Tom Posted December 30, 2016 Report Share Posted December 30, 2016 Will this be another Dakotas Special or not??? That is the question...or will some of our posters in MN/WI get in on the action??? 12z Euro came in a little colder for those in MN/N WI... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016123012/ecmwf_T850_us_4.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016123012/ecmwf_T850_us_5.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2016 Report Share Posted December 30, 2016 Euro: 3-4 inch system for ND/SD 6-12 for northern WI 8-10 for eastern MN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2016 12z JMA also looks colder... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016123012/jma_T850_us_4.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016123012/jma_T850_us_5.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 30, 2016 Report Share Posted December 30, 2016 Anyone got QPF output from the Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2016 Report Share Posted December 30, 2016 Anyone got QPF output from the Euro? I don't have the exact numbers or anything but weatherbell has DBQ in the .6-.7 range or so for QPF. Temps generally in the 30's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 30, 2016 Report Share Posted December 30, 2016 Oh wow, didn't know it was showing that much QPF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2016 Report Share Posted December 30, 2016 Oh wow, didn't know it was showing that much QPF. Yeah, pretty much northern Iowa/WI all get .6-1.0 QPF on the 12z euro. Less farther south and in IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 30, 2016 Report Share Posted December 30, 2016 I was so ready to let go of any hope on this after the GFS and GGEM runs earlier today. And the Euro sucks me back in. Definitely all snow here and a great track from NW CO thru C WI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 30, 2016 Report Share Posted December 30, 2016 As I said yesterday, this thing has eyes on W. UP of Mich for max impacts..CPC outlining the coveted tri-fecta "bliz zone" Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 30, 2016 Report Share Posted December 30, 2016 18z NAM keeps the TC metro all snow now as well. Looks like a 2-4" event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2016 Report Share Posted December 30, 2016 Nice ice event on the nam for gosaints area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 30, 2016 Report Share Posted December 30, 2016 Riding the rain snow line. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted December 30, 2016 Report Share Posted December 30, 2016 Nice ice event on the nam for gosaints areaIf there's one person who deserves it.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 30, 2016 Report Share Posted December 30, 2016 If there's one person who deserves it....I like ice storms. doubt it materializes to much but would gladly take one. I dont mind rain in the winter either. I am glad you want to make me happy though.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2016 18z GFS still gun-ho on on a Dakotas/C&N MN special... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 30, 2016 Report Share Posted December 30, 2016 18z GFS still gun-ho on on a Dakotas/C&N MN special...Baby stepping in the right direction though, for those of us this far north. GFS is still the warm/west outlier. NAM/GGEM with fairly similar tracks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 18z GFS still gun-ho on on a Dakotas/C&N MN special... Has 3 flakes for mby!! Baby stepping in the right direction though, for those of us this far north. GFS is still the warm/west outlier. NAM/GGEM with fairly similar tracks.You should get at least a plowable event some here would kill for that. At least it's not cutting worse. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 0z NAM is way weaker/south and a bit colder. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016123100/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 00z nam. Another North Dakota northern Minnesota special. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 18z GFS HR 90: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016123018/090/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png 0z NAM HR 84: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016123018/084/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png One of them is a little off... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Difference in temps: GFS at HR 84: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016123018/084/sfct.conus.png NAM at HR 78: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016123018/084/sfct.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 RPM model loves the Dakotas/N MN...wrapped up system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 North Dakota getting socked again. Winter for the ages up there. Would like one of those in my lifetime 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Look at this map. So jealous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Gem has a 1009 low in Ohio at hr 84 The difference between the 3 models is insane Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Gem has a 1009 low in Ohio at hr 84 The difference between the 3 models is insaneKeeps it interesting Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Gem has a 1009 low in Ohio at hr 84 The difference between the 3 models is insaneVersus a 994 bomb in N WI at the same hour on the GFS. Just crazy. The trend has been NW so far this season. No reason to think otherwise now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Same timeframe 3 days out: GFS: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016123100/072/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016123100/072/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png Euro: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016123100/072/sfcmslp.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 HR 96: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016123100/096/sfcmslp.conus.png GFS: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016123100/096/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 This system is giving the models one tough time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Euro actually has barely any snow in minny/SD. .2-.3 QPF if that. Has .1-.2 qpf of frozen precip in N. IL it looks like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 This system is giving the models one tough time Yup. Euro QPF wise: .2-.35 in ND. .2-.4 for N. MN and .2-.4 for N. WI Much less than GFS and GGEM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 You know how much QPF around here? Thanks for anything you got. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 You know how much QPF around here? Thanks for anything you got. Less than .1 QPF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 By Day 5, both models end up having the storm in the same vacintiy in SE Canada....But...much different tracks is say! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 By Day 5, both models end up having the storm in the same vacintiy in SE Canada....But...much different tracks is say! This is why people who get upset/excited over model runs 6-7 days out are crazy. Things can change so fast, and vulnerable to run to run changes it's not worth getting upset over. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Less than .1 QPF.Seems to be the way this storm is headed. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Seems to be the way this storm is headed. Thanks. np, seems like DBQ is in the donut hole this run. There's .3-.4 QPF just to your SE and then .2 QPF or so up into WI but there's a stretch between DBQ and MSN of less than .1 qpf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Maybe Skilling was onto something...we shall see... kinda hard to discount the GFS though. Would be surprised if the Euro sticks to a SE shift and models cave given the GFS track record this season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 GFS is the only model that wraps up an Upper Midwest storm. 00z EPS suggesting this system ends up being a coastal storm! Model confusion??? FWIW, this system has the characteristics of the Dec 16th-18th storm where models over played the strength of the low and it ended up trending weaker and SE. Not sure what to think with this one. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016123100/ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_4.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016123100/ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_5.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016123100/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_5.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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