Money Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 0z GFS coming in a lot stronger farther west. Likely won't be a good run.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Another ND special this run...it's almost getting to be laughable (In a wierd way) how much of a magnet that region has been! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Its a beauty.... For fargo. If its a nice storm its gonna be north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Rain.. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010600/114/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Still hits Minny pretty good...St Paul does good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010600/114/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 GEM more wound up farther SE than GFS: http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Snow then rain then snow. Dont see that much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS actually gets it down to 982 in northern MI with some decent wrap around snow potential: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010600/126/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 The amount of wound up storms the Upper Midwest/Lakes have had this season is mind boggling and we ain't half way thru. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Here's total with wraparound snows: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010600/132/snku_acc.us_mw.png Temps dropping 20-25 degrees in 6 hours in some places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Still hits Minny pretty good...St Paul does good If I got only half of the snow the models showed 5 days out this winter I'd be a happy man. But I've seen this act before. When we wake up tomorrow and view the 6z runs this puppy is gonna be a Dakotas special. The NW trend is real. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 If I got only half of the snow the models showed 5 days out this winter I'd be a happy man. But I've seen this act before. When we wake up tomorrow and view the 6z runs this puppy is gonna be a Dakotas special. The NW trend is real.Ya I would side with your thinking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 00z GEFS showing a wound up warm cutter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 6z Gfs north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looks like middle fingers falling from the sky will win out 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 According to what Gary Lezak said in his blog this morning, I think this storm is correlating with the one that hit on Nov 17th-18th and is taking nearly the same identical track again which will target ND/MN and possibly a little more in WI than in the previous cycle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 The amount of wound up storms the Upper Midwest/Lakes have had this season is mind boggling and we ain't half way thru. They've wound-up (and been wound-up, lol) all winter north of Superior. Not sure that qualifies as "The Lakes". And with them so warm, the cold comes in late and thus we get LES in a sort of delayed reaction scenario. Still waiting for a storm like recent GGEM shows where the system's actually bombing and forcing cold air in with a low baro. Backside bliz conditions can be a nice consolation prize if you miss the synoptic hit, but the set-up is a rare one. Again, models have shown them wound-up over MI, but in reality they've ended up way west at their peak strength benefiting Dakotas and MN more than MI. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 They've wound-up (and been wound-up, lol) all winter north of Superior. Not sure that qualifies as "The Lakes". And with them so warm, the cold comes in late and thus we get LES in a sort of delayed reaction scenario. Still waiting for a storm like recent GGEM shows where the system's actually bombing and forcing cold air in with a low baro. Backside bliz conditions can be a nice consolation prize if you miss the synoptic hit, but the set-up is a rare one. Again, models have shown them wound-up over MI, but in reality they've ended up way west at their peak strength benefiting Dakotas and MN more than MI.Ok Mr. Technicality! LOL, you could put a "N" in front of "The Lakes" to make it more clearer. Getting a wound up storm to form to our SW is going to be really tough in this pattern we are in. Unless of course, things change in Feb and the AO really tanks as well as some better blocking near Greenland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Will be cutting through the arrowhead before nlong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Poof! Go the snow chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 epic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'll wave as this low passes to my NW on the 18z run. But hey, the 12z GFS now shows the system on the 12th makes up for the one that'll pass NW on the 10th. We're always a week away from a storm. Gotta love it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 hey it will still showing money cashing in for 1 more run. By 0z he will be on the outside looking in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Ok Mr. Technicality! LOL, you could put a "N" in front of "The Lakes" to make it more clearer. Getting a wound up storm to form to our SW is going to be really tough in this pattern we are in. Unless of course, things change in Feb and the AO really tanks as well as some better blocking near Greenland. Sure need that, don't we. Warning, the following map showing KTOL with over 2 feet is totally: Niko, we need a slight bump north buddy! #shades-of-67 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Sure need that, don't we. Warning, the following map showing KTOL with over 2 feet is totally: 20161107 Snow Clownage.png 20170107 GFS 0z 228hr snowfall.png Niko, we need a slight bump north buddy! #shades-of-67http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010600/240/snku_acc.us_mw.pngAll sleet in there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 GEM isn't quite buying the complete NW trend like the GFS, but it's on its way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010600/240/snku_acc.us_mw.pngAll sleet in there Slightly different than TT's map, eh? Fluke? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Slightly different than TT's map, eh? Fluke?Pivotal takes into account ratios using the kuchera method. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Sure need that, don't we. Warning, the following map showing KTOL with over 2 feet is totally: 20161107 Snow Clownage.png 20170107 GFS 0z 228hr snowfall.png Niko, we need a slight bump north buddy! #shades-of-67Not sure if I am reading the numbers right, but, that shows my area between 18-24". Man, that looks real snowy. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Not sure if I am reading the numbers right, but, that shows my area between 18-24". Man, that looks real snowy.Lol that run verbatim gave u a solid 4 inches of sleet. Its a 10:1 ratio map that counts anything frozen as snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 I don't have Euro access so I can't tell, but if there's precip with the low on the 12z run some of us could cash in. The low bombs out on its way from SW IA to Ontario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 I don't have Euro access so I can't tell, but if there's precip with the low on the 12z run some of us could cash in. The low bombs out on its way from SW IA to Ontario.Would think the EURO would look better for you than the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Wisconsin and MN cash in, everyone to the south gets nada. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 The EURO is good for msp-TUE 00Z 10-JAN -7.1 -4.8 1015 84 97 0.09 548 536 TUE 06Z 10-JAN -5.1 -6.1 1006 84 99 0.08 544 539 TUE 12Z 10-JAN -4.1 -4.0 997 84 100 0.09 538 540 TUE 18Z 10-JAN -3.5 -7.9 995 82 88 0.10 530 534 WED 00Z 11-JAN -12.9 -16.6 1006 75 95 0.16 522 518 WED 06Z 11-JAN -17.7 -17.0 1018 75 3 0.00 525 512 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looks good! Thanks for the text output. Much appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 The EURO is good for msp-TUE 00Z 10-JAN -7.1 -4.8 1015 84 97 0.09 548 536 TUE 06Z 10-JAN -5.1 -6.1 1006 84 99 0.08 544 539 TUE 12Z 10-JAN -4.1 -4.0 997 84 100 0.09 538 540 TUE 18Z 10-JAN -3.5 -7.9 995 82 88 0.10 530 534 WED 00Z 11-JAN -12.9 -16.6 1006 75 95 0.16 522 518 WED 06Z 11-JAN -17.7 -17.0 1018 75 3 0.00 525 512How does it look for kosh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Pivotal takes into account ratios using the kuchera method. I was posting it for clownage basically and good laughs cuz what gosaints said, TT map was counting 4-6" of sleet as snow :lol: Lol that run verbatim gave u a solid 4 inches of sleet. Its a 10:1 ratio map that counts anything frozen as snow. At least 4, maybe 6 But, that's the only way we can get a model to flash such huge snow totals lol Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 6, 2017 Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 Lol that run verbatim gave u a solid 4 inches of sleet. Its a 10:1 ratio map that counts anything frozen as snow. We shall see! UGH!! That would be awful if that were to happen. Watch we get a 2-3ft snowstorm and Jaster and I are the winners in this whole entire sub-forum. Ya neva know. Keep hope alive! :lol: Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.