97    0.36     538     532    SAT 12Z 17-DEC  -6.4   -10.6    1004      91      91    0.54     537     534    SAT 18Z 17-DEC  -6.1   -11.4    1006      88      95             536     531    SUN 00Z 18-DEC  -7.4   -14.5    1010      78      98             531     523    SUN 06Z 18-DEC -11.7   -19.1    1016      71      99    0.58     522     510 

ORD-

FRI 12Z 16-DEC -11.6   -12.1    1026      68      98    0.01     548     528    FRI 18Z 16-DEC  -7.4    -9.1    1021      55      93    0.01     551     535    SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -6.4    -5.7    1013      70      83    0.04     549     538    SAT 06Z 17-DEC  -5.0    -4.4    1005      86      97    0.14     546     542    SAT 12Z 17-DEC  -3.3    -1.5    1002      91      72    0.23     546     544    SAT 18Z 17-DEC  -2.4    -3.0    1003      85      68             546     544    SUN 00Z 18-DEC  -5.7    -9.1    1008      87     100             541     535    SUN 06Z 18-DEC  -7.6   -12.9    1013      79     100    0.34     533     523    SUN 12Z 18-DEC -17.4   -18.3    1026      78      11    0.37     528     509

MSP-

FRI 06Z 16-DEC -16.1   -13.6    1026      78      98    0.02     539     520    FRI 12Z 16-DEC -13.3   -13.1    1020      80      98    0.04     540     524    FRI 18Z 16-DEC  -9.7   -13.1    1016      70      98    0.05     541     528    SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -9.9   -13.7    1012      85      99    0.17     538     529    SAT 06Z 17-DEC -10.6   -15.3    1010      85      96    0.37     533     525    SAT 12Z 17-DEC -13.8   -16.7    1014      78      99    0.43     530     520    SAT 18Z 17-DEC -16.3   -18.4    1019      63      99             526     511    SUN 00Z 18-DEC -19.7   -23.0    1023      71      87             518     501    SUN 06Z 18-DEC -25.7   -26.2    1028      73      43    0.43     513     493 

ALO-

FRI 06Z 16-DEC -11.0   -10.6    1026      67     100    0.03     548     529    FRI 12Z 16-DEC -10.2    -9.9    1020      61      93    0.03     549     534    FRI 18Z 16-DEC  -6.7    -6.2    1014      65      94    0.04     550     539    SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -7.0    -6.5    1007      83      87    0.12     545     539    SAT 06Z 17-DEC  -7.5    -8.6    1004      88      89    0.23     541     538    SAT 12Z 17-DEC  -9.3   -12.2    1007      85      88    0.26     540     534    SAT 18Z 17-DEC -12.3   -15.5    1013      80      93             537     527    SUN 00Z 18-DEC -17.2   -17.2    1021      76      95             530     515    SUN 06Z 18-DEC -24.2   -21.6    1028      71      42    0.26     523     503

[Money]

Is that over an inch qpf?