March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[tim the weatherman]

EURO has -2° or -3° for ORD tonight. 

 

I was looking in my records more closely and there were 2 occasions it dropped below zero in March. 3/3/02 and 3/4/02 -2°, -9°.

 

Was just looking at the CFS outlook - 45 day. Now it has flipped to warm from the 14th - the 1st of April and then a cooler than average April out to 45 days.

Must be seeing a zonal flow courtesy of a +AO I think.

it will cool for 2 weeks in april then it will warm up and stay that way.

[Geos]

Interesting thought. Could go either way, IMO. If the models aren't used to snow cover this late in the year and that's influencing it, could make it have a cold or warm bias, so the argument could actually work both ways. What Geos is saying is that it's causing the models to think that the snow cover will keep temps colder when actually the sun will warm it up more like it always does this time of year, and what you're saying is that the models aren't used to this snow cover and therefore could actually be too warm because of that. Both make sense.

 

Yeah that's what I was getting at.

The sun goes to work on the air mass during the day and moderates it quickly this time of year. 

 

Lol, now that cold shot is even further east. Western Lakes are mild on the 15th.

 

As far as big dog snowstorms. Once we get to close to April 1st, it's pretty hard to do that anymore. Seems like within days of the equinox the chance are cut off for anything close to 10" or over.

[tim the weatherman]

Yeah that's what I was getting at.

The sun goes to work on the air mass during the day and moderates it quickly this time of year. 

 

Lol, now that cold shot is even further east. Western Lakes are mild on the 15th.

 

As far as big dog snowstorms. Once we get to close to April 1st, it's pretty hard to do that anymore.

i agree geos that once we get to the 15th of this month that we will getting into a warmer pattren that it will be harder for the polar vortex and by mid month the ao will be positive and no ridging over the bering sea and alaska so no blocking over greenland because of the neutral and positive nao and like tom saidthat there is going a neg nao by month's end that is not going to happend.

[East Dubzz]

Yeah that's what I was getting at.

The sun goes to work on the air mass during the day and moderates it quickly this time of year.

 

Lol, now that cold shot is even further east. Western Lakes are mild on the 15th.

 

As far as big dog snowstorms. Once we get to close to April 1st, it's pretty hard to do that anymore. Seems like within days of the equinox the chance are cut off for anything close to 10" or over.

I agree it's very difficult, but with a year like this, you never know for sure. Dubuque's biggest storm ever occurred in April.

 

On a side note, when that DVN met whiffed on his prediction for a major change, that actually made me feel a little better about my prediction that February may start off warmer, which didn't come true. If a professional met is allowed to be wrong, I most certainly can be wrong as well

[Tom]

12z GGEM...on board with a major storm early next week.

[Geos]

I was looking at the EURO and it tries to drag warmer air up with it, especially in the mid levels.

Mix type situation as it stands now. Maybe even straight freezing rain to begin with.

[Jaycee]

12z GGEM...on board with a major storm early next week.

D***. So far south. No models are looking good for us within 192 hrs.  Gah this is grinding my gears man, not a SINGLE storm this year, not one. 5" from a WWA isn't considered a "storm" to me. That'd be like light showers in spring if it happened then. This is just BS. I'm definitely taking a long break from weather tracking this year..

[tim the weatherman]

I was looking at the EURO and it tries to drag warmer air up with it, especially in the mid levels.

Mix type situation as it stands now. Maybe even straight freezing rain to begin with.

we need that warmer air down to the surface and not in the mid levels of the atmosphere to create freezing rains.

[Geos]

Very close with the GGEM too. Wintry mess.

 

 

Shallow cold air mass. Column will depend on how extensive WAA is and how deep snow cover is... and whether this is a day or night storm.

[Geos]

we need that warmer air down to the surface and not in the mid levels of the atmosphere to create freezing rains.

 

Ridge clears out of Alaska tomorrow. GFS taking the AO sky high now. Right now it looks like that is the type of system it will be.

 

[Iowawx]

12z GGEM...on board with a major storm early next week.

Tom, is surpresion possible with that storm if it happens? That's too far south for me. Does it show anything this weekend?

[tim the weatherman]

Ridge clears out of Alaska tomorrow. GFS taking the AO sky high now. Right now it looks like that is the type of system it will be.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

this is good news geos that this needs to happend because we are heading to spring by 2 weeks from this thursday so that means the ridge over alaska is moving west over siberia and by the15th the ao will be positive and i am thinking that it will stay that way beyond this point.

[james1976]

D***. So far south. No models are looking good for us within 192 hrs.  Gah this is grinding my gears man, not a SINGLE storm this year, not one. 5" from a WWA isn't considered a "storm" to me. That'd be like light showers in spring if it happened then. This is just BS. I'm definitely taking a long break from weather tracking this year..

What is your total snow for the season? You guys have been screwed bigtime. No way around that. I feel for ya.

[Money]

Tom, is surpresion possible with that storm if it happens? That's too far south for me. Does it show anything this weekend?

 

It could happen, but meh. Too far out that anything can happen.

 

You would need that HP to the north though otherwise it would cut pretty far NW, plus that high is supplying the colder weather to produce snow/freezing rain instead of plain old rain.

[Geos]

this is good news geos that this needs to happend because we are heading to spring by 2 weeks from this thursday so that means the ridge over alaska is moving west over siberia and by the15th the ao will be positive.

 

We don't need a torch though with the high water content snow around. The forecast in the next week looks good for a slow melt during the day when the sun is out.

 

Sun starting to break out here now in Racine.

[tim the weatherman]

the pna by the mid month will go into negative with a positive pdo so the ridging over alaska and the bering sea will collapse so a zonal flow will take place by the end of the month and the pdo will be positive.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

[Tony]

A little Euro/Canadian bonus snow this weekend

[Money]

1006 L in N Texas at HR 168. Looks like euro is gonna have another storm.

[East Dubzz]

Looks like some storm in starting to spin up by HR 180..

[Tom]

12z Euro looking a lot like the 12z GGEM for next Wednesday's system...

[Money]

1002 in OK at HR 196.

[Jaycee]

What is your total snow for the season? You guys have been screwed bigtime. No way around that. I feel for ya.

Around 12" total for the season man. Meaning about 1.2" precip for 4 months....

[Tom]

12z Euro spins up a strong storm up OV this run...still showing a good size storm somewhere in our region.

[Iowawx]

Euro storm next week gets suppressed and stays south at least for now.

[Geos]

Right now most of that EURO storm is rain for the OV. Fringe of snow/sleet/freezing rain on the NW side.

[Tom]

Just read Gary Lezak's blog and he mentioned that the pattern we saw around the Super Bowl period will be cycling through later this month into April and he does not expect a sudden change to warmer weather.  He is expecting more cold and snowy conditions into April for the Great Lakes region.  I have to agree with his prediction.

 

The big storm early next week is a part of the LRC that brought 2 significant storm systems in Nov and back in Jan.  If it repeats itself, the track would be close to N IL or somewhere nearby.

[CentralNebWeather]

I have really never followed the LRC but I am starting to believe it.  Living in Nebraska we usually have a large March blizzard or large snowstorm.  Some of our biggest storms in history happen in March.  We keep waiting for a storm to bring us the moisture that is do desperately needed for agriculture.  We are fortunate to have the Ogallala aquifer below which allows irrigation for some of the best soil on the planet.  However, farmers must pay for this water that is extremely expensive.  I am not a farmer but our community relies on farmers to buy products to keep the farm economy alive.  This pattern is so frustrating as storm after storm goes around Nebraska.  This is why Nebraskans on this board appear to be whining but actually are desperately wanting moisture.  Thanks for letting me vent.

[Iowawx]

Local station forecasting 44 here on Monday. That seems a little high to me.

[tim the weatherman]

first of all noaa has said in their oscillian and blocking forecast that the ao will go into positive state by the 15 of this month the pna will be going into neg state the aoo will go into pos state noa will be in pos state pdo will go into pos state and the blocking over alaska and the bering sea will be gone by the mid month so what gary lezak said is wrong if you don't believe me go to noaa climate prediction center and they'll tell ya

[Tom]

I could care less what NOAA says, you can make your own decision on what the wx pattern will do.  I have my own belief's and not hindering on the gov't to make my forecasts.

[BrianJK]

I could care less what NOAA says, you can make your own decision on what the wx pattern will do.  I have my own belief's and not hindering on the gov't to make my forecasts.

+1

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Teleconnections are not set in stone, nor are their affects on the weather.

[East Dubzz]

I could care less what NOAA says, you can make your own decision on what the wx pattern will do. I have my own belief's and not hindering on the gov't to make my forecasts.

#ThanksObama

[midwest buildit]

first of all noaa has said in their oscillian and blocking forecast that the ao will go into positive state by the 15 of this month the pna will be going into neg state the aoo will go into pos state noa will be in pos state pdo will go into pos state and the blocking over alaska and the bering sea will be gone by the mid month so what gary lezak said is wrong if you don't believe me go to noaa climate prediction center and they'll tell ya

not from you specifically, but this is like the fourth time this winter im hearing about a great warm up..And the last three times didn't happen..only time will tell if this one does.

 

and noaa said i was going to get 2-3" inches of snow that last storm, and i got 5".

[Geos]

first of all noaa has said in their oscillian and blocking forecast that the ao will go into positive state by the 15 of this month the pna will be going into neg state the aoo will go into pos state noa will be in pos state pdo will go into pos state and the blocking over alaska and the bering sea will be gone by the mid month so what gary lezak said is wrong if you don't believe me go to noaa climate prediction center and they'll tell ya

 

I think they will do better this time around. That pattern would lead to a broad eastern ridge with most of the cold in the west and far northern Plains. 

 

If the MJO continues to hang around where it is, I think that will further solidify that forecast.

 

EURO really cuts back on our snow cover and leaves less than 4" left by next Tuesday.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

noaa said here that we are still locked in a cold weather through the 19 of this month and these are the pics from their website from the cpc.

[Tom]

BTW, this is their 6-10 Day outlook...corrected colder for next week.

[Geos]

 

 

noaa said here that we are still locked in a cold weather through the 19 of this month and these are the pics from their website from the cpc.

 

 

It doesn't say how much below normal though. I would side heavily on, that the northeast and eastern Lakes get the full brunt of the coldest anomalies through late March.

 

CFS relaxes the anomalies the rest of the month after this week. 

[tim the weatherman]

BTW, this is their 6-10 Day outlook...corrected colder for next week.

i am thinking that after next week than the temps will be back to normal that we will be out of this below normal temps.

[Iowawx]

GFS barley shows any snow after tonight. Looks like we could be done with the snow aspect of this winter.