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January 24th/25th Possible Winter Storm Probable Nebraska Screwjob

clintbeed1993

By clintbeed1993
in East of the Rockies

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Vertabim it doesnt amount to much this far east, only a 1/2 inch according to snowfall maps. I'd assume this is due to surface temps around 34-35.

Wouldn't take much to change that with this type of system. Still about 24 hours till start time.

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bud2380
bud2380

I live in Iowa. So I choose the north central region because it's the best view of Iowa. If you're gonna be a **** about I can stop posting and you can pay the $20/month to see it yourself.

Grizzcoat
Grizzcoat

Since I'am a nice guy-- here is MI along with New Brunswick for you and frankie macdonald..

hlcater
hlcater

Just noticed something, this map would likely be snow for quite a lot of IA, but eurowx is flagging it as rain because surface temps are 33-34, while temps at 925, 850 and 500 are all below zero(celsi

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
Posted

Wouldn't take much to change that with this type of system. Still about 24 hours till start time.

I would think with a low this strong and with relatively decent precip rates, there would be better dynamic cooling, maybe that's already being factored in, but could be under accounted for if this thing comes in stronger than expected.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Rgem not nearly nam amped

And here I thought they had fixed the NAM 'roids tendency

 

RGEM nailed the 11th over here in MI fwiw

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hoosier Mentor

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Long-time lurker here. Driving from Lincoln to Sidney, NE tomorrow for work. Should be interesting. Thanks to all of you who post regularly; you're a wealth of good info. I'll post from the road if I can.

I thought you were me for a sec... Hoosker and Hoosier, lol...

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
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One hell of a gradient in Iowa. Des Moines Iowa county, Polk, has 1.4 in southern part, 30 miles to north in northern Polk, nearly six inches!

No doubt...it seems to hold together while it heads east...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012400/gem_asnow_ncus_12.png

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gabel23 Mentor

gabel23

Posted
Posted

DMX talking potential for thundersnow....has generally 5-9" north of highway 20.

They are also siding with the Euro.

As did Hastings today.......

 

We`ve hoisted a Winter Wx Advisory for all the counties along Neb

Hwy 92 north to include Valley/Greeley/Nance as well.

 

However...it is important to understand that this is just our

first swing at highlighting the potential with this system. I

would venture to say it is likely this advisory will be expanded.

There is even a chance part of the fcst area may need to be

upgraded to a warning with little advance notice.

 

Fcst issues...

 

1) Fog. Low stratus has lingered from GRI-AUH and conds are

favorable for it to rapidly expand across the fcst area this eve.

Would not be surprised to see dense fog (vsby 1/4 mi or less).

 

2) Frzg drzl. Confidence is low on this. The soundings have the

look...but do temps even radiate to frzg? Temps made it into the

40s and 50s over much of the fcst area. Does this warmth radiate

away before clouds move in? Nudge low temps up. Gut feeling is

that we may have over-played this threat. Watch temperatures.

 

3) Thunder? It`s possible. There is enough elevated instability

that we could see some lightning late tonight. Mesoscale models

are indicating some mid-lvl convection after midnight tonight that

lifts across the fcst area in the morning.

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